Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Earnings Concerns, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.77 +2.78%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.83 -.97%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.21 +.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.48 +1.32%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -25.0%

• Total Put/Call .81 -1.22%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +13.42% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.15 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.03 +1.08%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 55.0 -1.79%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 116.52 +1.32%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 339.17 +.30%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 22.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -2.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 232.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $122.60/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.0 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -160 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Brazil Real Heads for Fourth Monthly Decline as Deficit Widens. Brazil’s real was headed for a fourth straight monthly decline as part of a broad drop in emerging-market currencies after the government’s budget deficit widened in December to almost the widest since 2009. The currency depreciated 2 percent to 2.4092 per U.S. dollar in January as of 3:09 p.m. in Sao Paulo and was little changed for the day. Swap rates on contracts maturing in January 2015 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 11.66 percent, extending their increase this month to 108 basis points, the most since the global financial crisis in 2008. 

• Argentine Bonds Plunge Most in Emerging Markets on Outflows. Argentine dollar bonds tumbled the most in emerging markets on concern government measures from devaluation to rate increases aren’t enough to improve the country’s deteriorating debt payment capacity. Argentine government dollar bonds due 2015 fell 3.88 cents on the dollar to 85.75 cents, driving yields up to 19.12 percent, the highest since June 2012. The extra yield investors demand to own Argentine bonds over U.S. Treasuries widened 75 basis points to 1,142 basis points, while the average spread on emerging-market bonds rose 11 basis points at 10:28 a.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBIG index. 

• Asian Currencies Drop in Week on China Slowdown Signs, Fed Taper. Asian currencies declined for a third week, led by the Thai baht and Malaysia’s ringgit, amid concern a slowdown in China and U.S. stimulus cuts will deepen the selloff in emerging markets. The Bloomberg JPMorgan-Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) fell 0.1 percent this week as a report signaled China’s manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months. The Federal Reserve said Jan. 29 it will pare its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $65 billion from February, following a similar reduction in January. The baht had its worst week in almost a month after global funds pulled money from the nation’s assets amid concern a Feb. 2 election will trigger more violence.

• European Banks Face 5.5% Capital Hurdle in EBA Stress Test. The largest banks in Europe will have to show their capital won’t dip below 5.5 percent of their assets in an economic crisis, the European Union’s top banking regulator said. The exercise, which will examine a sample of 124 banks that cover more than half of each EU member state’s banking industry, is scheduled to begin around the end of May, the European Banking Authority said in a statement today. Results will be published at the end of October.

• European Stocks Drop, Posting Their Worst January in Four Years. European stocks fell, posting their worst start to the year since 2010, as companies from Electrolux AB to Vedanta Resources Plc dropped after reporting results. Electrolux slid the most since August 2011 after earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Vedanta Resources Plc lost 3.6 percent after saying copper output in Zambia, Australia and India declined. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA jumped 7.9 percent after reporting growth in fashion and leather-goods sales rebounded in the fourth quarter. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 322.52 at the close of trading, paring earlier losses of as much as 1.7 percent. 

• WTI Oil Falls From 2014 High on Emerging Economies. WTI for March delivery fell 57 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $97.66 a barrel at 2:19 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI climbed 0.9 percent to $98.23 yesterday, the highest settlement since Dec. 31. The volume of all contracts traded was 13 percent above the 100-day average. Futures are up 1.2 percent this week and down 0.8 percent this month. 

• Copper Caps Longest Losing Streak Since 1998 on China Concern. Copper for delivery in three months lost 0.4 percent to settle at $7,065 a ton ($3.20 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. This month’s decline was the biggest since June.

• House Republicans’ Economic Agenda Targets Middle Class. U.S. House Republican leaders are preparing an economic agenda that includes energy proposals aimed at lowering utility bills and countering President Barack Obama’s focus on income inequality, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News. 

CNBC:

• IMF calls for ‘urgent action’ amid EM crisis. (video) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has responded to the ongoing volatility in emerging markets by stressing the need for coherent macroeconomic policies and urgent policy action in some countries. Emerging markets have been hit over the past week amid concerns that growth in the region will slow as the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, draining global liquidity. A number of emerging market currencies have seen major falls against the dollar, with some central banks forced to raise rates and intervene in the markets to limit the swings.

• 4 signs of a potential ETF apocalypse now.

• A hard landing in China: The risks in one graphic.

• Chinese wealthy pull back on luxury spending. (video)

• Cashin: We're getting 'awfully close' to end of bull market.

ZeroHedge: 

• Real Disposable Income Plummets Most In 40 Years. (graph)

• Alternative Asset Managers Fueling Credit Bubble, US Regulator Warns.

• Chicago PMI 59.6 Beats Despite Decline: Employment Drops Most Since April. (graph)

• Greece Is Back: Germany, France, Creditors Hold Secret Meeting Due To Greek Bailout "Mounting Concerns".

• Spain's Banco Popular Bad Loans Surge 20% QoQ (Most Ever) To Record High. (graph)

• How To Trade The Emerging Market Meltdown.

• Third Banker, Former Fed Member, "Found Dead" Inside A Week.

• A Not So Subtle Hint That Argentina May Be Un-Fixed. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• America's Shopping Malls Are Dying A Slow, Ugly Death. 

• Jon Stewart Laughs At Nancy Pelosi When She Says She Doesn't Know Why The Obamacare Website Failed.

Futures Magazine:

• Emerging markets feel screws beginning to tighten. Thanks to the Fed's tapering, a wider public is becoming aware of currency instability in diverse economies, from Turkey to Argentina, and India to Indonesia.

Reuters: 

• Emerging-market drop hasn't hurt U.S. prospects -Fed's Williams. The recent drop in emerging markets and U.S. stocks has not hurt the growing momentum of the U.S. economy or its labor market, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday, adding the Fed should not focus too much on "short-term developments." 

• MasterCard(MA) 2014 revenue to come in at low end of forecast. MasterCard Inc posted a lower-than-expected quarterly profit and said its net revenue for the year would come in at the low end of its three-year forecast range as customers migrate to Visa Inc as part of a previously announced deal. 

• Fed's George warns of risks from super-easy monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's decision to ratchet down its massive bond-buying program was a "modest but positive step," a top Fed official said on Friday, but continued super-easy monetary policies pose risks both at home and abroad. 

• Emerging market stock funds worldwide post $6.4 bln outflow -BofA.

Financial Times:

• Economic danger lurks in China’s shadow banks. Of all the economic dangers to flare up over the past week, the most unsettling was at first glance also the most esoteric: the near default of a high-yield loan product held by a few hundred small-time Chinese investors. First, the direct risks. Credit Equals Gold No. 1 is just one of a wave of Chinese shadow banking products that will fail to live up to their outlandishly confident names when they mature this year. The drama over repayment will be played out again and again.

Telegraph:

• Argentina is no danger to the world - but the eurozone is. Emerging markets are making headlines as they jack up interest rates to defend their currencies, but it is the eurozone that is still in a really bad way.

Taipei Times:

• China reportedly mulling S China Sea defense zone. ‘ASAHI’ REPORT:The Japanese newspaper said the Chinese air force drafted proposals for the zone, and submitted them to senior officials in May last year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.82%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banking -1.87% 2) Networking -1.60% 3) Energy -1.52%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MCC, FUEL, HGR, MAT, ITMN, SLCA, ABAX, AMZN, VR, PPO, NSR, TXTR, GDOT, N, NATI, LBTYK, BSMX, MA, HAS, ZIV, ADT, GLOG, NEM, PCCC, YPF, WETF, CVX, SMCI, CNQR, MCC, OSTK, HAS, LEA and CTCT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CNX 2) PBI 3) EXC 4) AVP 5) LEA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEM 2) MS 3) MAT 4) SYMC 5) XOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.23%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.83% 2) Restaurants +.89% 3) REITs +.61%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RXN, ARAY, ENTA, CPHD, MTW, PFPT, UIS, JDSU, SZYM, CSC, BYD, CMG, TUES and WAIR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARAY 2) TIVO 3) ITMN 4) ZNGA 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TSN 2) WMT 3) GOOG 4) CVX 5) RTN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Abenomics at Risk as Workers Struggle to Keep Up With Inflation. For his economic strategy to work, the Prime Minister says earnings at companies like Toyota, where profit is projected to double to a record 1.86 trillion yen ($18.2 billion) this year, must lead to higher pay. Employees like Matsui have yet to see the benefits -- in the 11 months through November, pay for the average Japanese worker rose just 0.2 percent; it’s fallen 15 percent in the past decade and a half. Japan’s unions will begin contract negotiations next month in labor’s biggest bid so far to share in the benefits of Abenomics. “This is a litmus test for whether Abenomics works or falls apart,” said Martin Schulz, an economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. “How can you get growth to go up without getting money into people’s pockets?”  

• Emerging Market Rout May Signal ‘Sudden Stop’: Cutting Research. Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Ukraine are the emerging markets most at risk of a “sudden stop,” in the view of Morgan Stanley. That’s defined as a halt or even a reversal in capital flows into a country, slashing access to international financial markets for an extended period and weakening the economy. The term is often linked to 1995 work by Rudi Dornbusch, the late international economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. Mexico, Indonesia, India and Thailand are also in some jeopardy of such a phenomenon as investors turn sour on emerging markets, London-based economists Manoj Pradhan and Patryk Drozdzik said in two reports to clients over the past week. They wrote as central banks in India, Turkey and South Africa raised interest rates to shoreup confidence in their currencies.

• Emerging-Market Shocks Pressure Dormant Volatility: Currencies. Volatility in foreign exchange markets, after falling to some of the lowest levels since before the financial crisis, has nowhere to go but up as emerging economies falter, say the world's biggest dealers. "The market hasn't accepted some of the risk events that are on the horizon," Ian Stannard, the head of Europe currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London, said in a Jan. 27 phone interview. "Foreign-exchange volatility is still at relatively low levels so there's scope for it to move higher. China still poses the biggest spillover risk from emerging markets."  

• China Making Air Force, Navy Upgrades, U.S. Officials Say. China’s air force is fielding new precision-guided cruise missiles, long-range bombers and drones as its Navy expands its long-range punch, according to U.S. military intelligence officials. “While we would not characterize the modernization as accelerated,” it’s “progressing at a steady pace” and is significant, Lee Fuell, a director at the Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center, said in a presentation released today. 

• Rubber Futures in Tokyo Advance, Paring Monthly Loss. Rubber in Tokyo advanced, paring the biggest monthly decline since May 2012, as increased spending by U.S. consumers raised optimism that demand for the commodity used in tires may increase. The contract for delivery in July rose as much as 1.7 percent to 231.8 yen a kilogram ($2,255 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, before trading at 230.6 yen at 11:24 a.m. local time. Futures tumbled 16 percent this month and fell into a bear market amid swelling inventories in China, the biggest consumer. Rubber fell 9.3 percent last year.

• Ukraine Warring Factions Trade Barbs With President Sick. Ukraine’s opposition accused Viktor Yanukovych of foul play as the president placed himself on sick leave and said his rivals are escalating the nation’s two-month political crisis. The two sides are in dispute over steps meant to reduce tension in the wake of deadly anti-government clashes last week. While Yanukovych’s cabinet fell with the Jan. 28 resignation of former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the opposition rejected an amnesty law for protesters pushed through yesterday and said he may use illness to avoid canceling anti-protest laws.

• Puerto Rico Will Be Cut to Junk Within 30 Days, UBS Says. Puerto Rico’s general-obligation bonds are poised to be cut to junk within the next month, according to UBS AG. “Given the myriad obstacles facing Puerto Rico, we believe that at least one rating agency will take such an action within the next 30 days,” analysts Thomas McLoughlin and Kristin Stephens at UBS Wealth Management in New York wrote in a report dated yesterday. 

• ECB Seeking to Unmask Weak Banks Wants Risky Loan Details. The European Central Bank asked Europe’s biggest lenders to disclose loans on their balance sheets that are at risk of default as part of its review of the health of the region’s financial system. Banks also had to provide figures on loans they have restructured for clients, a document distributed to 128 banks taking part in an asset quality review and obtained by Bloomberg showed. The document, in the form of an excel spreadsheet, asked banks to note how many of their loans classified as “performing” have already been restructured, and how many loans that don’t yet meet the standard definition of non-performing -- 90 days past due -- are “unlikely to pay.”

• Bonds Prove Bears Wrong in Best Start Since 2008 as Stocks Tank. Bonds are up, stocks are down and it’s snowing in Atlanta. The start of the year in financial markets has gone as almost no one expected, with fixed-income assets worldwide posting their biggest January returns since 2008 and equity prices falling the most since 2010. Gold, given up for dead in 2013 as prices tumbled 28 percent, is rallying.

• Keystone Report Said Likely to Disappoint Foes on Climate. The U.S. State Department is preparing a report that will probably disappoint environmentalists and opponents of the Keystone pipeline, according to people who have been briefed on the draft of the document.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Selloff's Spread to Europe Is Sign of Broad Fear. Until This Week, European Emerging Markets Had Largely Dodged Weakness That Hit Peers Elsewhere. Until this week, European emerging markets had largely dodged the vicious selloff that has swept through their peers elsewhere. Now, they are cracking. The Hungarian forint took a heavy blow early Thursday, dropping as much as 1% against the dollar. The Polish zloty and the Czech koruna also stumbled. The currencies clawed back some ground late in the day, but analysts cited Thursday's gyrations as a sign that the market's fear of investments seen as risky is broad. Whether bouts of weakness in such countries persist will be a barometer of wider emerging-market strains.

Fox News: 

• House GOP leaders back limited path to legal status for illegal immigrants. House Republican leaders on Thursday endorsed a limited path to legal status for some illegal immigrants, in a move Democrats said could open the door to a deal on comprehensive immigration legislation. The position was included in a document released by party leaders during their annual retreat in Maryland. The "standards for immigration reform" document ruled out a special path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

CNBC:

• Blankfein’s pay to rise 10% to $23 million for 2013. Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs, may earn as much as $23 million in 2013 – a 10 percent increase on the previous year – despite the bank's struggle to overcome a slump in fixed income trading. 

• Google(GOOG) earnings: adjusted EPS $12.01 on $16.86 bln revenue. (video) Google reported earnings that missed Wall Street expectations on Thursday, though core revenue in its Internet business rose 22 percent.

• Will Argentina’s woes hit this country? (video) Argentina's latest monetary ailment may prove contagious for some of its Latin American neighbors, with Brazil likely to be the first to catch the fever. "What has been happening in Argentina will have a negative impact on the Brazilian economy," Tony Volpon, a strategist for Latin America at Nomura, told CNBC, citing long-standing trade ties. "For example, about 70-80 percent of Brazilian car exports actually go to Argentina. So they are vulnerable."

Zero Hedge: 

• Foreign Investment In France Crashes 77% In 2013 (Most On Record) To 26 Year Lows. (graph)

• Bill Miller Does It Again: JCPenney Drops Over 25% Since "Undervalued" Call (To Fresh 33-Year Low).

• Janet Yellen's Impossible Task. (graph)

• Who Are The Biggest Losers From The EM Crisis. 

• CME Hikes Nat Gas Margins By 26%, Second Time In One Week.

• 32 Alarming Facts Missing From Obama's State Of The Union Address.

• "Fed Has Fingers & Thumbs On The Scales Of Finance," Grant Tells Santelli And It "Will End Badly".

Business Insider: 

• Microsoft(MSFT) To Name Satya Nadella As CEO, May Remove Bill Gates As Chairman [Report].

• Libya Sues Goldman Over Massive $1 Billion Trading Loss.

• Yahoo(YHOO) Detected A Major Email Hack And Is Making Users Reset Their Passwords.

Quartz: 

• Will the emerging market rout get even worse? Watch corporate bonds. Global investors have suddenly remembered that emerging markets have a rich, recent history of florid financial crises. The cracks are starting to emerge everywhere: wobbly “wealth management products” in China, the Turkish lira’s tumble, the selloff in Brazilian bond markets and last summer’s mini-rupee crisis.

Reuters: 

• Amazon(AMZN) warns of possible loss, mulls Prime fee-hike. Amazon.com Inc missed Wall Street's estimates for the crucial holiday period and cautioned investors about a possible operating loss this quarter as shipping costs climb, pushing its shares down more than 5 percent. 

• U.S.-based emerging markets stock funds post $2.6 bln outflow - Lipper.

Telegraph:

• Emerging market storm spreads to Russia as rouble wobbles. Russian central bank vowed “unlimited” intervention to defend the rouble after it fell to a record low against a basket of currencies.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.25 +1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.0 -.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CVX)/2.58

• (D)/.88

• (LEA)/1.59

• (LM)/.95

• (LYB)/1.40

• (MA)/.60

• (MAT)/1.20

• (MJN)/.76

• (PCAR)/.93

• (SPG)/2.43

• (TYC)/.45

• (TSN)/.63

• (WY)/.28

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in 3Q.

• Personal Income for December is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in November.

• Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in November.

• PCE Core for December is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in November.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for January is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus a reading of 59.1 in December.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for January is estimated to rise to 81.0 versus a prior estimate of 80.4.

Upcoming Splits

• (TD) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI and the Eurozone Unemployment rate could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.24 -6.40%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.19 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 -2.32%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.54 -2.70%

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +32.32%

• Total Put/Call .79 -15.96%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +21.10% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.07 -1.82%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.94 -2.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 56.0 +4.38%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 115.20 -.45%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 337.49 +.17%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.50 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 2.25 +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 235.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $122.60/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.10 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.2 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +198 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long