Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Coal +1.59% 2) Road & Rail +.89% 3) Airlines +.77%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- KEY, EWBC, ECA, OEH, AEGR, ETH, WCC, EBAY, LZB, JNPR, LRCX, TRV, DF and BAS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) LAMR 2) JNPR 3) RDN 4) MNKD 5) ALGN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) MGM 2) APH 3) AXP 4) DD 5) S
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Spain Banks Face More Losses as Worst-Case Scenario Turns Real. Spain’s
banks face more loan losses as the pace of an economic slump risks
turning a worst-case scenario dismissed in stress tests into reality.
Bad loans as a proportion of total loans reached a record 9.86 percent,
or 169.3 billion euros ($222.1 billion), in July, and may rise further
when the Bank of Spain publishes data for August at about 10 a.m. in
Madrid. The ratio, which has risen for 16 straight months, climbed
from 0.72 percent in December 2006 before Spain’s property boom turned
to bust. Spanish bank stress tests by management consultants Oliver
Wyman have factored in an economic contraction totaling 6.5 percent
between 2012 and 2014 in an adverse scenario that the government and
Bank of Spain said has a probability of about 1 percent. Analysts at
Nomura and Citigroup disagree, saying spending cuts and economic
conditions mean the worst-case outcome already looks feasible. “You
can’t attach a 1 percent probability to a scenario that already looks
realistic,” Silvio Peruzzo, a European area economist at Nomura in London, said in a telephone interview
yesterday. Spain’s gross domestic product will shrink by 6.2
percent between 2012 and 2014, he estimated. Spain’s request for 100 billion euros of European Union
financial aid to shore up its banks is increasing concern about
the nation’s growing liabilities.
- U.S. to Get Downgraded Amid Fiscal ‘Theater,’ Pimco Says. The sovereign credit rating of the
U.S. will be cut as “fiscal theater” plays out in the world’s
biggest economy, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.,
which runs the world’s largest bond fund. “The U.S. will get downgraded, it’s a question of when,”
Scott Mather, Pimco’s head of global portfolio management, said
today in Wellington. “It depends on what the end of the year
looks like, but it could be fairly soon after that.”
- Lenovo Sees Global PC Slowdown as Reason to Go Into Smartphones. Lenovo
Group Ltd. (992) said slowing demand in the personal-computer market,
where it overtook Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) as the global leader last
quarter, is good
reason for the company to expand into smartphones. The PC maker is already the second-largest smartphone maker
in its home market of China and plans to capture the top spot,
surpassing Samsung Electronics Co., Milko Van Duijl, Lenovo’s
president for the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions, said
in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
- Chinese Company May Still Pursue A123(AONE) After Bankruptcy. The Chinese auto-parts maker that
previously bailed out A123 Systems Inc., the U.S. electric-car
battery maker that filed for bankruptcy protection this week,
said it’s still interested in taking over the company. The bankruptcy filing may turn A123 into a more attractive
investment because the court proceedings would clear out legal
risks, Ni Pin, president of Wanxiang Group Corp.’s U.S.
operations, said in a phone interview yesterday. The automotive
business assets that A123 announced this week it would sell to
Johnson Controls Inc. are separate from what Wanxiang had
targeted, Ni said.
- EBay(EBAY) Forecast Misses Some Estimates Ahead of Holidays.
EBay Inc. (EBAY), the world’s largest online marketplace, forecast
fourth-quarter revenue that may miss some analysts’ estimates as sales
growth slows heading into the holiday season. “There are
uncertainties still at this point regarding consumer spending over the
holidays,” said Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Robert W. Baird &
Co., who has an outperform rating on EBay. “There are event-driven
uncertainties, such as elections, the fiscal cliff, debt issues in
Europe.”
- Moore Capital’s Coffey Bows Out as Markets Stymie Funds. Moore Capital Management LLC’s Greg Coffey is calling it quits amid markets that have proved
difficult for even the most nimble hedge-fund investors. The 41-year-old told investors yesterday in a letter that
he’s leaving the hedge-fund industry after a trading career
spanning almost two decades. He plans to spend more time with
his family and in his home country Australia.
- Obama Pursuing Leakers Sends Warning to Whistle-Blowers. Eric Holder, attorney general under
President Barack Obama, has prosecuted more government officials
for alleged leaks under the World War I-era Espionage Act than
all his predecessors combined, including law-and-order
Republicans John Mitchell, Edwin Meese and John Ashcroft. The indictments of six individuals under that spy law have
drawn criticism from those who say the president’s crackdown
chills dissent, curtails a free press and betrays Obama’s
initial promise to “usher in a new era of open government.” “There’s a problem with prosecutions that don’t
distinguish between bad people -- people who spy for other
governments, people who sell secrets for money -- and people who
are accused of having conversations and discussions,” said Abbe Lowell, attorney for Stephen J. Kim, an intelligence analyst
charged under the Act.
Wall Street Journal:
- Exchange at Debate Escalates Libya Feud. Mitt Romney's extended argument with President Barack Obama over Libya
Tuesday night sets up a potentially dramatic moment next Monday, when
the two men meet again to discuss American foreign policy in the final
presidential debate. Mr. Romney questioned in Tuesday's event in Hempstead, N.Y., the
administration's shifting and inconsistent accounts of the Sept. 11
attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which claimed the lives
of U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans.
- Iran Renews Cyberattacks on U.S. Banks. Iranian hackers renewed a campaign of cyberattacks against U.S. banks
this week, targeting Capital One Financial Corp. and BB&T Corp. and
openly defying U.S. warnings to halt, U.S. officials and others
involved in the investigation into the attacks said. The
attacks, which disrupted the banks' websites, showed the ability of the
Iranian group to sustain its cyberassault on the nation's largest banks
for a fifth week, even as it announced its plans to attack in advance.
- FBI Foils New York Fed Bomb Plot. A Bangladeshi man was arrested Wednesday and charged with trying to
detonate a 1,000-pound car bomb outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, a target he chose in a bid to disrupt the U.S. economy,
authorities said. Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis was taken
into custody in a lower Manhattan hotel room after repeatedly using a
cellphone to try to detonate material that he believed was a bomb in a
van parked outside the New York Fed, officials said.
- Gramm and Solon: Can Government Benefits Turn an Election? This election will test the relative power of private-sector aspirations versus public-sector dependence.
- Henninger: The Un-President. Barack Obama shows an unerring instinct for policy deniability.
CNBC:
- Global Economy: When China Sneezes. To this day, Chinese people of a certain age can recite a slogan from
Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward campaign that exhorted the masses to
“overtake Britain and match America” in steel production. That disastrous attempt to industrialize in the
late 1950s led to the worst man-made famine in history – one that few
outside the country knew about because China was so isolated from the
rest of the world. More
than 50 years later, China is so integrated into the global economy
that even relatively minor shifts in its domestic production or spending
can have a big impact on the other side of the world. “China
can transmit real shocks widely,” the International Monetary Fund said
in a recent report, “whether these originate domestically or elsewhere.”
- Cyprus Expects Swift Bailout as S&P Cuts Deeper to Junk. Cyprus said on Wednesday it expected talks to start with lenders on
badly needed aid next week, as ratings agency Standard & Poor's
pushed it deeper into junk territory, implying domestic political
expediency lay behind a delay in clinching a deal.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Corporate cutbacks hold back Amex(AXP) profit.
American Express Co's third-quarter profit rose only marginally and
spending growth remained muted for the second quarter in a row as
corporate executives cut spending on travel and entertainment. Expense
accounts have come under greater scrutiny as companies look to cut
costs to protect profit margins, hurting the credit card lender, which
gets more than a quarter of its U.S. billed business from corporate
customers. Amex shares dipped 1 percent in after-hours trading after it
reported a modest 1 percent rise in quarterly profit. Travel and
entertainment volumes grew 4 percent, the slowest rise this year and far
below the 12 percent growth seen a year earlier.
- Japan ministers visit shrine for war dead. Japan's land minister and postal minister visited a controversial shrine
for war dead on Thursday in a move which could further strain relations
between neighboring China and Korea, already tense over territorial
disputes. The two ministers' pilgrimage to the
Yasukuni Shrine, seen by many in the region as a symbol of Japan's
war-time militarism, came a day after Japan's main opposition party
leader and possible next prime minister, Shinzo Abe, visited there.
- Solyndra presses for bankruptcy plan OK over US objection. Failed solar panel maker
Solyndra pressed a federal judge on Wednesday to approve its
plan to end its politically charged bankruptcy over objections
by the U.S. government, which argued the plan was being used by
investors to dodge taxes. Critics say government involvement in the company has cost
taxpayers twice: for a $528 million government loan, and for tax
breaks potentially worth $340 million that will go to venture
capitalists.
- Steel Dynamics'(STLD) profit plunges. Steel producer and metals recycler Steel
Dynamics Inc's third-quarter profit plunged 77 percent
as global economic uncertainty cut into steel shipments. Profit fell more than 50 percent for the third straight
quarter. Steel prices have been depressed
in recent months due to the lack of a strong recovery in steel demand
in China -- the world's largest producer and consumer of steel -- along
with a persistently oversupplied market. The benchmark 62-percent grade iron ore index
fell 22 percent in the June to September period. Although prices
have recovered from a three-year low of below $87 last month,
they are still 25 percent below this year's high of $149.40. "We believe volumes could continue to be challenged in the
fourth quarter, as fluctuations in immediate customer needs and
hesitancy for customers to carry inventory persists," Chief
Executive Mark Millett said in statement. Global demand for steel will slow next year because of
weaker consumption growth in China and uncertainties from the
European debt crisis, according to the World Steel Association.
- Greece faces anti-austerity shutdown as EU meets. Greek workers will walk off the
job for the second time in three weeks on Thursday, hoping to
show EU leaders meeting in Brussels that a new wave of wage and
pension cuts will only worsen the plight of a people worn down
by five years of recession. Mired in its worst downturn since World War Two, Greece is
preparing 11.5 billion euros of cuts to satisfy the "troika" of
the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, and
secure the next instalment of its 130-billion-euro bailout. "Just once, the government ought to reject the troika's
absurd demands," said Yannis Panagopoulos, head of the GSEE
private sector union, one of two major unions that represent
about 2 million people, or half of Greece's workforce. "Agreeing to catastrophic measures means driving society to
despair and the consequences as well as the protests will then
be indefinite," he said.
Asahi:
- Toyota
to Maintain Lower Production in China. The company will maintain lower
production in China for the rest of this year due to deterioration in
Japan-China relations, citing plans presented to business partners, including parts makers. The company likely to have lowered produciton by 60% at its Guangzhou plant in China in Oct.
Nikkei:
- Japanese TV Sales in China Fall During Holiday. Sales at eight makers fell combined 40% from year-earlier
during China's National Day holiday, citing All View Consulting. Sharp
TV sales fell 50%, Sony 40%, citing All View.Market share fell to 18% vs. year-earlier 30%. Chinese maker share rose to 67% from 59%.
China Securities Journal:
- Shanghai
to Expand Checks on Home Purchase Limit. Shanghai will continue to
increase checks on the implementation of home purchase limits, citing Liu Haisheng, director of the city's housing support and building administration bureau. Shanghai will curb speculative housing demand, the report cites Liu as saying.
WantChinaTimes:
- China's power consumption slows further. China's power consumption growth slowed further in September as
factory activity and industrial output showed weaker increases amid the
economic downturn. The National Energy Administration (NEA) said Wednesday that the
China's total electricity consumption grew only 2.9% from a year earlier
to 405.1 billion kilowatt hours. The growth was 0.7 of a percentage point lower than August and 9.3% lower than the September 2011 figure, according to NEA data.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -8.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 95.5 -3.75 basis points.
- FTSE-100 futures +.14%.
- S&P 500 futures unch.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (PPG)/2.20
- (BSX)/.11
- (CY)/.19
- (LH)/1.74
- (LUV)/.12
- (BBT)/.72
- (DO)/1.02
- (FITB)/.39
- (KEY)/.21
- (PM)/1.39
- (TRV)/1.60
- (BAX)/1.14
- (MS)/.25
- (VZ)/.64
- (ADS)/2.23
- (UNP)/2.18
- (RHI)/.38
- (CMG)/2.29
- (COF)/1.68
- (SNDK)/.34
- (MSFT)/.56
- (GOOG)/10.65
- (RVBD)/.25
- (GPC)/1.12
- (NUE)/.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 365K versus 339K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3275K versus 3273K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Philly Fed for October is estimated to rise to 1.0 versus -1.9 in September.
