Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.01%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.27% 2) Medical Equipment +.44% 3) Agriculture +.37%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMAP, HAS, GALT, ITMN, KNDI, ICPT, FEYE, CDE, HAS, GTAT and YELP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SWY 2) IRM 3) ANGI 4) NFX 5) CCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BA 2) MCD 3) DKS 4) LUV 5) TD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Hong Kong Students Clear Barricades as Crisis Talks Start. Pro-democracy protesters allowed civil servants to enter Hong Kong’s government offices as demonstrations that had paralyzed parts of the city for 10 days thinned after the start of talks with student leaders. Civil servants started entering offices from at least 7 a.m. after protesters who had besieged the buildings cleared some barricades yesterday. The move followed an ultimatum from the city’s leader to open the site where 3,000 people work by today or face possible police action.
• Ukraine Prepares for East Buffer Zone With Artillery Vow. Ukrainian troops prepared to set up a buffer zone to cement a monthlong truce between them and the pro-Russian separatists they’ve been battling for half a year. While the government said some insurgents are continuing to violate the truce and reported the deaths of two soldiers, the military declared a complete halt to artillery fire. The move is a precursor to an army pullback to help create a demilitarized zone, President Petro Poroshenko said. An international commission is determining the boundaries of the no-fire area. 
• World Bank Cuts Developing East Asia 2015 GDP Forecast. The World Bank lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year and next as China’s expansion moderates and policy makers brace for tighter global monetary conditions. The region is forecast to grow 6.9 percent in 2014 and 2015, down from 7.1 percent projected in April, the Washington-based lender said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released today. China will expand 7.4 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year, compared with 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent previously forecast, the report showed.
• Neves to Face Rousseff in Brazil in Surprise Comeback. Aecio Neves pulled off a surprise second-place finish to force a runoff with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, pitting a candidate favored by investors against an incumbent who says the end of her party’s 12-year rule threatens policies that pulled 35 million out of poverty. The incumbent of the Workers’ Party, or PT, has 41 percent of the votes, followed by Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, known as PSDB, with 34 percent and Marina Silva with 21 percent, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court reported based on 97 percent of ballots counted.
• Seven Economic Shifts Underlying Hong Kong’s Divide With Beijing. Underlying the test to China’s control of Hong Kong with pro-democracy protests over the past 10 days are economic tensions that have fueled social unease and concern over the city’s place within the nation. Without the release valve of free elections to vent their frustration, demonstrators have taken their anger towards what they perceive as an unrepresentative government to the streets.
• Asian Stocks Rise on U.S. as Hong Kong Swings; Gold Falls. Asian stocks rose, rebounding from a six-day slide in the regional index, while Hong Kong shares fluctuated as protesters in the city vowed to fight on. The dollar was near a four-year high after American payrolls data and gold slid to a 2014 low as platinum and palladium tumbled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent by 11:36 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix index jumped 1.3 percent after the yen’s biggest drop for 2014 on Oct. 3.
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Wall Street Journal:

• Hong Kong Protests Enter New Phase. Police Show No Signs of Clearing Protest Areas With Force. This city’s government met for the first time late Sunday with student leaders in an effort to resolve a political stand-off that has paralyzed three commercial districts here, while fears of a crackdown eased at the main protest site outside government headquarters Monday morning. As dawn broke on the protest sites Monday, protesters were mostly asleep on the roads. Police were standing back and taking no action to enforce an earlier threat to clear the areas.
• BHP(BHP) Plows Ahead on Iron-Ore Production. Shakeout Is Possible, With Further Pressure on Already-Falling Prices.
• Weak Export Growth Raises Prospect of Currency Moves. Sluggish Global Trade Growth Is Tempting Officials to Devalue Their Currencies to Jump-Start Economies.
• The Next Front Line in the Islamic State Onslaught. Lebanon’s precarious state has worsened as ISIS beheads citizens and holds hostage Lebanese troops and police.

Barron's:

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MarketWatch.com:

• Becton Dickinson(BDX) to buy CareFusion(CFN) for $12.2 billion. 
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Fox News:

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CNBC:

• HP(HPQ) returns to breakup plan it shelved three years ago.
• Time to buy insurance on an ‘unsustainable’ market?
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Zero Hedge:

• Why The Chinese Admire "Putin The Great".
• During An Ebola Pandemic All Of Your Rights Would Essentially Be Meaningless.
• "Off The Grid" Indicators Suggest US Economy Anything But On Solid Ground. (graph)
• Market Breadth Has Collapsed Around The World. (graph)
• Risky Asset Outflows Surge Again As "Up-In-Quality" Rotation Accelerates. (graph)
• US Vacancy Rate Rises For First Time Since 2009 In Wake Of Apartment Building Construction Surge.
• Putin Rules Out Capital Controls As Ruble Hits Record Lows, "Curbs Risk" By Shifting To Non-Dollar Settlements.
• 5 Things To Ponder: Motley Cognizance. (graph)
• Low-Volume Melt-Up Fails To Stall Small Caps Worst Streak In Over 2 Years. (graph)
• Thousands Sign Petition To Ban Flights From Ebola Countries; Two Removed From Newark Airplane By Hazmat Crew.
• Violence Erupts As Hong Kong's Leader Threatens To Use "All Necessary Measures To Restore Social Order".
• Bridgewater Warns Low Volatility Markets "Sow The Seeds Of Their Own Demise". (graph)
• Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns.
• Obama's Economic Recovery In Pictures.
• Citi Warns "The Land Of The Rising Sun Is Setting". (graph)
• OccupyCentral Protesters End Government Building Blockade After Hong Kong Police Unleash Tear Gas, Pepper Spray "To Avoid Injuries". (pic)
• Jim Grant: We’re In An Era Of "Central Bank Worship".
• Game Over Abenomics: "This Week Japan Will Acknowledge It Is In Recession", Goldman Reveals.
• Analysts Are Slashing Guidance Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Results. (graph)
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ValueWalk:

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Business Insider:

• Saudi Arabia Is Losing Its Grip On Oil.
• ISIS Is Now Threatening To Execute A Former US Army Ranger.
• The Communist Party Is Facing Its Toughest Challenge Since 1989.
• The UN Says Iraq Slave Markets Sell Women For $10 To Attract ISIS Recruits 
• Everybody Is Panicking At America's 'Ground Zero' For Ebola.
• REPORT: 'Russians' Behind Huge JPMorgan Cyberattack.
• A New Gossip App Called 'Streetchat' Has Teens Throwing Up Their Hands: 'What The Heck Is Wrong With Us?'.
• US NURSES: We're Not Prepared To Handle Ebola Patients.
• Hong Kong Protesters Remain In The City Center Amid Warnings Of A Crackdown.
• ISIS Is Getting Dangerously Close To Baghdad International Airport.
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Wall Street All-Stars:

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CNN:

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NY Times:

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Washington Post:

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Reuters:

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Seeking Alpha:

Financial Times:

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Telegraph:

• Robots replace humans in mines as commodity slump forces cost cuts. Major mining firms could have converted around 40pc of their machinery to operate autonomously by the end of the decade.
• Hans-Werner Sinn: eurozone doomed to 'decade of crises'. Hans-Werner Sinn, the president of the respected Ifo think-tank, says France could put the future of the single currency at risk and warns that the Ukrainian crisis threatens to trigger a "triple-dip depression" in parts of the bloc.

BBC:

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Focus:

• Bundesbank's Weidmann Warns of ECB Taking ABS Credit Risk. ECB risks being offered lower-quality asset-backed securities, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann quoted by Focus magazine as saying. The ECB is at risk of overpaying, he said.

Handelsblatt:

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Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

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To Vima:

• ECB Measures Will Have Limited Impact, Ackermann Says. Recent liquidity-enhancing steps by ECB, including TLTRO program, ABS purchases will have limited impact as stand-alone measures, former Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackerman cited as saying in interview. ECB's policy tools are exhausted, he said. It rests up euro area national govts to implement structural reforms that will kick-start private investment, Ackermann said. US-style quantitative easing not likely in euro area due to political difficulties. The Federal Reserve may start raising rates in 1Q, instead of 2Q currently projected, and faster than currently anticipated, he said.

Folha de Sao Paulo:

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Nikkei:

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Kyodo:

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China Securities Journal:

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China Daily:

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Xinhua:

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Shanghai Securities News:

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Financial News:

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Al-Arabiya:

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Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on .

• Bearish commentary on .

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.0 -2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 -1.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.18%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CAMP)/.19
• (TCS)/.11
• (TISI)/.34

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, RBA decision, German Factory Orders, (ADBE) analyst briefing, (BKH) analyst day and the (CDE) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising global growth fears, increasing emerging markets debt angst and technical selling offset a weaker yen, short-covering and lower long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,797.02 +.81%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,797.02 +.81%

• DJIA 15,794.0 +.61%

• NASDAQ 4,125.85 +.54%

• Russell 2000 1,116.55 -1.27%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.80 +1.09%

• Wilshire 5000 18,896.0 +.58%

• Russell 1000 Growth 846.15 +.90%

• Russell 1000 Value 898.89 +.60%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 420.66 +.36%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,424.11 +.57%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 900.70 +1.11%

• Transports 7,242.33 -.64%

• Utilities 503.85 -.48%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.77 +1.34%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.62 +.15%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,144.42 -.85%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 960.38 +.33%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 198,368 -.40%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -14 -31

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.03 +4.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 360,217 +2.58%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,561,179 -1.93%

• Total Put/Call .81 -6.90%

• OEX Put/Call .84 +12.0%

• ISE Sentiment 127.0 +30.61%

• NYSE Arms .73 -51.97%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.29 -16.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.78 -11.13%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.87 -7.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.36 -8.59%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,480.05 -.69%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.705 Trillion -.04%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $1.879 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.9 -13.3%

• AAII % Bears 36.4 +11.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 289.77 +2.28%

• Crude Oil 100.13 +2.60%

• Reformulated Gasoline 274.80 +4.16%

• Natural Gas 4.76 -2.27%

• Heating Oil 305.10 -5.56%

• Gold 1,266.80 +1.90%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.68 +1.66%

• Copper 324.45 +1.57%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 399.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.90 USD/Ton -1.39%

• Lumber 354.20 -.62%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,371.15 +2.78%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0907 +14.35%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.32 +.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.60 -25.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.80 -1.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 80.69 -.69%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.55 +1.40%

• Yield Curve 238.0 +7 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.68% +4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.066 Trillion +.17%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.78 -2.38%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 156.0 -2.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 -3.63%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 111.04 -4.37%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 260.0 unch.
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 96.22 +1.82%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.95 -.41%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 361.75 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.25 -6.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +3.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.25 -4.80%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 93.80 -7.15%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 321.0 -5.27%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 110.0 -.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.686 Trillion +.32%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 989.70 -2.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 334,000 +1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.23% -9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 405.20 +.45%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -33.1 -1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.27/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,092 -1.62%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,164.88 +.58%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 247,109 +.50%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Restaurants +2.4%

• Steel +2.2%

• Agriculture +2.0%

• Gold & Silver +1.7%

• Airlines +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -2.3% 

• Oil Tankers -2.3%

• Coal -2.7%

• 3D Printing -3.7%

• HMOs -3.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• FURX, OHRP, GMCR, SZYM, NATL, ATMI, MTRX, AKAM, SNCR, HW, LVLT, CLW, CPSI, DATA, ORLY, ARTC, ENTA, CBM, ENTG, CSC, IPHI, NEU, OMCL and SWI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)

• PIKE, NYLD, AMG, MLI, SWM, SFLY, VRSN, HAIN, EPZM, TDW, FLO, RPRX, CHRW, ALR, ITCI, IT, PPO, TW, DRIV, NATI, TYL, DNB, LABL, MAT, CLNE, PCCC, SLCA, HGR, MDSO, GDOT, VNDA, BBG, FUEL, SPR and ITMN

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.24 -11.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.42 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.36 -1.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.93 -4.23%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +44.57%

• Total Put/Call .82 -6.83%

• NYSE Arms .81 +24.83% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.78 -2.73%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.80 -1.52%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.0 -2.41%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 111.04 -.72%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 325.44 -.18%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 361.89 -.77%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 237.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $120.90/Metric Tonne -.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.60 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.80 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +235 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long