Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike worries, global growth fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, technical selling, commodity weakness and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,053.40 -.86%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,053.40 -.86%

• DJIA 17,749.31 -.60%

• NASDAQ 4,871.76 -1.13%

• Russell 2000 1,232.14 +1.20%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.99 -1.45% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 136.57 -.11% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,513.17 -.60%

• Russell 1000 Growth 984.92 -.93%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,007.74 -.50%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 494.06 -1.27%

• Solactive US Cyclical 138.23 -1.09%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,011.49 -2.37%

• Transports 8,945.13 +.42%

• Utilities 572.92 +.51%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 114.03 +.26%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.58 -3.06%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,192.95 -.64%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 993.91 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 234,464 -.28%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -19 -3

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.13% -35.08%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 260,659 -.62%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,670,894 -1.01%

• Total Put/Call 1.21 -5.47%

• OEX Put/Call .93 -48.90%

• ISE Sentiment 78.0 +90.24%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +66.25%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +5.26%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.26 -.82%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.02 +14.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.01 +6.27%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,631.28 -1.50%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.691 Trillion +.68%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.934 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.60 -20.6%
• AAII % Bears 25.41 +8.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 210.70 -4.29%

• Crude Oil 44.84 -9.92%

• Reformulated Gasoline 176.23 -6.38%

• Natural Gas 2.73 -4.28%

• Heating Oil 171.30 -8.49%

• Gold 1,152.40 -1.35%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 168.54 -.68%

• Copper 266.35 +1.93%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 57.66 USD/Ton -3.08%

• Lumber 274.0 -2.56%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,113.54 -1.92%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.0% +60 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0693 -3.21%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.41 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.10 -12.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.10 -5.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.60 +11.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/18

• US Dollar Index 100.33 +2.67%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.08 -2.74%

• Yield Curve 146.0 -6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.11% -13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.451 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.90 +2.13%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.0 +2.32%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.10 +3.51%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 66.64 +3.42%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 359.24 +3.56%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.14 +.88%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 350.76 +4.22%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 485.39 +6.88%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.84 -.29%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70%-13.0 basis points

• TED Spread 25.0 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +5.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.78 +6.95%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 733.0 +6.20%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.84 +2.52%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 419.52 +7.49%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 85.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.998 Trillion +.30%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,023 +2.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 302,250 -2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.86% +11.0 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 415.40 -1.26%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.3 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.44/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 560.0 -.89%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,067.94 +.35%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
• Rail Freight Carloads 253,762 +5.03%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +2.6%

• I-Banks +2.5%

• REITs +1.9%

• Education +1.8%

• Retail +1.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -3.1% 

• Computer Hardware -4.4%

• Gaming -6.1%

• Oil Service -6.6%

• Coal -10.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• CBMG, RTI, LBIO, PNK, CLDN, BBNK, TWOU, FSTR, CVTI, EXPR, LTM, SUPN, URBN, OME, ISSI, LJPC, CFI, GLPI, MYCC, DMND, XOXO, MYRG, BANC, JRN, LL, MW, EAGL and BIG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• TTPH, ITCI, PLOW, ESL, UNFI, MMI, RAVN, TPUB, INTC, ERA, ANAT, LMOS, SGMS, ACAD, KKD, TITN, PGEM, BLT, CKP, IDT, VRA, MRD, NNBR and CMTL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Worries, Oil Plunge, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.67 +8.11%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.66 -1.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +4.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.22 +3.19%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -7.79%

• Total Put/Call 1.14 +6.54%

• NYSE Arms 1.72 +70.32% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.20 +3.47%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 733.0 +.36%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.90 -.75%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.10 +.98%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.64 +2.69%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 418.59 +2.64%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.84 +.06%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 25.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 147.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.66/Metric Tonne -.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.10 -4.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.1 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.60 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.11%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.71% 2) Oil Service -3.27% 3) Construction -2.18%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MMI, WSTC, CTRN, CBPX, FRC, LL, FTD, WX, HIBB, ZUMZ, PUK, HOG, MED, UNF, SGMS, DEST, HPTX, LORL, E, HABT, EPZM, RTEC, PLCE, CENX, TKR, CFG, SMCI and HABT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ULTA 2) HOG 3) ORCL 4) HYG 5) WDC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BHI 2) BRCM 3) GM 4) CNX 5) WHR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.03%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +.10% 2) Gaming -.06% 3) HMOs -.13%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CKEC, LOCO, IMPV, RGEN, HLF, GWPH, ANN, ANAC, EBIX, P, W, TTPH, BMRN, NXPI and TA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FSL 2) HOG 3) ULTA 4) LOCO 5) EUO
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MBLY 2) NXPI 3) VRX 4) CVS 5) KKD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume