Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Steel +.57% 2) Medical Equipment +.43% 3) Tobacco +.15%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- OHRP, DATA, TVIX, MYGN, OMER, ORMP, LVLT, OMCL and CVD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) DATA 2) BWLD 3) HUM 4) BEAM 5) FNSR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) GOOG 2) RL 3) LUV 4) TSLA 5) MRK
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China Savers’ Penchant for Property Magnifies Bust Danger. Chinese households’ concentration of wealth in real estate is
magnifying the danger to the world’s second-largest economy of any
property bust, as the nation grapples with the consequences of its
record credit surge. Some 66.1 percent of family assets were in
housing in 2013, a national survey of about 28,000 households shows.
Mortgage debt as a share of disposable income rose to 30 percent from 18
percent in 2008, according to estimates by Nicholas Lardy at the
Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. The
buildup raises the stakes for any slide in property prices amid China’s
efforts to head off defaults by local governments and developers that
propelled a run-up in borrowing that now amounts to more than double the
size of the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. A hit to household wealth could impair consumer spending, rebuffing policy maker efforts to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand.
- Pimco’s Bill Gross Says He Avoids China ‘Mystery Meat'.
Bill Gross, who oversees the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific
Investment Management Co., said the pace of economic growth in China is
among the biggest questions in developing nations and the largest risks
for markets. “I call China the mystery meat of emerging-market
countries,” Gross said yesterday during an interview on Bloomberg
Television’s “Market Makers” with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle.
“Nobody knows what’s there and there’s a little bit of bologna, so
we’re just going to have to wonder going forward through this year as to
the potential problems in
China and other emerging markets.”
- Deadly New Bird Flu Strain Spawned by Virus Behind H5N1. The new bird flu that’s infected two
people in China, killing one, was spawned by the same pathogen that produced two other deadly flu strains, a study found.
The new H10N8 strain, which hasn’t previously been reported in humans,
contains six out of eight genes from the H9N2 virus that also provided
the genetic foundation for the H5N1 virus that’s killed 386 people since
2003, and the H7N9 strain that led to at least 70 fatalities, Chinese
researchers wrote in The Lancet medical journal today.
- Japan Real Wages Fall to Global Recession Low in Spending Risk. Japan’s base wages adjusted for
inflation last year matched a record low in 2009 when the world
was gripped by recession, posing a risk to consumer spending as
the nation girds for a higher sales tax.
Pay excluding bonuses and overtime payments dropped to 98.9
in 2013 on a labor ministry index that takes price changes into
account, equaling the level four years earlier. The gauge is
based at 100 in 2010 in data dating back to at least 2002.
- Chinese Shares Decline to Six-Month Low in Hong Kong.
The Hang Seng China (HSCEI) Enterprises Index dropped to a six-month
low as financial companies and energy producers retreated. Ping An
Insurance Group Co. slid 1.4 percent, while Huaneng Power International
Inc. slumped 2.9 percent. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the Hong Kong
developer controlled by billionaire Li Ka-shing, fell 1.5 percent,
heading for its lowest close since September. Anhui Conch Cement Co.
gained 2.1 percent after
Credit Suisse Group AG named the stock as one of its top picks.
The Hang Seng China gauge of mainland companies, known as
the H-share index, lost 0.3 percent to 9,482.01 at the midday
break in Hong Kong, heading for its lowest close since Aug. 7.
- Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Rebound as Earnings Boost Japan.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from
its biggest slump since June, after U.S. shares rebounded and Japanese
companies posted earnings that cheered investors. Toyota Motor Corp.,
the world’s largest carmaker, jumped 6.2 percent in Tokyo after
forecasting a record profit. Panasonic Corp. surged 21 percent, heading
for its largest gain in almost 40 years of trading, after Japan’s
biggest consumer-electronics maker posted third-quarter profit that beat
analyst estimates. Hyundai Development Co-Engineering &
Construction
gained 5.7 percent in Seoul after the homebuilder’s rating was
raised at KTB Securities Co.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent to 131.25
as of 11:03 a.m. in Tokyo, after plunging the most since June 20
yesterday.
- Rubber in Tokyo Trades Near 17-Month Low Amid China Holidays.
Rubber in Tokyo traded near the lowest level in 17 months as demand
from biggest-user China remains subdued during holidays, while output in
major producing nations is poised to decline. The contract for delivery
in July rose and fell by at least 1.2 percent before trading at 220.6
yen a kilogram ($2,177 a metric ton) by 11:48 a.m. local time on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Futures earlier touched 217.8 yen, the
lowest intraday level for a most-active contract since Sept. 5, 2012.
The commodity entered a bear market last week and has lost 20
percent this year.
- Fed Presidents Say Stock Decline Unlikely to Derail QE Taper. Two Federal Reserve district bank
presidents signaled a decline in global stock markets probably
won’t deter the Fed from further trimming bond buying that has
pushed up central bank assets to $4.1 trillion. “The hurdle ought to
remain pretty high for pausing in tapering,” Richmond Fed President
Jeffrey Lacker said after a speech today in Winchester, Virginia.
Chicago’s Charles Evans said in Detroit that policy makers probably face
“a high hurdle to deviate” from $10 billion cuts in monthly bond buying
at
each of their next several meetings.
Wall Street Journal:
- Assault on California Power Station Raises Alarm on Potential for Terrorism. April Sniper Attack Knocked Out Substation, Raises Concern for Country's Power Grid.
The attack began just before 1 a.m. on April
16 last year, when someone slipped into an underground vault not far
from a busy freeway and cut telephone cables. Within
half an hour, snipers opened fire on a nearby electrical substation.
Shooting for 19 minutes, they surgically knocked out 17 giant
transformers that funnel power to Silicon Valley. A minute before a
police car arrived, the shooters disappeared into the night. To
avoid a blackout, electric-grid officials rerouted power around the
site and asked power plants in Silicon Valley to produce more
electricity. But it took utility workers 27 days to make repairs and bring the substation back to life. Nobody
has been arrested or charged in the attack at PG&E Corp.'s
Metcalf transmission substation. It is an incident of which few
Americans are aware. But one former federal regulator is calling it a
terrorist act that, if it were widely replicated across the country,
could take down the U.S. electric grid and black out much of the
country.
- Steel Scrapyards in U.S. Feel Effects of Turkey's Tarnished Economy.
The reach of Turkey's economic turmoil stretches to a sprawling
scrapyard in this blue-collar town and to veteran metals trader
Ken Puckett. Turkey is the world's largest
consumer of scrap steel, meaning strong demand from the country is
essential to keeping prices firm for the $20 billion U.S. industry. But
with the Turkish economy in crisis, demand is drying up. The country's
imports of scrap from the U.S., Turkey's top supplier, fell 18% to 4.9
million tons in the first 11 months of last year. That means that scrap
that had been destined to be used in Turkish steel mills remains in the
U.S. looking for buyers.
- The Jobless Care Act. Congress's budget office says ObamaCare will increase unemployment.
There are 7.8 million Americans working part-time who want full-time
work, including a fry cook whose restaurant cut his hours to avoid
Affordable Care Act mandates and confronted President Obama in an online
Google Q&A last week: "We can't survive. It's not a living."
Mr. Obama changed the subject to raising the minimum wage. But he can't dodge reality forever as the evidence piles up that ObamaCare is harming the labor market.
Fox News:
- S&P Cuts Puerto Rico Debt to Junk. Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday cut Puerto Rico’s credit rating to
junk status, citing the Caribbean island’s inability to borrow money to
cover looming budget deficits. All of Puerto Rico’s general obligation debt was cut one level to
BB+, the high level of junk status debt. S&P said all of its ratings
on Puerto Rico remain on watch for additional downgrades.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Forbes:
The Federalist:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.0 -6.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 116.75 -2.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for January is estimated to fall to 185K versus 238K in December.
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for January is estimated to rise to 53.7 versus 53.0 in December.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+2,270,000 barrels versus a +6,421,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +920,000 barrels versus a
-819,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to fall by -2,120,000 barrels versus a -4,584,000 barrel
decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to
fall by -.29% versus a +1.7% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Eurozone Services PMI,
Australian Trade Balance report, weekly MBA mortgage applications
report and the Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference could also impact
trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixsed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 18.22 -12.22%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.21 +.53%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.87 -4.27%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.33 -2.99%
- ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 +50.0%
- Total Put/Call 1.05 +31.25%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.71 -2.45%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.20 -2.25%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 55.68 +1.24%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 115.71 -3.06%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 332.06 -4.12%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 unch.
- TED Spread 18.50 -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +3.0 basis points
- Yield Curve 231.0 +3.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $122.60/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.10 -1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -2.0 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +329 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Brazil December Industrial Output Drops Below Every Estimate.
Brazil’s industrial production in December fell by the most in five
years, surprising analysts, as the central bank continues to boost
interest rates in the world’s second-biggest emerging market. Swap rates
fell. Industrial output dropped 3.5 percent from the previous month
after declining a revised 0.3 percent in November, the national
statistics agency said today in Rio de Janeiro. That was the biggest
fall since December 2008, and steeper than predicted by all 37
economists surveyed by Bloomberg, whose median estimate was for a 1.7
percent decline.
- Pimco Sees Delay in Emerging Markets Recovery on Interest Rates. A recovery in emerging-market growth
will be pushed back amid rising interest rates and declines in developing-nations currencies, according to Pacific Investment
Management Co. “There is a real possibility that this vicious cycle of
rate adjustments in EM coupled with currency weakness will
further postpone EM growth recovery,” Masha Gordon, who
oversees more than $2.5 billion in assets as London-based head
of emerging-market equities at Pimco, said by e-mail today.
- Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Worst Start Ever on Economy.
Emerging-market stocks fell, extending the worst start to a year on
record, on concern the global economic recovery will wane. Lenovo Group
Ltd. (992) drove a selloff in technology companies after five analysts
downgrades. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.8 percent to
919.59 at 12:45 p.m. in New York, the lowest in five months. The decline
brought this year’s slump to 8.3
percent, the most in the same period since at least 1988.
- Japanese Banks’ Record Earnings Mask Profit-Growth Prospects. Japan’s
biggest banks, poised to achieve record annual earnings after last
year’s stock-market surge, may still disappoint investors as the equity
rally fades, leaving them reliant on a lending recovery for profit.
- Real Yields at Two-Year High Offer Little Comfort: Turkey Credit.
Turkish bond yields near the highest in two years once inflation is
accounted for are proving insufficient to lure traders seeing the need
for further rate increases to shore up the weakening currency. Real
yields on Turkey’s two-year notes touched 3.66 percent on Jan. 28, the
most since October 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s
higher than Russia, India, Indonesia and South Africa, the data show. Turkish
producer prices surged 10.7 percent in January from a year earlier, a
report showed yesterday, suggesting the full effect of lira weakness has
yet to be passed onto consumers, who saw inflation accelerate more than
forecast in the period, to 7.5 percent.
- Owl Creek Said to Short Denmark Expecting Debt Crisis. Owl
Creek Asset Management LP, one of
last year’s best-performing hedge-fund firms, is betting against
Denmark’s sovereign bonds in anticipation of a debt crisis, according to
two people familiar with the matter. The $3.2 billion New
York-based firm also bought credit default swaps on Danske Bank A/S
(DANSKE), the country’s biggest lender, founder and investment chief
Jeffrey Altman said last week at a
conference panel discussion in Palm Beach, Florida, according to
the people, who attended and asked not to be identified because
the information is private.
- European Stocks Little Changed; Vestas Drops as UBS Jumps. European stocks were little changed, paring earlier losses, as banks rallied while telecommunication companies fell.
UBS (UBSN) AG jumped 5.4 percent after Switzerland’s biggest bank posted
earnings that exceeded analysts’ projections. Royal KPN NV lost 4.8
percent after the biggest Dutch telecommunications provider said it
would cut jobs as a mobile-phone price war hurt earnings. Vestas Wind
Systems A/S dropped 4.8 percent after saying it seeks to raise capital. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2 percent to 317.58 at the close of trading after
earlier dropping as much as 0.8 percent. The Stoxx 600 has fallen 5.5
percent from its six-year high on Jan. 22.
- Copper Rises, Snapping Longest Slump Since 1995, as Dollar Drops.
Copper futures for March delivery rose 0.3 percent to
settle at $3.192 a pound at 1:21 p.m. on the Comex in New York.
The price dropped in the previous nine sessions, the longest
slump since December 1995.
- Natural Gas Surges as Forecasts Show Arctic Cold Persisting. Natural gas futures jumped in New
York, rising for the first time in four days, on forecasts for a
polar blast that would deplete stockpiles of the heating fuel. Gas gained as much as 7.2 percent as MDA Weather Services
predicted below-normal temperatures in most of the lower-48
states through Feb. 13.
- U.S. 1-Month Bill Rate Highest Since October Debt Ceiling Debate. Rates on one-month bills reached the
highest since October’s debt-ceiling deadlock after Treasury
Secretary Jacob J. Lew reiterated yesterday that the U.S.
expects to run out of borrowing capacity by the end of February. Rates surged to as high as 0.14 percent from 0.0304
percent, Bloomberg Bond Trader data show.
- Plunging Stocks Push Volatility to Biggest January Gain: Options. Investors snapping up insurance
against stock losses after $1 trillion was erased from U.S.
equity values have pushed the cost of options to a record increase for the start of a year. The
Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped 34 percent last
month for the biggest January advance since it was created in 1990, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The VIX climbed 16 percent yesterday to 21.44, a one-year high.
Wall Street Journal:
- Health-Care Law Expected to Take Greater Toll on Workforce. The
Affordable Care Act is projected to reduce the number of full-time
workers by roughly 2.3 million people through 2021 and insure 2 million
fewer people this year
than previously estimated, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday. The
CBO had previously estimated the labor force impact would be around
800,000 people in that time frame. CBO said the jobs figures largely
represent Americans who will choose not to work rather than those who
will lose their jobs or have their workweeks reduced because of the law. The
new estimates could further complicate the political landscape ahead of
the midterms for some vulnerable Democrats, as Republicans are planning
to use the health-care law as a cudgel in November. While the White
House has been working to reverse the number of workers who are leaving
the labor market, and CBO's new estimates on this phenomenon could
embolden many in the GOP.
- Microsoft(MSFT) Names Satya Nadella as CEO. Bill Gates Leaves Chairman Post to Become Technology Adviser.
- Mexico's Stocks Fall After Long Weekend. Mexico's stocks opened sharply lower Tuesday as local investors
returned from a long holiday weekend, while the peso recovered from the
previous session's losses in international trading. The benchmark IPC index was recently down 1.5% at 40268 points on
volume of 16.7 million shares worth 519.1 million pesos ($38.8 million).
Bellwether America Movil (AMX, AMX.MX) L shares were down 1.2% at
MXN14.11.
Fox News:
- Obama heaps more blame on Fox in part-two of O'Reilly interview. (video) President Obama extended his criticism of Fox News during the second
part of his interview with host Bill O’Reilly, suggesting the network
has profited by unfairly covering such stories as the Benghazi terror
attacks and the IRS targeting of conservative groups.
MarketWatch:
- Hang Seng in correction as Hong Kong stocks drop. Hong Kong shares dropped into correction
territory Tuesday, hitting their lowest level since late July as a U.S.
stock selloff extended to Asia. The blue chip Hang Seng Index
fell 637.65 points, or 2.9%, to 21,397.77, just above a session low of
21,388.61 hit shortly before the close.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Financial News:
- Risk rises, yields fall – but hunger for debt grows. Investor appetite for higher returns is pushing many of them
into ever-riskier debt investments, apparently undaunted by fears of
overheating and last week’s emerging-market rout. Overheating in debt markets – government and corporate – was
identified as the top concern of top finance industry professionals
polled by Financial News at the start of 2014, but the past month has
seen investors willing to accept ever more aggressive terms in their
hunt for yield. Among the signs:
Forbes:
Reuters:
- Fed's Lacker says tough to see pause in tapering ahead. The U.S. Federal
Reserve will probably keep reducing monthly asset purchases at its
current pace and it would be hard to make the case for a pause in the
tapering process, a senior Fed official said on Tuesday.
Richmond Federal
Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said U.S. stocks had performed well
looking at the last year and recent moves likely reflected a downward
adjustment in expectations for growth.
- Fed's Evans sees 'high hurdle' to deviating from pace of QE3 taper. Only a sharp economic downturn or
unexpected rise in inflation could force the Federal Reserve to
pause or speed up the pace at which it is cutting its massive
bond-buying program, a top Fed official said on Tuesday. "I think it's probably a high hurdle to deviate from that
pace over the next several meetings," Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank President Charles Evans told reporters after a speech here.
Evans said that world financial markets should not be surprised at the
Fed's decision to keep tapering its third round of quantitative easing,
or QE3, because the cuts come in response to improved momentum in the
economy.
- Farm machinery maker Agco forecasts weak demand for 2014. Agriculture machinery maker Agco Corp
warned of weak demand in 2014 due to reduced farm
income and forecast current-quarter earnings well below Wall
Street expectations. Economic uncertainty in Europe, coupled with a slowdown in
demand from U.S. farmers, has weighed on Agco as corn prices
continue to slide, pressured by a record crop in 2013.
- Boehner: House Republicans want to tackle debt drivers as part of deal. U.S. Congressional Republicans
are aiming for deficit-reduction steps as part of any deal to
raise the nation's debt limit but have not decided on a strategy
yet, House Speaker John Boehner said on Tuesday.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals -.87% 2) Utilities -.64% 3) Disk Drives -.23%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- TTWO, ARMH, AFOP, DNB, BRO, FN, PPS, CFN, OAS, UTX, MDT, TVIX, ETN, CPHD, LGP, VRSN, TMH, CEO, LMNX, ORMP, FUEL, VLRS, TX, SU, ADVS, SZYM and GDOT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) JRCC 2) BBT 3) VLO 4) LL 5) XHB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) PCG 2) EMC 3) F 4) DO 5) TTWO
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Restaurants +1.71% 2) Steel +1.31% 3) Construction -1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ATMI, FURX, IPHI, ENTG, KORS, YUM, HW, IDTI, ITUB, ABG, ACM, OZM, LL, ITMN, FOSL, AOL and XYL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) TTWO 2) HZNP 3) XLU 4) EA 5) EDC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) YUM 2) KORS 3) AMZN 4) CME 5) LLY
Charts: