Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 17.93 -7.72%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.08 +1.21%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.72 -2.01%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.01 +.40%
- ISE Sentiment Index 67.0 -31.6%
- Total Put/Call .96 -9.43%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.22 -3.04%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 768.0 -.11%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.75 -5.97%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.42 -3.49%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.78 -1.72%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 383.48 -4.88%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.50 +.02%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +1.25 basis points
- TED Spread 24.25 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 127.0 +7.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.18/Metric Tonne +1.17%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 -4.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.60 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 -.7 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +6.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +245 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Conflict Toll Rises as Warring Factions Muster Forces. The death toll of Ukraine’s separatist
conflict jumped at end January, the United Nations said, as
civilians fled a battle for a crossroad town and the government
and rebels moved to pour more weapons and men into the fight. Germany said the European Union may slap new sanctions on
Russia if the crisis worsens, while the town of Debaltseve, a
key railway and road crossing between the cities of Donetsk and
Luhansk, remained under fire from separatists, according to
Ukrainian military spokesman Leonid Matyukhin. The region of
Donetsk, where 3,070 people have fled the most dangerous
locations since Jan. 28, is continuing efforts to evacuate
people, the regional government said on its website. The “issue of evacuating civilians, including children,
needs to become one of the key priorities,” Iryna Herashchenko,
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s envoy to eastern Ukraine,
said in Kiev on Tuesday, calling for a meeting with the Red
Cross and the United Nations.
- Greek Retreat on Writedown May Move Fight to Spending. Greece’s retreat from its call for a debt
writedown may shift attention to the second front in Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras’s conflict with euro-area leaders: his
desire to increase spending and roll back austerity. Tsipras won election Jan. 25 on promises to raise wages and
pensions, end public-sector firings and stop state asset sales -
- all policies that would breach the conditions on the bailout
aid. He also advocated a writedown, a policy dropped late Monday
in favor of a debt exchange amid virtually unanimous opposition
in the euro area. “Reality is about to bite: Tsipras will realize that the
constraints are very tight,” Kevin Featherstone, professor of
contemporary Greek studies at the London School of Economics,
said in an e-mail. “It seems certain that the euro zone will
insist on Greece committing itself to continued structural
reform.”
- Greek Bonds Rally With Italian Peers as Tsipras Said to Retreat. Greece’s three-year notes rallied and
credit-default swaps tied to its bonds slid as the government
was said to retreat from a demand for a debt writedown, looking
to avoid a crisis that may have led to private-investor losses.
- Germany’s Yield Below Japan 1st Time Bodes Ill for Europe. For the first time on record, Germany’s 10-year yields are below Japan’s, an ominous signal for European
Central Bank President Mario Draghi as he seeks to revive the
euro area’s economy. Tumbling rates on German debt, the euro area’s benchmark
sovereign securities, are inviting comparisons with Japan, a
nation wracked by decades of zero nominal economic growth and
falling consumer prices. Germany’s inflation rate turned
negative in January for the first time in more than five years,
while the ECB is preparing to pump more cash into the region’s
economy via a quantitative-easing program to fend off the risk
of deflation. “It doesn’t provide much in the way of reassurance in
terms of the market’s take on the ECB’s ability to reflate the
economy via its imminent foray into QE,” said Richard McGuire,
head of European rates strategy at Rabobank International in
London. “Japanification of Europe is quite a familiar theme.
The market is of the view that the disinflationary forces
currently gripping Europe are by no means transitory.”
- Empty VIP Tables in Macau Means Trouble for $44 Billion Industry. In the heart of Macau stands a 56-story
tower with soaring gold-trimmed arches. On the second floor of
the L’Arc Macau, there’s a sight that would have been
unimaginable a year ago: An abandoned room for high-end
gamblers. There are no tables, no dealers and no players. Carpets
have been rolled up, leaving a trash-covered concrete floor. A
sign on the VIP room reads “Heng Sheng Group,” one of Macau’s
top junket operators, which shuttle Chinese high-rollers to
exclusive gaming venues and finance their bets.
- LVMH Earnings Miss Estimates as Chinese Spend Less on Luxury. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the
world’s largest luxury-goods maker, reported full-year earnings
that missed analysts’ estimates as Chinese shoppers curbed
spending on Vuitton handbags and Hennessy cognac. Profit from recurring operations fell to 5.72 billion euros
($6.6 billion) from 6.02 billion euros in 2013, Paris-based LVMH
said today in a statement after markets closed, the first annual
decline since 2009. Analysts predicted 5.83 billion euros,
according to the average of 25 estimates.
- European Stocks Rise as Greece Backs Down From Writedown Request. European stocks climbed as concern that
Greece would defy its creditors eased after the nation retreated
from a plan to ask the euro area to write down debt. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.8 percent to 370.28 at
the close of trading. The gauge pared gains of as much as 1.3
percent after a person familiar with the matter said Germany
expects talks with Greece to drag on until the current round of
aid runs out.
- Commodities Head for Biggest 3-Day Rally Since 2012 as Oil Gains. Commodities are showing signs of life after prices
fell to a 12-year low. Brent crude is poised for a bull market, climbing 2.6
percent as of 11:42 a.m. in New York on speculation that
production will be curbed. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22
raw materials advanced 1.3 percent to 102.68, set for the best
performance over three days since 2012. Sugar, copper and wheat
advanced more than 2 percent.
- Abu Dhabi Cuts Oil Prices to Six-Year Lows in Global Crude Rout. Abu Dhabi, the desert emirate holding about
6 percent of the world’s oil, cut export prices for its crude
for the seventh consecutive month and to the lowest since 2009
amid a global price slump. Murban crude, its main grade, sold in January for $46.40 a
barrel, or 23 percent below December’s level, according to an e-mailed statement from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Murban hasn’t
sold for less since February 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg
show.
- Staples(SPLS) and Office Depot(ODP) Surge After Discussing Merger. Staples Inc. and Office Depot Inc. shares
soared after the two retailers were said to enter merger talks,
bowing to pressure from activist investor Starboard Value to
pool their resources.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Cuba sounds warning ahead of next round of U.S. talks. Cuba warned the United States on Mondaythat it wants American diplomats to
scale back aid for Cuban dissidents before the two countries can reopen
embassies in each other's capitals.
The long-time
adversaries are negotiating the restoration of diplomatic relations as a
first step toward reversing more than five decades of confrontation.
Officials for both governments met in Havana in January and a second
round of talks is expected to be held in Washington this month.
- Russia would lose $160 billion a year from $45 oil - central bank.
Russia would lose some $160 billion (106 billion pounds) over a year if
oil prices averaged $45 per barrel, Central Bank Governor Elvira
Nabiullina said on Tuesday. "The decrease in oil
prices from $100 to $45 per barrel has led to a drop in export revenues
of $160 billion in annual terms, according to our estimates," Nabiullina
told journalists.
Financial Times:
- European Central Bank resists latest Greek bailout plan. The
European Central Bank is resisting a key element of the Greek
government’s new rescue plan, potentially leaving Athens with no source
of outside funding when its international bailout expires at the end of
the month. Yanis Varoufakis, Greek finance minister, had proposed to European
officials that Athens raise €10bn by issuing short-term Treasury bills
as “bridge financing” to tide the country over for the next three months
while a new bailout is agreed with its eurozone partners.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -2.52% 2) Gold & Silver -1.53% 3) Airlines -.83%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- KTWO, SSYS, RCII, RAVE, PRLB, DBVT, GNC, MTSI, ARDX, BAH, OPK, LMNX, DDD, NOV, CCMP, ISIS, MNK, HTLD, IBB, NAO, IPHI, BIB, EGP, ALK, VRX, ALK, GDOT, GNC, BHE, PRLB and BLUE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) SPLS 2) DNR 3) WFM 4) EWG 5) DO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) SSYS 2) HCA 3) CNP 4) MMM 5) PBR
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Steel +3.98% 2) Oil Service +2.90% 3) Coal +2.66%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ESPR, ADVS, CSIQ, IDTI, SPLS, WLL, SM, AN, LEA, SPR, LPI, OAS, WPZ, ROSE, SN, LINE, SSNC, TROX, SC and EPE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) FSL 2) ODP 3) NLY 4) OAS 5) SSYS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) JEC 2) LMT 3) WLL 4) EMN 5) JLL
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Obama Urged by Former Officials to Arm Ukrainians Against Rebels. Eight top former U.S. officials urged the
White House on Monday to start sending lethal weaponry to
Ukraine in its battle against pro-Russian rebels, adding to the
pressure on the administration as fighting there has escalated
again. Administration officials say they are focused on a
diplomatic solution but are examining all options. The call by the eight former officials came in a new report
that urges the administration and NATO to send $3 billion of
military aid, including anti-armor missiles, to bolster
Ukrainian forces over the coming three years.
- Greece is seeking a third debt restructuring: Who’s on the hook? Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is asking the rest of the euro
area to reduce his country’s debt burden. So who’s on the hook if he
succeeds? Tsipras has already pledged to repay in full Greece’s obligations to
the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. He’s also
said private investors won’t be asked to shoulder additional losses
after taking the hit for two restructurings since the start for the
European crisis. That leaves European taxpayers in the firing line.
- Greece Said to Retreat on Debt Writedown Amid EU Opposition. Greece retreated from its call on the euro area to
write down its debt, and instead proposed to exchange existing
borrowings for new bonds linked to the country’s growth. Speaking to about 100 financiers in London
late on Monday, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis outlined plans to swap
some Greek debt owned by the European Central Bank and the European
Financial Stability Fund for the new securities, according to a person
who attended the meeting and asked not to be identified because they
weren’t authorized to speak publicly. Varoufakis indicated that the move
would allow Greece to avoid imposing a formal haircut on creditors, the
person said.
- Lenovo Profit Beats Estimates on Smartphone Share. (video) Lenovo surged the most in a year in Hong Kong trading after posting
profit that beat analysts’ estimates as its Motorola Mobility
acquisition helped capture a larger share of the global smartphone
market. Bloomberg's Ed Lococo reports on "On The Move Asia."
- Asia Stocks Follow U.S. Shares Higher as Oil Rises to Month High. Asian stocks rose, tracking a jump in U.S.
equities, as energy shares led gains after oil rebounded to a
one-month high.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 140.62 as
of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo. Crude gained on speculation investors
bought contracts to close out bearish bets amid a falling rig
count. Shares in Australia climbed before the central bank
reviews its benchmark interest rate.
- Islamic State Reach Cited by Pentagon Gloomier Than Obama’s View. Islamic State extremists are expanding their
international footprint in the Mideast and North Africa, the
U.S. military’s top intelligence official said, offering a far
bleaker security assessment than have President Barack Obama and
his political appointees. The Sunni extremist group is extending its reach beyond
Iraq and Syria using “ungoverned and under-governed areas” to
establish affiliates in Algeria, Egypt and Libya, Marine
Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency, said in prepared testimony obtained in
advance of a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday.
- Fed Says Some Banks Tightened Oil Loans, Saw Auto Loan Risk. The Federal Reserve said some banks
tightened standards or terms to energy-industry borrowers in the
fourth quarter, after the price of oil plunged. U.S. banks “reported little change in their standards”
for commercial and industrial loans overall, the Fed said today
in its Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, conducted Dec. 30 to
Jan. 13 with 73 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches of foreign
banks. “Banks which reported having tightened either their
standards or terms on C&I loans predominantly pointed to
industry-specific problems as the main reason for having
tightened their lending policies to non-financial businesses,”
the Fed said. “Some survey respondents specifically noted their
concerns about the oil and gas sector resulting from the sharp
decline in the price of oil as a reason that they had tightened
their lending policies.” Banks anticipated more risk with sub-prime car loans, with
71 percent saying they expect loan quality to be unchanged while
29 percent said “loan quality is likely to deteriorate
somewhat,” according to the Fed survey.
Wall Street Journal:
- FCC to Propose Strong ‘Net Neutrality’ Rules. Agency Would Regulate Broadband Providers Tightly Like Telecommunications Firms. The Federal Communications Commission is about to fundamentally
change the way it oversees high-speed Internet service, proposing to
regulate it as a public utility. Chairman Tom Wheeler is
reaching for a significant expansion of the agency’s authority to
regulate broadband providers, according to multiple people familiar with
the matter.
- What Democrats and the CBO Don’t Get. The numbers reveal that a robust economy, not higher taxes, is the most reliable way to increase federal revenue. The recent rule change by House Republicans to incorporate the
macroeconomic impact of major legislation into official budget
estimates—“dynamic scoring”—has triggered heated criticisms. But three
decades of hard accounting data, in addition to supporting the rule
change, should prompt Washington to reconsider the way it thinks about
what drives federal revenues.
Barron's:
- Stratasys(SSYS) Plunges 27%: Q4, ’15 View Miss on MakerBot; Steps Up Spending. The stock has deepened its decline, now down $21.33, or almost 27%, at $58.76.
Shares of 3-D printer maker Stratasys (SSYS) are down $15.08, over 18%,
at $65, and fell as much as 22%, in late trading, after the company this
afternoon warned its revenue in Q4 will miss analysts’ expectations,
owing to problems getting new product out the door within its consumer
MakerBot unit. Shares of competitors are also trading down: 3D
Systems (DDD) is off $2.70, or almost 9%, at $27.55; Voxeljet (VJET) is
down 43 cents, or 5%, at $7.99; and ExOne (XONE) is down 33 cents, or
2.3%, at $14.14.
MarketWatch.com:
- China debt party nears the end of road. Despite an interest-rate cut late last year, China’s economy has got
off to a slow start, with weak factory and service-sector readings. The
typical response to such data is to expect more monetary stimulus. But
have we reached the point where rate cuts are no longer able to lift
China’s debt-heavy economy? As China enters its third year of
slowing growth, there is growing concern the debt reckoning cannot be
kicked down the road any longer. Credit has been growing faster than the
economy for six years, and there has always been a recognition this
cannot continue indefinitely.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Gallop:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -3.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 -1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for December are estimated to fall -2.4% versus a -.7% decline in November.
- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for February is estimated at 51.5 versus 51.5 in January.
Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for January are estimated to fall to 16.6M versus 16.8M in December.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, UK Construction
PMI, weekly US retail sales reports, (DAL) January traffic data, (EMR)
annual meeting, (SAP) investor day and the (WEN) investor day could also
impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares
in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 21.31 +1.62%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.03 +.37%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.98 +.18%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.50 -1.56%
- ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 unch.
- Total Put/Call 1.07 -4.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.16 -.28%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 768.0 +.37%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.73 -2.63%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.33 +4.61%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.21 -.18%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 401.26 -.88%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.47 -.01%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 24.75 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.45/Metric Tonne +.39%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.50 -4.45 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +2.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.20 -.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
