Bloomberg:
- Draghi Says No Alternative to Austerity as Economies Shrink. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said there is no alternative to austerity as Italian and
Spanish officials balk at asking for bailouts that may impose
more budget cuts. “It’s without doubt that the process of fiscal
consolidation has depressed output in parts of the euro area,”
Draghi told lawmakers in testimony to the European Parliament in
Brussels today. “But what’s the alternative? We need to do
that, we need to do that in the best possible way, as effective
and as short as possible, complying with basic grounds of social
justice.” European officials are pushing debt-strapped nations across
southern Europe for more cuts despite the risk that they will
worsen recessions gripping the region.
- Merkel Urges Greece to Maintain Austerity to Stay in Euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel used her first visit to
Athens in five years to maintain pressure on Greek Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras to meet austerity pledges, proclaiming her desire to
keep the country in the euro. The two leaders stood side by side
at a press conference as protesters massed outside the Parliament
building in a capital on virtual lockdown. Merkel has become the face of
austerity in a country suffering a fifth year of recession, which many
Greeks blame on German-led conditions attached to emergency loans. “I
want Greece to remain in the euro,” Merkel told reporters today halfway
through her six-hour visit. “A lot has been done, much remains to be
done.”
- U.K. Factory Output Declines More Than Forecast, Exports Plunge. U.K.
manufacturing fell more than economists forecast in August and the
trade gap widened, indicating the economy may struggle to regain
strength. Factory output dropped 1.1 percent from July, when it rose
3.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London.
The median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a
decline of 0.7 percent. Overall industrial output fell 0.5 percent,
matching economists’ forecasts. The goods-trade deficit widened as
exports fell. In a separate report, the goods-trade deficit widened to
9.84 billion
pounds ($15.8 billion) in August from 7.34 billion pounds in July.
Exports plunged 4 percent and imports rose 4.5 percent.
- Financial Job Losses Surpass 30,000 in Western Europe. Financial job losses in western Europe
surpassed 30,000 this year as firms including Royal Bank of Scotland
Group Plc and UBS AG cut positions amid the sovereign debt crisis. While the 33,437 reductions
are less than half of the 76,654 made in region during the same period a
year ago, analysts expect the cuts to increase. Financial firms have
announced more than 60,000 cuts globally so far this year, data compiled
by Bloomberg Industries show.
- Steel
Use in Europe Seen Down 10% as Budget Cuts Curb Building. Europe's
apparent steel consumption slid 10% in this year's first seven months as
budget cuts curbed construction projects and car sales stalled, the
European Steel Association said. Demand for rebar, reinforced steel bars
used by builders, slumped 47% in the period from five years earlier,
Jeroen Vermeij, director of market analysis and economic studies at the
European Steel Association, said today at the 7th EU Iron Ore Conference
in Vienna. Any improvement in Europe's steel market will only come in
the middle of 2013, Vermeij said. Regional consumption is unlikely to
return to 2007 rates and mills have excess production capacity estimated
at 60 million metric tons, according to Eurofer, as the association is
known. "We will never get back to these levels again," Vermeij said.
"This will be the new normal. If your're a rebar producer, your're in
for difficult times."
- European Stocks Retreat as EU Finance Ministers Meet. European
stocks declined for a second day as the region’s finance ministers
gathered in Luxembourg to discuss the sovereign-debt crisis. Bankia SA
(BKIA) led the decline, falling to a two-month low. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)
SA dropped to the lowest in at least 23 years as Credit Suisse Group AG
said weakness should continue into the third quarter. Vedanta Resources
Plc led mining companies higher, limiting losses in Europe.
- Oil Rises as Middle East Tension Counters IMF Growth. Oil advanced for the first time in three days as increasing tension in the Middle East countered concern that a global economic slowdown will curb demand. Crude rose as much as 3.5 percent as Turkey sent more tanks and missile defense systems to the Syrian border yesterday. The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts today as the euro area’s debt crisis escalates. The spread between West Texas Intermediate oil traded in New York and Brent from the North Sea reached the highest level in almost a year. Crude oil for November delivery increased $2.93, or 3.3 percent, to $92.26 a barrel at 12:14 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose as much as $3.09 to $92.42 today. Brent oil for November settlement gained $2.56, or 2.3
percent, to $114.38 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures
Europe exchange.
- Baidu(BIDU) Leads ADR Drop as IMF Cuts Global Outlook: China Overnight.
Chinese stocks in New York slid to a two-week low as the International
Monetary Fund reducing its global growth estimates clouded the outlook
for the world’s largest exporter. Baidu Inc. (BIDU), owner of China’s
most-popular search engine, sank to a three-month low after Credit
Suisse Group AG became the third bank to cut its rating this month. China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) fell for the first time in six days to trade at
the biggest discount to its Hong Kong stock in two weeks.
- Iron
Ore Seen Dropping Back to $100 on Worldwide Slowdown. Iron ore may fall
back to $100 a dry metric ton or lower next year as the global economic
slowdown hurts demand while output increases, according to the China
Metallurgical Industry Planning & Research Institute. "The
economic situation in the world and China isn't good enough to support a
sustained price rebound," said Li Xinchuang, president of the
Beijing-based company, which advises the Chinese government and steel
mills. The target from Li, who's also executive vice secretary-general
of China Iron & Steel Association, is 9.4% below yesterday's
price. "New production capacity is coming out a lot" as current iron ore
prices remain above the output costs at so-called major mining
companies, Li said today. Production costs at the top five mining
companies are about $40 a dry ton, implying prices could go lower as
demand weakens, said Li. Stockpiles at major Chinese ports including
Tianjin and Qingdao have risen to about 100 million tons from about 94
million tons at the end of June, Li said.
- Toyota-Led Slump May Drag China Car Sales Growth to 8-Month Low. Chinese
passenger-vehicle sales
probably rose at their slowest pace in eight months as a
territorial dispute with Japan turned consumers away from buying
cars made by Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) to Nissan Motor Co. (7201) The
state-backed auto association will probably say deliveries increased 2
percent to 1.35 million units last month, based on the average
estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Toyota and Nissan
yesterday reported their biggest drops in China sales since at least
2008, while Honda Motor Co. (7267)’s sales were the lowest since May
2011, according to monthly
data compiled by Bloomberg.
- Wheat Climbs as U.S. May Cut Supply Estimates; Soy, Corn Gain. Wheat
futures rose for the second
straight day on speculation that the U.S. may lower its forecasts for
global supplies as dry weather damages crops from Russia to Australia.
Soybeans and corn also gained.
- Confidence Among Small U.S. Businesses Cooled in September. Confidence
among U.S. small
businesses cooled in September as fewer companies said they
planned to hire or invest in new equipment, a survey found. The National
Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index fell to 92.8 from
an August reading of 92.9. Four of the 10 components that make up the
gauge decreased, the Washington- based group said. The fourth
decline in the past five months for the measure showed business leaders
may be putting off some of their hiring and investment decisions because
of a lack of clarity on tax and
regulatory policy.
- Treasuries Gain by Most in Three Weeks After IMF Cuts Forecasts. Treasury 10-year notes rose the most
in three weeks after the International Monetary Fund cut its
economic forecasts and said there is an “alarmingly high” risk
of a steeper slowdown. The gains pushed 30-year bond yields down from almost the
highest level in more than two weeks as investors sought the
securities as a haven. U.S. debt was also buoyed as European
Union ministers prepared to meet in Luxembourg amid a lack of
clarity about whether Spain will ask for external financial aid.
The U.S. plans to sell three-year notes today, the first of
three auctions of coupon-bearing Treasuries this week totaling
$66 billion.
- U.S. Charges 530 in Mortgage Probe With $1 Billion in Losses. The U.S. charged 530 people with
targeting homeowners in mortgage schemes that cost the victims
more than $1 billion, Attorney General Eric Holder said today. More
than 73,000 homeowners around the country were affected, the Justice
Department said in a statement. The cases, brought over the past year,
included “foreclosure rescue
schemes” that take advantage of those who have fallen behind on
payments, according to the statement.
- Owens Corning(OC) cuts full-year earnings forecast. Owens
Corning trimmed its earnings forecast for the year due to weakness in
its roofing and composites businesses. Shares of the construction and
industrial-materials company dropped more than 7 percent in premarket
trading Tuesday. Owens
Corning now anticipates adjusted earnings before interest and taxes
between $280 million and $310 million. It previously predicted $360
million to $420 million. The Toledo, Ohio, company previously
announced that there was weakness in the U.S. roofing shingle market
late in the second quarter. That trend continued into the third quarter.
The company says shipments fell after a price hike in the middle of
September and are not expected to get better for the rest of the year. The
company says composites demand in the second half of 2012 will be hurt
by softness in the U.S. roofing market and lower industrial production,
particularly in Europe. Owens Corning cut its 2012 global glass fiber
market demand growth estimate to about 3 percent. The long-term average
growth rate historically is 5 percent.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- Is Housing Recovering as Much as Everyone Thinks? "While we have seen many dramatic headlines
touting the housing recovery over the last 3.5 years, these headlines
and the analysts who author them have been over- predicting changes in
the housing market (versus what actually occurred)." said Laurie Goodman
of Amherst Securities in a new report. "Recoveries,
with attendant price increases, were anticipated in the spring and
summer of 2009, 2010 and 2011; by the fall and winter the predictions of
price changes were amended to reflect further price declines. In
actuality, after netting out the seasonal factors, home prices have been
little changed in the past few years."
- Prepping for Obamacare, Chain Cuts Workers' Hours. The owner of Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants is putting more
workers on part-time status in a test aimed at limiting the impact of
looming health coverage requirements.
- Latest Casualty of Mixed Economic Outlook: Business Travel. With more questions than answers about what to expect with the U.S. and
European economies for the rest of this year and early next year,
companies are pulling back on business travel.
- Langone Takes Welch’s Side: Jobs Numbers ‘Don’t Square’. Government numbers showing the unemployment rate has fallen under 8
percent for the first time in nearly four years don't reflect actual
business conditions, venture capitalist Ken Langone said on CNBC.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- Japanese Car Sales Plummet in China.
Toyota announced on Tuesday that its sales to dealerships in China
dropped 49 percent in September from the same month a year ago, while
Honda said that its sales had fallen 40 percent and Nissan said that
sales were down 35 percent. Mazda said last week that its sales had
fallen 35 percent last month.
Gallup:
Reuters:
- US Treasury watchdog probes solar tax grant program. The Treasury
Department's inspector general is investigating a popular
stimulus program that allowed rooftop solar panel projects to
turn tax credits into cash grants.The Treasury's internal watchdog is looking at how the
department managed the program and is searching for "possible misrepresentations" about the fair market value of solar systems
that received grants, one large installer of solar panels
disclosed in a filing with U.S. regulators. The inspector general issued subpoenas to SolarCity Corp and
other big players in the market, working with the Justice
Department's civil division, San Mateo, California-based
SolarCity said in a filing late last week.
- S&P sees lower 2013 growth for US state and local govts. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said on
Tuesday it expected state and local governments in the United
States to grow less in 2013 than previously forecast. Cuts in public sector workforces as well as a focus by
families on fixing their budgets instead of spending are key
factors in the reduced growth expectations, S&P said in a
report.
- Spanish yields rise as bailout prospects dim. Spanish bond yields rose on
Tuesday when investors trimmed expectations of a swift solution
to Madrid's debt problems while the country's politicians resist
seeking a bailout.
- Eleven euro states back financial transaction tax.
Eleven euro zone countries agreed on Tuesday to press ahead with a
disputed tax on financial transactions aimed at making traders share the
cost of fixing a crisis that has rocked the single currency area.
Financial Times:
- Syrian massacre is veiled in silence. The
Syrian forces told Um Mohammed they would be back in an hour with her
husband and sons, along with the other men they snatched from the
basement shelter in the Damascus suburb of Daraya. Instead, she said,
they shot them all.
Telegraph:
Les Echos:
- France's
wealth tax should include artworks, Christian Eckert, the National
Assembly's rapporteur on budget affairs, said in an interview.
ShanghaiDaily.com:
- Shanghai's Consumer Confidence Drops. WEAKER internal and external demand as well as less willingness to spend
have dented Shanghai's consumer confidence in the third quarter, a
survey showed yesterday. The Index of Consumer Sentiment
dropped 4.4 points quarterly to 100.6 in the three months ended
September 30, the first fall since the second quarter of last year,
according to studies conducted by Shanghai University of Finance and
Economics. A reading above 100 indicates optimism and the contrary points to a lack of confidence. The Index of Consumer Expectations shed 4.4 percent from the earlier
three months to 98.6 points as the dismal global economic outlook has
created uncertainties and reduced consumers' hopes about the future. Of
the 1,000 consumers surveyed by the university, 72.8 percent considered
it a bad time to buy a home in the next six months on wide expectations
that home prices may fall.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformer:
- 1) Medical Equipment -3.31% 2) Computer -2.50% 3) Homebuilding -2.10%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
- PVA,
LPI, DTV, FULT, FXEN, PHK, SAND, EW, PHT, OPTR, OC, BECN, LUX, PCN,
PRGS, ANGO, PAY, PTY, WPC, ACWI, CYT, SCSC, AMAG, NFLX, AFSI, ZMH, BIDU,
ISRG, ARTC, CHUY and VMW
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) PHM 2) VMW 3) EWJ 4) PAY 5) XLV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) NFLX 2) TEX 3) ISRG 4) BKS 5) ISIL
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Oil Service +.59% 2) Steel +.46% 3) REITs -.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- GPOR, NFX, SPB, CLF and QCOR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) NRG 2) LLY 3) ALXA 4) SCO 5) MMM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) TUES 2) NEM 3) AXP 4) TXN 5) LMT
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump. The International Monetary Fund cut
its global growth forecasts as the euro area’s debt crisis
intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless officials
in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies. The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the
slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the
IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in
2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now
sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, with a
one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent. “A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting
another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a
slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a
more lasting component,” the IMF said in its World Economic
Outlook report. “The answer depends on whether European and
U.S. policy makers deal proactively with their major short-term
economic challenges.”
- Rajoy’s Deepening Budget Black Hole Outpaces Spain Deficit Cuts. The
black hole in Spain’s budget has
grown faster than Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s attempt to cut it,
portending the same dynamic that has squeezed Greece. The harshest
austerity since the return to democracy in 1978 has failed to contain
the deficit as the economy sinks deeper into recession. The
shortfall rose in the first half of the year, as it did in the previous
12 months. Even after a sales-tax increase and health-care cuts kick in
this quarter, it may still approach last year’s 9.4 percent of gross
domestic product, said Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, an economist at the
independent Applied Economic Research Foundation in Madrid. The fiscal and political consequences of demanding austerity in a shrinking economy highlight the dilemma facing Rajoy. To
trigger a European financial lifeline, he may have to impose yet more
cuts, repeating the pattern seen in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. “There
is no chance that Spain will hit its targets,” Megan Greene, director
of European economics at Roubini Global
Economics LLC, said in a telephone interview. “The deficit
targets are economic suicide.”
- Spain Foreclosures Spread to Once Wealthy: Mortgages. Home
foreclosures in Spain, which
disproportionately affected lower-income immigrants after the
real estate bubble burst, are spreading to formerly well-to-do families
and businessmen as they run out of ways to pay mortgages in a deepening
recession. Spanish business people, upper middle class families and
their loan guarantors, typically parents of first-time buyers, now
account for 60 percent of foreclosures in Madrid, according to AFES,
an association that advises homeowners facing repossession. Three years
ago, 80 percent of foreclosures were on the homes of immigrants,
usually the first to lose jobs and fall behind on loan payments in a
souring economy. They now comprise 40 percent of the total, according to
AFES. “Repossessions are encroaching further into the city
centers, like an overflowing river,” said Emilio Miravet, head
of real estate finance at the Spanish property unit of advisory
and investment firm Catella AB. “At the beginning of the
crisis, it was homes in the periphery areas belonging to the
less affluent that were being foreclosed upon.”
- Fiat to Cut Forecasts for European Auto Market, CEO Says. Fiat SpA (F) will cut its outlook for the
European auto market when the company updates its five-year plan
that runs through 2014, Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne said. To assume that the Fiat’s outlook for Europe is going to be
confirmed “is nonsense because the market won’t be there,”
Marchionne told reporters yesterday in Columbus, Ohio. “We will
be updating our forecasts for ’13 and ’14 as a consequence.”
- Depositors Fleeing Euro Get Negative Rates at State Street, BNY.
State Street Corp. (STT) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., two of the
world’s biggest custody banks, will charge depositors to hold Danish
kroner and Swiss francs as customers seek refuge from the
crisis-stricken euro. “It does look customer-unfriendly, but since State
Street’s mainly dealing with institutions I would think that people
would be more understanding,” said Richard Herring, a professor of
international banking at the University of Pennsylvania. “The overall problem is the distortions that are
caused by the monetary policies that are being pursued in the
major countries.”
- China’s Copper Consumption Set to Drop 8.5% in 2012, Hunt Says. Copper consumption in China will
contract this year for the first time since 2008 as demand
falters and inventories climb in the largest user, before
rebounding in 2013, according to Simon Hunt Strategic Services. Consumption will decline about 8.5 percent to 5.6 million
metric tons in 2012, said Simon Hunt, chief executive officer of
the Weybridge, Surrey-based consultancy, which compiles research
and analysis on the global market. Next year, usage may expand
about 5.6 percent to 5.9 million tons, Hunt said in an interview
in Singapore after visiting China for two weeks last month. Hunt’s assessment adds to signs that China’s slowdown is
hurting demand for commodities. “The safety valve of exports has gone, the domestic
economy is slowing down, they have a problem of surplus capacity
and cash is extraordinarily tight,” said Hunt, who estimated
total copper reserves in China at 3.5 million tons, including
reported and unreported stockpiles. “There are no signals of a
recovery in heavy industry and manufacturing.” “There’s huge amount of inventories of all types,” said
Hunt, whose visit to China included one of the top five power-
cable makers. “You walk round and trip over drums of cables.”
- India Growth to Drop to Decade Low Amid High Inflation, IMF Says.
Indian growth may weaken to a decade-
low this year after investment stalled, the International Monetary Fund
said, as it called for interest rates to remain unchanged until the
nation’s high inflation rate eases. Gross domestic product will rise
4.9 percent in 2012, less than a July forecast of 6.1 percent, the
Washington-based lender said in its World Economic Outlook report today.
The expansion will accelerate to 6 percent next year, it said, helped
by improving overseas markets and a boost to confidence from a recent
government policy revamp. “The outlook for India is unusually
uncertain,” the IMF said. “Monetary policy should stay on hold until a
sustained decrease in inflation materializes.” Indian inflation probably accelerated to 7.71 percent in
September, a nine-month high, according to a Bloomberg News
survey before a report due Oct. 15.
- N. Korea Says Its Rockets Capable of Hitting U.S. Continent. A North Korean military official said
the totalitarian country has rockets capable of hitting the U.S.
as well as American military bases in Japan and Guam. An
unidentified National Defense Commission official made the statement in
the state-run Korean Central News Agency in response to the U.S. this
month agreeing to let South Korea extend the range of its ballistic
missiles to 800 kilometers
(497 miles) to protect against a possible attack from the North.
Wall Street Journal:
- Huawei Fires Back at the U.S. Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Inc. lashed out
Monday at a scathing congressional report, calling allegations that it
may be spying on Americans and violating U.S. laws "little more than an
exercise in China-bashing." Huawei and a second Chinese telecom,
ZTE Corp., launched aggressive global campaigns to counter the
conclusions of the House intelligence committee report, which warned
U.S. companies against doing business with the two firms.
- Stress for Banks, As Tests Loom. U.S.
banks and the Federal Reserve are battling over a new round of
"stress tests" even before the annual exams get going later this fall.
The clash centers on the math regulators are using to produce the
results. Bankers want more detail on how the calculations are made, and
the Fed thus far has resisted disclosing more than it has already.
- Iran Raises Rhetoric Against Israel. Iran accused Israel of launching cyberattacks on its oil facilities and
derided the Jewish state's air defenses, although it didn't take
responsibility for a drone that entered the Jewish state's airspace
Saturday before Israel shot it down.
- Obama Is Urged to Get Tough. Supporters Disagree Over Debate Approach as Poll Finds Romney Taking the Lead.
- Romney's World. A contrast with Obama on the benefits of U.S. global leadership.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
CNN:
Pew Research Center:
- Romney 49%, Obama 45% Among Likely Voters. Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead. GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas. By about three-to-one, voters
say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the
Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on
most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate
who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the
jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last
Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better.
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Nikkei:
- Japan
Plans to Increase Remote Island Defenses. The nation's defense ministry
is strengthening efforts to protect remote islands, citing a Defense
Ministry official. U.S. and Japanese defense chiefs last month agreed to
cooperate more in dealing with China.
China Securities Journal:
- Buying,
Holding China Stocks Not Top Choice. The strategy of buying and holding
China's stocks isn't the top choice now as market trends aren't
"clear," China Securities Journal published on its front page a
commentary written by Wei Jing, a reporter at the newspaper.
Evening Recommendations Bernstein:
- Downgraded (INTC) to Underperform, target $20.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.25 +.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.25 unch.
- FTSE-100 futures +.19%.
- S&P 500 futures +.19%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CVX)/3.06
- (YUM)/.97
- (AA)/.00
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September is estimated to rise to 93.5 versus 92.9 in August.
10:00 am EST
- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 51.8 in September.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Italian GDP report, Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting, ECB's Draghi
speaking, weekly retail sales report, 3Y T-Note auction, Deutsche Bank
Leveraged Finance Conference, (BAX) analyst day, (FDX) investors/lenders
meeting, (FISV) investor conference and the (WOR) investor day could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is
25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Volume: Light
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- VIX 15.26 +6.49%
- ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +29.07%
- Total Put/Call .82 -9.89%
- NYSE Arms 1.02 -17.38%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 bps +.15%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 182.50 bps +2.16%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 135.93 bps -1.15%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 214.50 bps +.06%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 25.5 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
- Yield Curve 148.0 unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $110.40/Metric Tonne +5.95%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.40 -.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -51 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's
overall market action is bearish as the
S&P 500 trades lower on rising global growth fears, high
food/energy prices,
earnings worries, growing Mid-east unrest, China/Japan
tensions, rising US election uncertainty and US "fiscal cliff" worries.
On
the positive side, Coal, Steel, Retail and Restaurant shares are
especially strong, rising more than +.5%. The Transports are also
relatively firm. Oil is falling -.2%, gold is down -.3% and the
UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -.45%. Brazilian shares are bouncing
+.9% today after recent losses. On
the negative side, Oil Tanker, Semi, Biotech, Construction and
Homebuilding shares are especially weak, falling more than -1.0%. Lumber
is falling -.6% and Copper is falling +1.3%. Major Asian indices were
lower overnight, led down by a -1.21% decline
in India. Major European indices are lower today, weighed down by a
-2.0% decline in Italy. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services
Index is -1.7%. The Spain 10Y Yld is rising +.5% to 5.71% and the
Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is gaining +1.95% to 360.31 bps. The US
sovereign cds is down -.4% to 41.5 bps, but has soared +53.4% since
9/19. The UBS/Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is up +21.6% since 6/1. The benchmark China Iron/Ore Spot Index is down -39.0% since 9/7/11. The China Hot Rolled Steel Sheet Spot Index
also continues to trend lower despite the recent bounce. As well,
copper, oil and lumber continue to trade poorly given equity investor
perceptions that the Eurozone has successfully kicked-the-can, housing
has hit a major bottom and global central bank stimuli will boost
economic growth in the near future. US weekly retail sales have decelerated to a sluggish rate at +2.4%. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index has shown meaningful deceleration since early July. Moreover,
the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the
same level since May 2010 despite investor perceptions of a big
improvement in the nationwide housing market. The Baltic Dry Index has
plunged around -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around
-50.0% ytd. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +343.0% ytd. Oil tanker rates have plunged, with the benchmark Middle East-to-US voyage down to 22.50 industry-standard worldscale points, which is very near the lowest since May, 2009.
The 10Y T-Note continues to trade too well during the recent equity rally. There still appears to be a fairly high level of complacency among US investors regarding the deteriorating macro backdrop. It remains unclear to me whether or not Germany will destroy its own balance sheet or allow the ECB to monetize debt in a
major way in an attempt to "save" the euro even as investors continue to price this outcome into stocks. Massive tax hikes and spending cuts have still yet to hit in several key eurozone countries that are already in recession. A lack of economic competitiveness and growth incentives remain unaddressed problems. The European debt crisis is also really affecting emerging market economies now, which will further pressure exports from the region and further raise the odds of more sovereign/bank downgrades after the US election. I continue to believe that China's problems are much larger than commonly perceived
and cannot be solved with another massive stimulus package given their
real estate bubble, rising food prices/labor costs, massive
overcapacity in certain key parts of the economy and growing bad loans
problem. Little being done by global central bankers will actually boost global economic growth to an extent that overcomes the growing
macro headwinds over the intermediate-term, in my opinion. Over the intermediate-term the Fed's recklessness
greatly increases the chances of hard-landings in key emerging markets
and of a serious global stock swoon, in my opinion. Moreover,
uncertainty surrounding the effects on business of Obamacare, the "US
fiscal cliff" and rising election outcome uncertainty will likely become
more and more of a focus for US investors into the fourth quarter. The Mid-east continues to unravel at an alarming rate, as well.
The quality of the stock rally off the June lows remains poor as
breadth, volume, leadership, lack of big volume/gainers and
copper/lumber/transports relative weakness all continue to be concerns. Thus,
recent market p/e multiple expansion on global central bank
stimulus/action hopes, has created an unstable situation for equities,
which could become a big problem unless a significant macro
catalyst materializes soon. For this year's equity advance to regain
traction, I would expect to see further European credit gauge
improvement, a subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets,
a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower food/energy
prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution, a calming in Mid-east and
China/Japan tensions, less US election uncertainty and higher-quality
stock market leadership. I
expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from
current levels on rising global growth fears, earnings worries, Japan
& China/Mideast tensions, more shorting, more shorting, rising US
election uncertainty, profit-taking and US "fiscal cliff" concerns.
Bloomberg:
- Europe Starts $648 Billion Aid Fund, Rules Out Immediate Use. European governments set up a full-
time 500 billion-euro ($648 billion) fund to aid debt-swamped
countries and, not for the first time in the three-year crisis,
expressed confidence that the extra financial muscle won’t be
needed anytime soon. Finance ministers from the 17 euro countries declared the
European Stability Mechanism operational, while saying that Spain, its biggest potential near-term customer, isn’t on the
verge of tapping it. Decisions were also put off on Greece’s
next aid payment and on an assistance program for Cyprus.
- European Stocks Retreat Most This Month; Cookson Sinks. European
stocks dropped the most this month as the World Bank cut its East Asian
growth forecast and investors awaited a meeting of euro-area finance
ministers for signs on how they will tackle the debt crisis. Cookson
Group Plc (CKSN) sank 12 percent as the world’s biggest maker of
ceramic linings for metal smelters said annual results will miss its
forecasts. KBC Groep NV (KBC) retreated 5.2 percent as the bank’s
strategy update disappointed investors. Eurobank Ergasias SA advanced
5.1 percent after a takeover offer from National Bank of Greece SA.
(ETE). The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1 percent to 271.43 at the close of trading, the largest decline since Sept. 28.
- Bearish
France Bets at 14-Month High to DAX on Budget: Options. Options traders
are sending the cost of protecting against a decline in French stocks
to the highest level in more than a year relative to German equities
after President Francois Hollande's first annual budget raised taxes on
big companies and the rich.
- Spending Cuts No Longer Yield Earnings Growth at U.S. Companies.
Profit gains earned through job cuts and factory closings in the
absence of a global economic recovery are starting to reach their limit.
Third-quarter profits and sales for the Standard & Poor’s 500
Index (SPX) probably fell in unison for the first time in three years,
according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Per-share
earnings may have dropped 1.7 percent on average after they were little
changed in the second quarter. Sales may have slipped 0.6 percent,
the data show. While most companies plan to keep a lid on spending,
lower expenses aren’t leading to the same kinds of increases they
reported earlier this year. Hewlett-Packard Co., the world’s largest
personal-computer maker, already forecast full-year profit that trailed
analysts’ estimates, FedEx Corp. (FDX) cut its annual earnings forecast
and Intel Corp. (INTC) projected lower third- quarter sales, with all
three citing softening demand. “A lot of the earnings growth that
we’ve seen has been related to cost reductions,” said Peter Jankovskis,
co-chief investment officer for Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois,
which manages more than $3 billion. “Now many of those cost reduction
efforts have run their course. Without revenue growth, there is no room
for profit to expand further.”
- Hedge Funds Cutting Trading Budgets Amid Slump, Survey Finds. Hedge
funds are cutting trading costs amid a decline in volumes and muted
performance for the $2.1 trillion industry, a survey found.
Forty-four percent of hedge funds polled by Greenwich Associates said
they will spend less on their trading desks than in 2011, according to a
statement released by the Stamford, Connecticut-based company today.
About 40 percent of hedge funds
said their trading budgets would be unchanged this year, while
17 percent plan an increase, the survey found.
- Traders Eye Grain Prices Rebound as Supply Set to Tighten. Grain prices that tumbled in recent
weeks may rebound as demand stays robust while global stockpiles tighten after drought hurt crops from the U.S. to Russia.
- California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules.
Gasoline closing in on a record $5 a gallon prompted Governor Jerry
Brown to direct California regulators to relax smog controls so oil
refineries could increase supplies of cheaper fuel. Regular gasoline in California surged to an average $4.668 a gallon, an all-time high and 22 percent more than the U.S.
average, according to data today from AAA, the nation’s largest
motoring organization. Some stations were charging as much as
$5.89 in the Big Sur area, according to GasBuddy.com.
- Romney Tied With Obama in 3-Day Post-Debate Poll. Republican Mitt Romney has pulled even with President Barack
Obama since their first presidential debate, overcoming a narrow
advantage Obama had held, according to Gallup’s daily tracking survey. In
the three days after the Obama-Romney debate on Oct. 3, Gallup found 47
percent of registered voters supporting the president and 47 percent
backing his Republican rival. In the three days before the Denver
debate, Obama held a 50-45- percentage-point advantage over Romney, the
polling found.
- UnitedHealth(UNH) to Buy Brazil Insurer Amil for $4.9 Billion. UnitedHealth Group Inc., the biggest
U.S. health insurance company, agreed to pay about $4.9 billion
to buy 90 percent of Amil Participacoes SA (AMIL3), a Brazil-based
insurer and hospital chain that gives the American company a
stake in the world’s second-biggest emerging economy.
- Lilly(LLY) Alzheimer’s Drug Slows Mental Decline, Study Finds. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)’s experimental
Alzheimer’s treatment slowed memory loss and cognitive decline
in early-stage patients by about 30 percent, offering the first
evidence that a medication may hamper the course of the ailment,
researchers said.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Bespoke:
NewsMax:
Reuters:
- Iran would need 2-4 months to amass bomb material - think tank. Iran would currently need at least
two to four months to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for
one nuclear bomb, and additional time to make the device itself,
a U.S. security institute said on Monday. Estimates of how quickly Iran could enrich its uranium to
the fissile level required for bombs are closely watched as they
may give an indication of how much time its foes believe they
have to prevent it obtaining nuclear weapons, if and when it
decided to do so.
- Turkish president says "worst case" unfolding in Syria. Turkish
President Abdullah Gul said on Monday the "worst-case scenarios" were
now playing out in Syria and Turkey would do everything necessary to
protect itself, as its army
fired back for a sixth day after a shell from Syria flew over the
border. Gul said the violence in Turkey's southern neighbour, where
a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad has evolved into a
civil war that threatens to draw in regional powers, could not
go on indefinitely and Assad's fall was inevitable. "The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in
Syria ... Our government is in constant consultation with the
Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately
as you see, and it will continue to be done," Gul said.
- Copper falls to week-low on strong dollar, demand uncertainty.
Telegraph:
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- German
Chancellor Angela Merkel won't make any promises about supporting
additional financial aid for Greece when visiting the country tomorrow,
citing officials.
Nikkei:
- Suzuki
Sept. China Sales Plunge -44.5%. The decline accelerated in mid-Sept.
as anti-Japan protests grew, citing the co. The company still expects
-20.0% y/y declines in coming months.
