Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Euro Area Said to Give Greece Five Days to Deliver Plan. (video) Greece has until Monday to show how it will follow through on reform commitments after the euro area ruled out speedy access to aid funds, three officials said following a conference call of finance ministry deputies. The currency bloc left the door open for Greece to access 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) that has been allocated to aid the banking system, if the cash-strapped nation can show how it will move ahead with the changes that its creditors are seeking. At the same time, the euro zone’s other 18 members were adamant that Greece needs to deliver specific plans to see any more bailout cash, the officials said.  
  • Ukraine Bonds Drop as Moody’s Adds to Default Concern Amid Talks. Ukraine’s Eurobond fell for a third day after Moody’s Investors Service warned that the risk the country will default on its debt is almost certain. The bonds dropped to a record 38.03 cents on the dollar on Wednesday after Moody’s lowered the nation’s credit rating by one step to Ca, the second-lowest level and on par with Argentina. Ukrainian debt has handed investors losses of 30 percent this quarter, the worst among 59 emerging-market peers, as investors speculated the former soviet republic’s creditors will be forced to accept steep writedowns. 
  • Estonia Must Counter ‘Hostile’ Russian Propaganda, Adviser Says. Estonia’s plans for a Russian-language television channel will seek to counter propaganda from the regime of President Vladimir Putin amid tensions over the Kremlin’s intentions in the Baltic region, according to a government adviser.
  • Sputtering Emerging Markets Threaten Next Global Deflation Shock. The momentum is fading. The cooling of emerging markets runs the risk of chilling the global economy. The world’s growth engines after the 2008 financial crisis, emerging markets are losing momentum as manufacturing in China contracts and recessions loom in Brazil and Russia. At Credit Suisse Group AG, economists predict the expansion of developing countries will slow to 3.8 percent this year, the weakest since 2009. By contrast, they see a 2.2 percent pace in industrial nations, the strongest in five years.
  • Saudi Stocks Decline Most in World as Rebels in Yemen Advance. Saudi Arabian stocks dropped the most in more than three months, leading regional markets lower, after forces loyal to Yemen’s Shiite Muslim rebels edged closer to the stronghold of Saudi-backed President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. The Tadawul All Share Index was the world’s worst performer among more than 90 measures tracked by Bloomberg after it fell 5 percent to close at 8,868.12, the steepest loss since Dec. 16. The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index, a gauge of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s top 200 equities, also dropped the most in more than three months. Forces loyal to the president collapsed as rebels moved deeper into the south toward the port city of Aden. Violence in the Arabian Peninsula’s poorest country is threatening to turn into a civil war, raising concerns that neighbors including Saudi Arabia may be drawn into the conflict.
  • Brazil Real Drops as Central Bank Plans to Pare Back Support. Brazil’s real dropped after the central bank said it will scale back support for the currency. The real lost 0.4 percent to 3.1521 per dollar at 11:26 a.m. in Sao Paulo, extending its run as the worst performing major currency this year. The real has lost 16 percent against the dollar on concern that weakening fiscal accounts will cause the country to lose its investment-grade credit rating. Officials will stop swap auctions that had bolstered the currency at the end of this month, the central bank said in a statement Tuesday.
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Halt Seven-Day Advance as China Retreats. Emerging-market stocks ended their longest rally in seven months amid concern slowing growth in China is hurting corporate earnings and South Africa may raise interest rates this year. Shares in Shanghai fell for the first time in 11 days, ending the longest winning streak in 23 years. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent, after a 10-day, 12 percent rally, the longest winning streak since May 1992.
  • Europe Stocks Post Worst Drop in Two Months After Nearing Record. European stocks posted their worst drop in more than two months, after nearing a record on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 1.1 percent to 397.95 at the close of trading, as all but two of 19 industry groups slid. Technology shares posted the worst performance, extending losses as U.S. peers also fell. ARM Holdings Plc and ASML Holding NV lost more than 5.5 percent. Europe’s benchmark gauge closed 0.7 percent away from its 2000 record on Tuesday, up 18 percent for the year amid European Central Bank stimulus. That pushed the Stoxx 600 to the highest valuation based on projected profits in at least 10 years, relative to its own history and to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data show. 
  • Oil Rises After U.S. Crude Output Gain Shrinks, Dollar Slips. Oil rose to a two-week high in New York as the shrinking size of U.S. crude production gains and a falling dollar outweighed rising supply. U.S. crude production rose 3,000 barrels a day to 9.42 million in the seven days ended March 20, the Energy Information Administration said. The smallest increase since January left output at the highest level in more than three decades. Prices retreated initially as the report showed that crude supplies increased 8.17 million barrels to 466.7 million last week, the most in records compiled since August 1982. U.S. oil explorers sidelined 41 drilling rigs last week, the smallest drop in three weeks and down from the average 59-rig weekly decline in February, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc.
  • Strong Dollar Hurting U.S. Steel Mills as Imports Flood Market. The U.S. economic recovery is gaining steam and the dollar has surged. That’s bad news for the $100 billion domestic steel industry. Foreign competitors with weaker currencies pay less to produce the metal. That’s allowing them to undercut U.S. steelmakers in their own backyard as demand wanes in China, Russia and Brazil. The result: the amount of imported steel used in the U.S. has swelled in the first two months of 2015 to 33 percent from 28 percent in 2014, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. At the same time, idled production capacity at U.S. mills has grown to 31 percent, the highest since 2009
  • Gold Heads for Longest Rally Since 2012 on Interest Rate Outlook. Gold headed for its longest rally since August 2012 as signs of sputtering U.S. economic expansion fueled bets that interest rates will stay low for longer. Spot prices climbed for a sixth straight session, rising every day since Federal Reserve policy makers cut their projections for growth and suggested they aren’t in a hurry to raise borrowing costs. Higher rates usually send investors to assets with better yield prospects such as equities and bonds.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Boko Haram Abducts More Than 400 People, Says Nigerian Lawmaker. Islamist extremists fleeing international military offensive aimed at recapturing northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram militants have abducted more than 400 people—most of them women and children—in recent weeks as the Islamist extremists have fled an international military offensive aimed at recapturing northeast Nigeria, a Nigerian lawmaker said Wednesday. The militants have seized residents of the northeastern town of Damasak and its surrounding villages since January, Nigerian Senator Maina Ma’aji Lawan said. Mr. Lawan, who represents the region, said more than 70 women were taken from his hometown of Baga alone.
MarketWatch.com: 
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge: 
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • Q. and A. With Fed’s Dennis Lockhart: The Year to Raise Rates. Dennis Lockhart just entered his ninth year as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and during that time he has never voted to raise interest rates. He took the job during the very early days of the financial crisis, and he has never really had the chance. But that is about to change. Mr. Lockhart said in an interview Monday that he expected he would vote to start raising rates by September at the latest.
Telegraph: 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.16%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -7.05% 2) Semis -4.32% 3) Biotech -3.62%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • ENLK, SXCP, ZSPH, NSM, APOL, SXC, SONC, BURL, ESPR, FRAN, LBIO, LNN, AIRM, CALA, BIB, AMPH, IBB, CBMG, SRNE, LOPE, DQ, SJW, TSM, SAGE, HNP, TXN, TWTR, BIIB, DV, FNSR, HPY, LCI, NVDA, FRAN, HQY, BMRN, EBS, PTCT, LRCX, SWKS, DVAX, BLUE, LDOS, OVAS, QRVO, NLNK, SXC, TGTX, SRNE, ACAD, CLDN, ENLK, CLDN, CEMP, LBIO, ZIOP, ESPR and APOL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GLW 2) EMB 3) SMH 4) LXK 5) TXN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UPS 2) CMI 3) TWTR 4) F 5) TSLA
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.22%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Foods +3.52% 2) Energy +1.08% 3) Oil Service +.65%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KFX, KRFT, LL, LXK and TKC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KRFT 2) SN 3) OPK 4) LOCK 5) ZIOP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GRPN 2) XEL 3) MRK 4) GD 5) EL
Charts:

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Greeks Celebrate Independence as EU Creditors Discuss Their Fate. Greeks celebrate their independence Wednesday with a military parade and a folk-music festival sponsored by the Ministry of Defense, as European officials more than 1,000 miles away review the financial aid that will shape their future. The European Central Bank Governing Council will hold a weekly call to assess the Emergency Liquidity Assistance keeping Greece’s banking system afloat while euro-area finance ministry officials will have a separate discussion on the progress of the country’s economic policy program. Without access to capital markets, or the ECB’s normal financing operations, Greek banks rely on almost 70 billion euros ($76 billion) of ELA to cover a financing shortfall exacerbated by steep deposit withdrawals.
  • Ukraine Credit Rating Cut to Second-Lowest Level by Moody’s. Ukraine had its credit rating cut by Moody’s Investors Service to the second-lowest level as the country started debt-restructuring negotiations with bondholders. Moody’s lowered the rating by one level to Ca and said in statement that the likelihood of a default is almost certain. The credit outlook is negative. Private creditors are likely to suffer “substantial losses” as a result of the government’s restructuring plan, Moody’s analysts including Kristin Lindow wrote. Ukraine’s indebtedness will “remain very high, in spite of the debt restructuring and plans to introduce reforms,” they said.
  • The Place Where China Began Its One-Child Policy Is Dying. On the flat delta of the Yangtze River north of Shanghai, Communist cadres embraced the call to stem the nation’s ballooning population a decade before it became national policy in 1979. The result is that Rudong is a window on China’s future, a windswept place of old people, closed schools and growing retirement homes. “China will see more places like Rudong very soon,” said Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California at Irvine. “It’s a microcosm of the rapid demographic and economic transformation China has been experiencing the last decades. There will be more ghost villages and deserted or sleepy towns.” 
  • RBA Warns Easy Global Policy Lifts Risk of Office Price Fall. Australia’s central bank said easy monetary policy globally is spurring demand for the nation’s office buildings, even as vacancies climb and rents fall, raising risks of a future price slump. “Prices have continued to rise at a national level, driven in particular by investors’ search for yield in the global environment of low interest rates and ample liquidity, with the lower Australian dollar also likely to be adding some impetus to foreign demand,” the central bank said Wednesday in Sydney. “The risk of a large repricing and associated market dislocation in the commercial property sector has increased. 
  • Asian Stocks Advance as Consumer, Materials Shares Lead Gains. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index recovering Tuesday’s loss to head for a six-month high, as consumer staples and materials shares led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 148.98 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Google(GOOG) Makes Most of Close Ties to White House. Search giant averages a White House meeting a week during Obama administration.
  • Kraft in Talks to be Acquired by 3G Capital. A deal for food company would likely top $40 billion.
  • Biotech’s Rally Fuels Bubble Fears. As Valuations Skyrocket and Nasdaq Nears Record, Anxiety Builds. Nasdaq bubble fears are back. But this time around, the biggest dangers may not involve technology stocks. Instead, some investors are looking askance at biotechnology stocks, a sector that wasn’t nearly as developed when the Nasdaq Composite Index set its record close in 2000 of 5048.62.
  • Obama’s Israel Tantrum. The leader of the free world takes revenge on an ally. You’ll have to forgive President Obama. The leader of the free world is still having difficulty accepting that the Israeli people get to choose their own prime minister, never mind his preferences. The latest White House tantrum in the wake of Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election last...
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.5 +.25 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (APOL)/-.16
  • (PAYX)/.46
  • (FIVE)/.60
  • (FUL)/.37
  • (PVH)/1.73
  • (RHT)/.41
  • (WOR)/.33
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.8% gain in January.
  • Durables Ex Transports for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in January.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for February are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in January.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +4,912,500 barrels versus a +9,622,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,687,500 barrels versus a -4,473,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -856,250 barrels versus a +380,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54% versus a +.3% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • (MGA) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, German IFO, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (AXP) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Worries, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Utility/Hospital Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.45 +.30%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.59 -.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.29 -.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.13 -.69%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -40.91%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +13.95%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 +48.22% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.41 -.40%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,013.0 -.81%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.99 +1.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.62 +3.98%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.72 +.70%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 313.88 -1.32%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.03 -.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 131.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.86/Metric Tonne +1.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.80 +15.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.0 +11.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .7 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -51 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Russia Calls on U.S. to Remove Its Nuclear Weapons From Europe. Russia called for a ban on American nuclear weapons in parts of Europe, saying the U.S. is breaking an international agreement by holding joint nuclear training missions with NATO allies that don’t possess such weapons. Using ships and airfields as well as training crews from non-nuclear states from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in such exercises is “in direct contradiction to the letter and spirit” of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement on its website.
  • Euro area waits for Greek Plan CEuropean officials are preparing to assess Greece's third set of economic policy proposals with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urging Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to do what is needed to qualify for aid. Tsipras' government may submit a comprehensive list of policy measures aimed at securing more financial aid by the end of the week. That document needs the endorsement of Greece's official creditors and the finance officials' committee before ministers will consider whether it's up to scratch. Euro-area finance officials will hold a call on Wednesday to discuss progress on Greece, two people familiar with the plans said.
  • Soros Says Greece Now Lose-Lose Game After Being Mishandled. (video) The chances of Greece leaving the euro area are now 50-50 and the country could go “down the drain,” billionaire investor George Soros said. “It’s now a lose-lose game and the best that can happen is actually muddling through,” Soros, 84, said in a Bloomberg Television interview due to air Tuesday. “Greece is a long-festering problem that was mishandled from the beginning by all parties.”
  • French Output Growth Cools as Manufacturing Weakness Persists. France’s private-sector output lost momentum this month as manufacturing shrank for an 11th consecutive month, holding back the recovery. Markit Economics said on Tuesday that its composite Purchasing Managers Index for services and manufacturing slipped to 51.7 from 52.2 in February. While the factory measure rose to 48.2 from 47.6, it remained below the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction. The services gauge declined to 52.8 from 53.4
  • Banks Push European Stocks Higher With Stoxx 600 Nearing Record. Lenders led a rally in European stocks, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index near a record. Spain’s Banco Santander SA and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA climbed more than 1.5 percent, while France’s Societe Generale SA added 2.5 percent. Deutsche Lufthansa AG lost 1.6 percent as Germanwings, its low-cost subsidiary, operated a plane that crashed in southern France. The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.3 percent to 402.49 at the close of trading in London, reversing an earlier drop of as much as 0.5 percent as data showed that euro-area business activity expanded faster than forecast.
  • Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution. Beijing, where pollution averaged more than twice China’s national standard last year, will close the last of its four major coal-fired power plants next year. The capital city will shutter China Huaneng Group Corp.’s 845-megawatt power plant in 2016, after last week closing plants owned by Guohua Electric Power Corp. and Beijing Energy Investment Holding Co., according to a statement Monday on the website of the city’s economic planning agency. A fourth major power plant, owned by China Datang Corp., was shut last year. 
  • Here's How $20 Oil Could Become a Reality If Storage Runs Out. (video) The looming storage crisis explained.
  • Morgan Stanley(MS) Cuts Commodities Outlook on China Demand. Morgan Stanley cut its price forecasts for almost all base metals and bulk commodities as China’s “dormant” industry fails to bolster demand in the world’s biggest consumer of copper and iron ore. The bank reduced its 2015 estimate for nickel by 23 percent from its previous estimate to an average $14,815 a metric ton and lowered copper by 16 percent to $5,945 a ton. It cut its iron ore outlook by 28 percent and coking coal by 16 percent.
  • Bullard Says Markets Risk Rate-Rise Surprise If They Ignore Fed. Investors risk suffering a Federal Reserve interest-rate rise surprise unless market expectations for future tightening line up with the outlook of policy makers, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard said active discussion by the Fed about the timing of the first rates increase since 2006 ought to ensure that it doesn’t come as a shock when policy eventually moves.
  • Speed Traders Team Up in Microwave-Tower Superhighway Plan. Two key competitors in the technological arms race that’s driving financial markets ever closer to light speed have called a truce. KCG Holdings Inc., a brokerage with roots in high-frequency trading, and World Class Wireless LLC will unite their networks of microwave towers, connecting major market centers around the globe, according to a statement released last month. WCW, which is owned by ECW Wireless, has the same address and senior managers as high-frequency trader Jump Trading LLC. A representative for Jump said the firm declined to comment.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Profit recession: This is what you need to know. (video) The suddenly dour forecast for corporate profits in 2015 is accompanying fears that a recession will be close behind. In fact, the two have gone pretty much hand in hand over the years, which is why a looming earnings pullback in corporate America has sparked concern on Wall Street. Since the end of World War II in 1945, each of the 10 economic recessions has been accompanied by a decline in earnings growth.
  • Nasty tax surprise for Obamacare customers (video).
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider: 
The Times:
  • West’s tech bubble is ‘about to burst’. Silicon Valley is in a bubble and it is about to burst, one of the technology industry’s shrewdest investors has warned. A considerable number of “unicorns” — young, private technology companies worth $1 billion or more — are doomed to fail in the coming months, Sir Michael Moritz, the chairman of Sequoia Capital, told The Times.