- Leading Indicators for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in August.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The EU Leaders Summit, Greek Parliament vote on austerity measures, Greek union strike, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for October, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- VIX 15.03 -1.25%
- ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -7.09%
- Total Put/Call .78 -4.88%
- NYSE Arms .62 -22.05%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.73 bps -2.70%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 153.24 bps -9.89%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.76 bps -16.27%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 209.38 bps -1.26%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 21.5 -1.75 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% +2 basis points
- Yield Curve 151.0 +6 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $115.40/Metric Tonne +2.49%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.50 +3.1 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +76 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my Medical/Tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Spain’s Aid From EU Can Be Short of Full Bailout, Katainen Says. Finnish
Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen said any financial assistance for Spain
would stop short of a full bailout, as French President Francois
Hollande backed the country’s demand for clarity over European aid.
European Union leaders must show solidarity should Spain request funds,
though assistance could take the form of a “precautionary” program,
Katainen said today at a conference in Bucharest. Hollande underscored a divide with Germany as
government chiefs prepared to gather for a summit in Brussels
tomorrow, saying that measures taken by Spain in return for any
help should be laid out in detail.
- Singapore September Exports Unexpectedly Decline on Electronics. Singapore’s exports unexpectedly
declined for a second month in September as manufacturers sold
fewer electronics and pharmaceuticals to customers abroad. Non-oil domestic exports slid 3.4 percent from a year
earlier, after a revised 10.7 percent drop in August, the trade
promotion agency said in a statement today. The median of 16
estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.2 percent gain. Singapore’s central bank held off from easing monetary
policy last week even as the gross domestic product contracted
in the third quarter, and the Trade Ministry said growth will be
weighed down for the rest of the year by a “subdued” world
economy. The International Monetary Fund this month cut its
projections for global expansion this year and next, saying it
sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown. “Continued weakness in leading indicators like the SEMI
book-to-bill ratio and global PMIs suggested continued
volatility in exports and manufacturing can be expected ahead,”
Leslie Tang, an economist at OSK-DMG in Singapore, said before
the report, referring to semiconductor orders and shipments and
purchasing managers indexes. Singapore’s electronics shipments by companies such as
Venture Corp. fell 16.4 percent in September from a year earlier,
after slipping 11 percent the previous month.
- Russian Investment Unexpectedly Fell First Time in 18 Months. Russian
investment unexpectedly slid last month for the first time since March
2011 as uncertainty over the economy prompted businesses to reduce
spending. Fixed-capital investment fell 1.3 percent in September compared with a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said in an e-mailed statement today. Economists predicted an increase of 2.1 percent, according to the median of 15 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.
- Japan Stimulus Restricted as Diet Standoff Prevents Extra Budget. Japan’s government plans to tap
discretionary budget funds to counter an economic slowdown as a
legislative stalemate threatens to leave the Noda administration
without cash as soon as next month.
- Mack: I'm Disappointed with Obama's Divisive Nature. (video)
- CMBS Faces Risk of ‘Disruptive Shocks’ Regulators Told. Commercial mortgage-backed
securities have more risk than last year as landlords need to
repay maturing debt and vacancies remain elevated, according to
an analysis prepared for insurance regulators. “Downside risk for CMBS relative to last year’s
assumptions has clearly increased,” according to a report for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and posted
on the group’s website. The market is “proving itself subject
to highly disruptive shocks” and has less time to deal with the
coming wave of loan maturities, consultants and NAIC staff said
in the report.
- ThinkEquity Closing Stock-Trading Unit as Volumes Decline. ThinkEquity LLC is closing its
stock-trading business today amid a market slump and preparing
to transfer its remaining investment-banking unit to another
firm, Chief Executive Officer Greg Wright said. ThinkEquity, which employs a total of about 100 people, is
determining how many jobs will be cut, he said in a telephone
interview. Wright said another firm, which he declined to
identify, has offered to take over San Francisco-based
ThinkEquity’s investment-banking business and hire some workers.
Details may be announced as soon as tomorrow, he said.
- Home Starts Rise to Highest In Four Years. Beginning home construction jumped last month to an 872,000 annual rate,
the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg
survey of economists, Commerce Department figures showed today in
Washington.
Wall Street Journal:
- Debate Hotspots: Energy, Benghazi, Taxes.
- Militant Suspected in Attack in Libya Remains At Large. The founder of Libya's Islamist militia Ansar al-Sharia was at the
U.S. consulate compound during the deadly attack here, Libyan officials
say, but he remains free a week after those allegations were disclosed
to Libyan political leaders and U.S. investigators. Ahmed Abu
Khattalah—who current Libyan officials and former Islamic militants
describe as propagating an al Qaeda-style ideology—was seen during the
Sept. 11 attack at the diplomatic mission where two of the four
Americans died, said two senior Libyan security officials familiar with
the investigation.
- Violent Crimes Rose by 18% Last Year. The number of violent crimes rose by 18% in the U.S. last year while
property crimes went up by 11%, the government reported Wednesday. It was the first year-to-year increase for violent crime since 1993,
marking the end of a long string of declines.
- Amazon(AMZN) Sets Sites on Kids.
- A President Without a Plan. A more spirited Obama, but he still has no agenda for the next four years.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- Who's Moving In? Adult Kids, Aging Parents. Almost a third of homeowners expect their grown
children or aging parents to eventually move in with them, according to
a survey by one of the nation's largest home builders. About
one in seven say they already have a "boomerang kid" — an adult child
who moves back home — or elderly parent living under their roof.
- Apartment Bubble Inflating Fast.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
- Europe banking supervisor plan ‘illegal’. A
plan to create a single eurozone banking supervisor is illegal,
according to a secret legal opinion for EU finance ministers that deals a
further blow to a reform deemed vital to solving the bloc’s debt
crisis. A paper from the EU Council’s top legal adviser, obtained by the
Financial Times, argues the plan goes “beyond the powers” permitted
under law to change governance rules at the European Central Bank.
HIB Bulletin:
- German
Chancellor Angela Merkel aims to thwart expansion of the EU's 2014-2020
budget that's now being forged by leaders of the 27-state trade bloc,
citing German negotiator Michael Link, a deputy foreign minister.
Welt:
- Schulz Rejects EU Intervention in National Budgets. No EU minister should be able to modify the budget of a member country, citing European Parliament President Martin Schulz. Schulz rejects demand from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
Vanguardia:
- Germany is pressuring Italy to request European aid alongside Spain so that the government of Prime Minister Mario Monti doesn't reap the benefit of lower borrowing costs without being tied to tougher economic reforms, citing European and Spanish officials. Italy is resisting the proposal.
Estado de S. Paulo:
- Brazil Auto Sales Fall 11% Through Mid-Oct from Mid-Sept. Sales totaled 135,700 units.
ShanghaiDaily.com:
- Shanghai to Continue Home Curbs. SHANGHAI will continue to strictly enforce its property curbs to fight
speculation even as it proceeds with its affordable housing program for low to
mid-income households, a senior government official said yesterday. The
measures, including home buying curbs and differentiated mortgage policies, will
remain, Liu Haisheng, director of the Shanghai Housing Support and Building
Administration Bureau, told a municipal conference held yesterday."In
general, tightening measures aimed at curbing speculative demand have proved
effective so far, and we will spare no effort to retain them," Liu said.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformer:
- 1) Education -11.33% 2) Computer Services -4.70% 3) Disk Drives -1.64%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
- FTNT, FIRE, ASML, LFC, MLNX, IBM, VALE, BLOX, APOL, CHKP, HCP, ISRG, ABT, PNC, AVG, STRA, IBM, DGX, ALGN, LNN, ORLY, STJ, SWK, CMA, RECN, TXT, DOV, INTC, DV, STJ and DG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) MRO 2) APOL 3) CSX 4) CHKP 5) IBM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) ACN 2) DBD 3) APOL 4) IP 5) PNC
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders +3.61% 2) Biotech +1.28% 3) Airlines +1.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- MANH, CYMI, HWD, BZH, CREE, MTB, CNC, DF, URI, KBH, BK and ORI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) OSG 2) USG 3) ACAS 4) DF 5) KR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CHRW 2) NOC 3) JNJ 4) KO 5) BK
Charts: