Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.33%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +.79% 2) Defense +.77% 3) Computer Services +.65%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RTI, PNK, GPRE, GLPI, WLL, MAC, WUBA, BYD, THRX, BIG, GLPI, UTIW, THRX, CLDN and VSLR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MAC 2) HRB 3) GPRE 4) WLL 5) RPTP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JNPR 2) UTIW 3) MAC 4) BIG 5) DHI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greek Tensions Revived as Creditors Reject Reform List. Greece’s provisional agreement with creditors to avert a default started to crack as European officials said the country’s latest proposals fell far short of what was tabled two weeks ago and Greek ministers floated the prospect of a referendum if their reforms are rejected. The list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors such as tourists, is “far” from complete and the country probably won’t receive an aid disbursement this month, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday.  

• Greece Mulls Referendum as No Deal With Lenders in Sight. Greece’s anti-austerity coalition is considering calling a referendum on government policy as euro-area finance ministers are set to withhold further aid payments at a meeting in Brussels tomorrow. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said he doesn’t expect the Eurogroup to make any decisions on Greece on Monday. Reform proposals must first be approved by the Greek parliament and then implemented before the next bailout disbursement is made, Dombrovskis said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

• China Overtakes North Korea as Japan’s Top Security Concern. Japanese people are more concerned about China’s military strength and assertiveness in Asia than any other security issue, according to a public opinion poll released by the government at the weekend. More than 60 percent of respondents to the survey conducted in January said China concerned them, compared with 46 percent in a similar poll three years earlier. The number worried about North Korea fell to about 53 percent from around 65 percent.  

• China Defaults Seen in Private Bonds as Real Yields Surge. A forklift maker, a leather producer and a textiles company have missed payments on privately sold bonds in China this year, as the central bank’s failure to cut borrowing costs in line with slowing inflation wrecks profits. HSBC Holdings Plc is forecasting more defaults after consumer price increases in the world’s second-biggest economy cooled to 0.8 percent in January, the slowest since 2009. Rates on the benchmark one-year lending rate after accounting for living costs rose to a five-year high at 4.59 percent. Prices received by manufacturers dropped 4.3 percent last month, matching January’s decline that was the biggest since 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey before data due tomorrow.

• Tesla(TSLA) Cuts Jobs in China; Sales Are Slow on Car Charging Concerns. Tesla Motors Inc., the electric-car maker led by billionaire Elon Musk, said it’s cutting jobs in China after a local newspaper reported the company will reduce staff by 30 percent. Tesla will eliminate some positions as it makes structural changes to its business in China, Gary Tao, a local spokesman for the carmaker, said Monday by phone. He said he didn’t know how many jobs will be affected. The Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported earlier Tesla will eliminate 180 of the 600 positions at its China unit because sales haven’t met expectations. 

• Russian Court Charges Five in Connection With Nemtsov Murder. A Russian court indicted five men on Sunday in connection with the murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, little more than a week after his death sparked protests and brought condemnation from world leaders. The men, from the country’s predominantly Muslim North Caucasus, were charged in Moscow a day after being arrested, the Interfax news service reported, citing Judge Natalya Mushnikova. One of the accused, Zaur Dadaev, admitted a role in the murder, Interfax said.

• Japan’s Emergence From Recession Weaker Than First Thought. Japan’s emergence from recession was weaker than estimated as companies unexpectedly cut investment and drew down inventories, offsetting a pickup in consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 1.5 percent in the three months through December from the previous quarter, less than a preliminary 2.2 percent, revised government data show. The rebound followed a contraction caused by an increase in the sales tax last April.

• China’s Stocks Fall to Three-Week Low as Brokerages Slump. China’s stocks fell to a three-week low amid concern new share sales will divert funds from existing equities and as securities firms tumbled after regulators said they may allow banks to conduct brokerage businesses. Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. retreated more than 3 percent after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it’s considering allowing banks to apply for brokerage licenses. Jiangxi Copper Co. dropped 2.6 percent to pace declines for commodity shares as a steeper-than-forecast drop in imports signaled weak demand. The Shanghai Composite Index fell for a third day, losing 1 percent to 3,209.22 as of 9:45 a.m.

• Asian Stocks, Bonds Pace U.S. Rout on Payrolls; Oil Slips. Asian stocks and bonds fell, tracking a selloff in the U.S., after American jobs data spurred traders to bring forward bets on higher interest rates and Japanese growth was revised down. The dollar held gains, while oil and copper slipped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.8 percent by 10:52 a.m. in Tokyo, extending last week’s drop as Japan’s Topix index slipped from a seven-year high.

• Iron Ore Majors Raising Supply as Surplus, China Sink Prices. Global iron ore supplies are set to expand further as the world’s biggest producers press on with capacity expansions, raising shipments of the steel-making raw material into a market facing a record surplus and sinking prices. Net supplies will increase about 60 million to 75 million metric tons in 2015, in line with a 75 million ton rise in 2014, as mine expansions in Australia and Brazil more than offset closures in China, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Morgan Stanley predicts a net rise of 63 million tons this year, with production expected to peak in September to October. 

• China’s Scrap Copper Imports Seen Lingering Near 10-Year Low. China’s imports of scrap copper, the feedstock for one-third of the country’s production of the metal, are unlikely to rebound from a 10-year low as U.S. supplies remain tight, according to the world’s largest listed metals and electronics recycler. Industries that provide the bulk of recycled material in the U.S., the biggest exporter of scrap metal to China, have not yet recovered sufficiently to improve supply, Michael Lion, chairman of Sims Metal Management Asia Ltd., said in a March 6 interview in Hong Kong.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The Clinton Foundation and Haiti Contracts. After the earthquake in 2010, the Clintons’ outsize influence in the small nation increased. The Clinton Foundation lists the Brazilian construction firm OAS and the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB) as donors that have given it between $1 million and $5 million. Those relationships are worth learning more about. OAS has been in the news because it is caught up in a corruption scandal centered on Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras. In November Brazilian police arrested three top OAS executives for their alleged roles in a bribery scheme involving inflated contracts

Fox News:

• McConnell vows no debt default as deadline nears. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday that the Republican-controlled Congress won’t allow the government to default as the Treasury Department quickly approaches its so-called “debt ceiling.” “I made it clear after November that we won’t shut down the government or default on debt,” the Kentucky Republican told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

MarketWatch.com:

• Tech insiders dumping stocks as their companies buy them back. The next time a technology company executive says the billions being spent on stock repurchases are a sign of confidence in the company’s business, or because they believe it’s a good investment, feel free to hit the B-S button.

Zero Hedge:

• Crude Awakening: Why Next Week Could Be Carnage For Oil ETFs. (graph)

• Aussie Boom Towns Go Bust As Iron Ore Prices Crash To Record Lows. (graph)

• Every Government In The EMU Will Soon Be Paid To Borrow.

• 5 Things To Ponder: Spring Break Reading List. (graph)

• Markets Are Now Beyond The Control Of The Fed.

• E&P Writedowns Loom As Reserves Overvalued By 60%.

• The Nasdaq Has Become The Biggest Circle-Jerk In History. (graph) Goepfert said insider selling by tech execs is now at the heaviest pace seen in at least eight years.

• Why "Competitive Devaluation" Doesn't Work. (graph)

• The Charts That Matter. (graph)

• Jim Bianco Explains Why QE Failed, And Why The ECB Is Making The Same Mistake As The Fed.

• Goldman Confirms Subprime Responsible For Collapse In Auto Sales. 

• Two Men Charged Over Nemtsov's Murder, Opposition Fear Scapegoating. (video)

• Where The Hedge Fund Herd Was Parked Last Week: The Most Long And Short Net Specs. (graph)

• Greece "Risks Bankruptcy" As Europe Rejects Varoufakis Payment Plan; Another Referendum Fiasco Ensues.

• "Ignore This Measure Of Global Liquidity At Your Own Peril", Albert Edwards Warns. (graph)

• The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different". (graph)

• Bart Chilton: Since 2007's Rise Of The Machines, "Markets Have Not Been The Same".

• Greenspan's Insulting Admission Of Fed Culpability.

• Blackstone Buys America's Most Iconic Skyscraper With Rent Collected As "America's Landlord". (graph)

• Oil Price Faces Another 20% Drop Due To Contango Math. (graph)

• An Inflection Point For Keynesian Parlor Tricks.

• The Fed's $210 Billion Hangover (That No One Is Talking About). (graph)

• What Happened 12 Of The last 13 Times Jobs And Stocks Were Here? (graph)

• NATO's Not Enough! President Juncker Calls For Creation Of European Army To "React Credibly" To Russia.

Business Insider:.

• Albert Edwards: Global liquidity is evaporating.

• The Fed may raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

• A mall with a ski slope and sea lions is planned for south Florida.

• Conservatives are suggesting the White House is going after Bob Menendez because of Iran.

• Oil prices could plunge as the US overflows with oil.

• ECB official: Greece must forget Syriza's 'false promises'.

• The ECB's Lunatic Full Monty Treatment.

• Africa's deadliest terror group just pledged allegiance to Islamic State.

• Austria is fast becoming Europe's latest debt nightmare.

• Greece’s economy is running on empty.

• Expectations for the Apple Watch are going through the roof.

• Here's all of the area that ISIS controls.

• More than half of Wall Street expect the first Fed rate hike to happen in June.

• Head of the Benghazi probe says there are 'huge gaps' in Hillary Clinton's email record.

Reuters:

• Exclusive - Foreign banks tighten lending rules for China state-backed firms. Some banks are adopting stricter lending criteria for China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), demanding collateral from some companies they used to deem as safe as government debt, as Beijing tries to reform its bloated firms and the economy slows.

• Exports jump in China, but slide in imports signals economic weakness. China's exports picked up in the first two months of 2015, propelled by February's exceptionally strong performance that was inflated by the timing of Lunar New Year, while a slide in imports pointed to persistent weakness in the economy. China's imports tumbled 20.2 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, signalling stubborn weakness in the world's second-largest economy that may require more policy support, analysts say. Imports inched up 0.4 percent in 2014. "The sharp decline in imports highlights slackening domestic demand, so we expect the government to take more policy measures to stabilise economic growth," Nie said. A 20.5 percent slide in February imports was the sharpest since the global financial crisis.

Telegraph: 

• Europe holds 'noose around Greek necks' as Athens scrambles to make debt payments. Alexis Tsipras says the European Central Bank is strangling the Greek economy as panic grips the cash-strapped government.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +4.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.5 +2.5 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (URBN)/.57

• (UNFI)/.67

• (IDT)/.40

• (KFY)/.46

• (CASY)/.83

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (ROL) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, German Trade balance, Labor Market Conditions Index for February, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom conference, (MCD) Feb comps, (AAPL) watch media event and the (QCOM) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike fears, global growth worries, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,071.26 -1.58%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,071.26 -1.58%

• DJIA 17,856.78 -1.52%

• NASDAQ 4,927.37 -.73%

• Russell 2000 1,217.52 -1.29%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.49 -1.57% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 136.72 -.83% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,643.89 -1.48%

• Russell 1000 Growth 994.21 -1.30%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,012.85 -1.74%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 500.41 -2.61%

• Solactive US Cyclical 139.76 -2.01%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,036.06 -1.70%

• Transports 8,907.41 -1.30%

• Utilities 570.03 -4.06%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 113.74 +.91%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.80 -2.22%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,200.61 +.08%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 991.73 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 237,538 -.11%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -16 -205

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.47 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 262,289 -2.80%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,687,908 -.44%

• Total Put/Call 1.28 +29.29%

• OEX Put/Call 1.82 +37.88%

• ISE Sentiment 41.0 -64.04%

• NYSE Arms .80 -35.25%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.22 +15.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.76 +.21%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.69 +6.48%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.38 +4.74%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,900.62 +.28%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.672 Trillion -.69%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.072 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 39.8 -12.3%
• AAII % Bears 23.4 +15.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 220.14 -1.76%

• Crude Oil 49.71 +.28%

• Reformulated Gasoline 188.02 -4.85%

• Natural Gas 2.85 +4.83%

• Heating Oil 186.84 -14.42%

• Gold 1,165.50 -3.97%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 169.69 -.49%

• Copper 260.95 -3.69%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 59.49 USD/Ton -4.91%

• Lumber 281.80 -4.93%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,135.88 -3.20%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.6% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1379 -5.75%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.21 +.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.5 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.30 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 +1.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 48.0% chance of no change, 52.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/18

• US Dollar Index 97.70 +2.53%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.77 -2.18%

• Yield Curve 152.0 +15.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.24% +25.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.449 Trillion +.03%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.54 +.24%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 +.23%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.50 -4.51%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.99 +3.87%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 350.10 -.09%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.50 +.35%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 336.56 +.29%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 453.84 -5.35%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 -.22%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% unch.

• TED Spread 25.75 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.50 unch.

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 691.0 +6.0%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.45 +.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 390.28 +3.96%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 85.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.990 Trillion +.13%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 998.60 -2.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 304,750 +10,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.75% -5 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 420.70 +.10%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.5 +.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.46/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 561.0 +3.90%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,064.23 -1.11%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%
• Rail Freight Carloads 241,598 +13.1%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.9%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +2.7%

• Alt Energy +1.6%

• Biotech +1.5%

• Banks +1.0%

• I-Banks +.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -4.5% 

• Energy -4.5%

• Steel -7.4%

• Coal -10.9%

• Gold & Silver -12.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (37)

• EYES, OHRP, VSLR, PEIX, LEAF, OMER, DVAX, HRTX, DGI, CLDN, W, PCYC, AIRM, DTSI, KYTH, BIO, FIX, MVNR, MNST, INSM, AEO, FSL, AMBA, PMC, FCB, TNDM, NTRI, HZNP, MEI, IBP, ARUN, HPTX, XENT, HRTG, TSE, WMC and SWHC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (37)

• INSY, NRF, CALD, TRK, SCMP, HTGC, PRAA, SPLK, GSIG, SQBK, SMTC, AMED, EVDY, TNET, IM, JOY, CECE, GEF, AAC, WMAR, PEGA, TPC, NSR, PCRX, BOBE, ANF, CENX, CORE, PRIM, CALA, VEEV, CDI, EGL, TUBE, OPWR, LL and ENOC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Fed Rate Hike Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Worries, Homebuilding/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.59 +11.04%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.91 -1.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.38 +2.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.37 +6.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 59.0 +63.9%

• Total Put/Call 1.22 +28.42%

• NYSE Arms .72 -41.04% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.77 +2.75%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 690.0 +.65%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.44 +3.27%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.39 -5.14%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.01 +1.65%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 389.84 +1.06%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 +.12%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 unch.

• TED Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 152.0 +5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.49/Metric Tonne -.40%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.50 +7.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.3 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -130 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long