Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Risks Losing IMF Support for Aid If War Escalates. Ukraine risks losing support from IMF member
countries for a proposed $17.5 billion bailout if the conflict
in the former Soviet republic continues to escalate, according
to two people familiar with the matter. The new four-year loan program is awaiting approval by the
International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents
the lender’s 188 member nations. Getting the panel’s consent
will become more challenging if pro-Russia rebels continue their
advance and seize territory such as the strategic port city of
Mariupol, one of the people said.
- Bond Rout Might Not Be So Bad as Economists Cut Yield Forecasts. This year’s selloff in Treasuries might not
be so bad after all. While economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict prices will
fall, sending benchmark 10-year yields up more than half a
percentage point, they’re also scaling back forecasts for the
size of the decline. Ten-year yields will be 2.62 percent by
Dec. 31, based on the latest responses, down from about 3.60
percent that the surveys projected six months ago.
- Asian Stocks Retreat From Highs as Aussie Bonds Climb. Asian stocks slipped from a five-month high
while Australian bond yields fell to a three-week low after the
nation’s business investment slumped more than estimated. Oil
held above $50 a barrel in New York.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent by 11:10
a.m. in Tokyo, with five stocks falling for every three that
gained.
Wall Street Journal:
- Fed’s Yellen Fends Off Charges of Partisan Tilt. House Republicans seize
on calendar records, pre-election speeches that seem to favor Democrats
as evidence of need to audit central bank. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen came under fire from Republican
lawmakers who charged she had politicized the central bank, allegations
she rejected in her most acrimonious congressional hearing in a year as
Fed chief.
- U.S., Israel Trade Barbs Over Iran Talks. Top U.S. officials sharpened efforts to undermine Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his Washington visit. Top U.S. officials sharpened efforts to undermine Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his visit to Washington next week
as tensions rose over his push to scuttle a possible nuclear deal with
Iran. At what U.S. officials say is a historic low point in
relations between the longtime allies, the White House now sees Mr.
Netanyahu as a serious threat to President Barack Obama’s efforts to
reach an agreement with Iran.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Edaily:
- S. Korea Showing Signs of Deflation Stage, PM Lee Says. South
Korea's economy is showing signs typical of deflation stage amid global
economic slowdown, citing Prime Minister Lee Wan Koo.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.75 unch.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.75 -1.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CRI)/1.27
- (SFY)/-.32
- (DDD)/.25
- (CHS)/.02
- (KSS)/1.80
- (SHLD)/-1.89
- (JCP)/.13
- (ROST)/1.11
- (GPS)/.74
- (MTZ)/.38
- (HLF)/1.22
- (MNST)/.59
- (ADSK)/.24
- (OVTI)/.29
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The CPI for January is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.4% decline in December.
- The CPI Ex Food and Energy for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in December.
- Durable Good Orders for January is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a -3.4% decline in December.
- Durables Ex Transports for January are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.8% decline in December.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for January are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.6% decline in December.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 283K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2395K versus 2425K prior.
9:00 am EST
- The FHFA House Price Index for December is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in November.
11:00 am EST
- The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for February is estimated at 3.0 versus 3.0 in January.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Lockhart speaking, Japan CPI, German Unemployment Rate, $27B 7Y
T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA
natural gas inventory report and the (CR) analyst conference could also
impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity
and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open
mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: About Even
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.68 -.07%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.99 +.05%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.80 -2.87%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.70 -1.70%
- ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +3.41%
- Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.64 -.56%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 650.0 -5.30%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.70 +.44%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.21 -.62%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.60 -2.17%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 379.73 +.49%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 +.30%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -4.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- Yield Curve 136.0 -7.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.94/Metric Tonne -1.67%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.10 +.7 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.30 +2.4 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +39 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Computer Hardware -2.40% 2) Airlines -2.15% 3) Utilities -1.51%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SAM, LL, ES, HURN, WBAI, SODA, NSTG, HPQ, DOOR, CHK, RJET, CLGX, CENX, NUVA, HEI, HLS, CHS, YY, DBVT, BBG, VRX, BPT, DYN, UNT, CVC, KALU, EV, BPT, CLGX, RJET and LC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HPQ 2) LL 3) VIAB 4) LEN 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) PBR 2) GTLS 3) LL 4) CHK 5) PBR
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +1.85% 2) Construction +1.11% 3) REITs +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- BNFT, EYES, FLTX, RUBI, BSFT, VRSK, FSLR, XXIA, CBI, GOGO, ICLR, MGA, AWAY, PTX, SM, DY, NFX, MWE, HWAY, MATX, GWR, GSM, DWA, CLH, FSLR, MMSI and PLAY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) NWBO 2) LL 3) ACAS 4) HPQ 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) FSLR 2) AGU 3) TJX 4) MCD 5) JPM
Charts:
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.76 -5.49%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.80 +.10%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.21 -1.07%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.40 -.90%
- ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -23.62%
- Total Put/Call .97 +11.49%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 6165 -2.98%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 688.0 -.14%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.58 -3.98%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.35 -4.52%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.0 +.32%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 378.36 -2.10%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.82 +.02%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- Yield Curve 143.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $64.01/Metric Tonne +.90%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.80 -2.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.8 -.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.70 +1.0 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 -3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Putin Rejects Talks to Bolster Ukraine Cease-Fire. (video)
- European Commission Accepts Greek Economic Measures After Review. (video) Euro-region finance ministers approved
Greece’s package of new economic measures and paved the way for
an extension to the country’s bailout agreement. The agreement came
on a conference call on Tuesday,
according to an official involved in the talks who asked not to
be named in line with policy. It was confirmed by Slovak Finance
Minister Peter Kazimir on Twitter. Based on the provisional agreement
between Greece and its
official creditors on Feb. 20, the approval of the list was a
condition for extending the availability of bailout funds for
another four months. The current program, which has been keeping
Europe’s most indebted state afloat since 2010, was scheduled to
expire at the end of this month. The list of commitments includes
maintaining current state-asset sales, consolidating pension funds to
reduce costs and
revamping tax collection and administration.
- Russian Bonds Slide as Second Junk Rating Upends Ruble Rally. Russian borrowing costs surged the most in
more than a month and the ruble weakened on concern the nation’s
second junk rating this year will force some investors to sell
sovereign bonds. The yield on local-currency government bonds jumped the
most since Jan. 13 in the first trading day for domestic
securities since Moody’s Investors Service cut Russia to Ba1 on
Friday. The ruble lost 1.5 percent against the dollar, paring
the biggest gain in emerging markets this month, while banks led
declines in the benchmark Micex Index.
- Fidelity Calls End to Emerging Local Bond Rally as Dollar Climbs. The last time developing nations’ local
bonds were this expensive relative to their dollar debt, the
biggest losses on record ensued. Some of the world’s largest
fund managers say another selloff may be in the offing now. Domestic notes sold by emerging-market governments have
returned 2.5 percent this year in local-currency terms, the best
start to a year since 2012, as interest-rate reductions from
Indonesia to Romania cut yields to within 0.48 percentage point
of equivalent dollar-denominated bonds. That’s too small a
spread to reward buyers for the exchange-rate risk, according to
investors including Fidelity Worldwide Investment and Pictet
Asset Management Ltd.
- Europe Stocks Extend 2007 High as Greek Shares Jump on Aid Deal. European stocks extended a seven-year high
as Greece reached a bailout deal and the Federal Reserve pledged
patience on raising interest rates. Greek shares surged. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent to 387.25 at
the close of trading, pushing its gains this year to 13 percent.
The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 Index closed at an all-time high,
climbing 0.5 percent to surpass the previous record in 1999.
Greece’s ASE Index soared 9.8 percent, following a market
holiday on Monday, as euro-area leaders approved a bailout
extension for four more months.
- Cattle Hides Replace Entrails as Dark Omens of Economy. (graph)
- Yellen Signals Fed to Be Flexible After Patient Guidance Changes. (video) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sought to
prepare investors for a change in the Fed’s pledge to be
“patient” on raising interest rates, saying it would provide
flexibility to tighten when conditions are ripe. A shift in guidance would signal the economy has improved
to the point where an increase “could be warranted at any
meeting,” while not necessarily committing policy makers to a
rate increase on a specific timetable, Yellen said in testimony
Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
- Transocean(RIG) Leads $20 Billion Debt on Junk’s Cusp. Transocean Ltd. is poised to be the first in
a wave of energy-related issuers downgraded to junk status,
making the speculative-grade market even more vulnerable to the
fate of oil as concern mounts that crude will resume its slide. The world’s largest offshore driller, which has about $9
billion of borrowings, may be stripped of its investment-grade
ratings soon after it reports earnings Feb. 25, according to a
report last week from Barclays Plc. As much as $20 billion of
energy-related debt may be cut to junk within 18 months,
expanding what is already the largest part of the high-yield,
high-risk market by 11 percent, analysts led by Brad Rogoff and
Eric Gross wrote in the report.
ZeroHedge:
