BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, April 10, 2015

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 7:21 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,102.06 +1.70%

DJIA 18,057.65 +1.66%

NASDAQ 4,995.98 +2.23%

Russell 2000 1,264.77 +.73%

S&P 500 High Beta 35.17 +2.24%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.08 +3.25%

Wilshire 5000 22,042.85 +1.55%

Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.05 +1.75%

Russell 1000 Value 1,029.93 +1.49%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 509.58 +.94%

Solactive US Cyclical 138.91 +1.51%

Morgan Stanley Technology 1,024.39 +2.36%

Transports 8,767.83 +1.89%

Utilities 591.40 +.26%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 120.33 +1.82%

MSCI Emerging Markets 42.48 +2.93%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,221.69 +1.03%
HFRX Equity Market Neutral 998.59 -.52%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 241,020 +.95%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 189 +232

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.7% -67.59%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 252,043 +11.2%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,743,733 +.21%

Total Put/Call .85 -24.11%

OEX Put/Call .84 +211.11%

ISE Sentiment 107.0 +57.35%

NYSE Arms .79 +51.92%

Volatility(VIX) 12.58 -14.25%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.18 -3.07%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.24 -3.03%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.89 -2.08%

Smart Money Flow Index 17,723.20 +.37%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.633 Trillion -.02%
ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.338 Billion

AAII % Bulls 28.7 -18.9%
AAII % Bears 24.2 -24.4%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 217.12 +.48%

Crude Oil 51.64 +4.22%

Reformulated Gasoline 180.73 +2.0%

Natural Gas 2.51 -6.97%

Heating Oil 176.61 +4.53%

Gold 1,204.60 +.18%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 172.85 +1.19%

Copper 273.40 +.09%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 47.53 USD/Ton +.96%

Lumber 266.80 unch.

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,116.63 -1.91%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.0% +120.0 basis points

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0714 +2.06%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.99 -.01%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.2 -4.9 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.90 -6.2 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +4.1 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

US Dollar Index 99.34 +2.68%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.10 -2.37%

Yield Curve 139.0 +2.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.95% +4.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.445 Trillion +.05%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.94 +195%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 175.0 -2.50%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.91 -2.45%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 58.41 -.29%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33361 -1.77%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.76 -2.77%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 340.76 -2.77%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 342.85 -8.01%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 115.24 +.56%

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82% +1.0 basis point

TED Spread 26.0 unch

2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 +1.0 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +2.0 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.41 -4.12%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,130.0 +1.03%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 62.46 -8.72%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 297.33 -4.40%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 90.0 unch.

M1 Money Supply $2.985 Trillion +.06%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,018.80 +.80%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 282,250 -3,250

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.66% -4.0 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 458.90 +.42%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.9 +1.7 points

Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% +10 basis points

Nationwide Gas $2.40/gallon unch.

Baltic Dry Index 580.0 -2.68%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 969.06 -2.59%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0+9.09%
Rail Freight Carloads 271,127 -2.59%

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth +1.7%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Value -.1%

Leading Sectors

Oil Service +6.7%

Oil Tankers +5.4%

Gaming +5.3%

Biotech +5.2%

Energy +4.4%

Lagging Sectors

Coal -.4%

I-Banks -.4%

Education -1.2%

Homebuilders -2.1%

REITs -2.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

AGRX, NHTC, VTAE, MYL, ZEP, SQBG, CLAC, AXTA, EPAM, AGTC, CCO, FRPT, PLAY, FGL, INFA, NRZ, PIR and WBMD

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

FCH, DERM, LGF, CBMG and OCUL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Biotech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:21 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 12.73 -2.75%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.13 -.84%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.97 +.81%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.91 -2.23%

ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 -13.82%

Total Put/Call .77 -24.51%

NYSE Arms .72 -3.92%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.50 -.18%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,113.0 +1.45%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.46 -4.06%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.91 -.07%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.32 +.06%

Emerging Market CDS Index 297.59 +1.01%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 115.24 +.17%

2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +.5 basis point

TED Spread 25.0 -.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

Yield Curve 139.0 -2.0 basis points

China Import Iron Ore Spot $47.53/Metric Tonne -1.68%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.20 +1.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.90 +.5 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +3.8 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating +167 open in Japan

DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:52 PM

Bloomberg:

Euro’s Reserve Status Jeopardized as Central Banks Dump Holdings. Quantitative easing may be helping Europe achieve its economic targets, but it’s also undermining the long-term viability of the euro by tarnishing its allure as a global reserve currency. Central banks cut their euro holdings by the most on record last year in anticipation of losses tied to unprecedented stimulus. The euro now accounts for just 22 percent of worldwide reserves, down from 28 percent before the region’s debt crisis five years ago, while dollar and yen holdings have both climbed, the latest data from the International Monetary Fund show.
Any Greece Deal Signals ‘Kicking the Can’: Craig. (video)
European Stocks Extend Record for Best Weekly Gain Since January. European stocks extended an all-time high, posting their biggest weekly gain since January. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.9 percent to 412.93 at the close of trading in London. It has climbed 3.8 percent in a holiday-shortened week.
Iron Ore Aid in China Will Prolong Global Glut, Fitch Says. Policies to help sustain iron ore production in China will only prolong a global surplus, according to Fitch Ratings Ltd., which said the government’s move this week to cut miners’ taxes will have limited impact as prices sink.
VIX Finds Comfort Zone as Fed Soothes Investors’ Profits Anxiety. Investors are facing the prospects of declining corporate earnings, slower economic growth and higher interest rates. Yet a gauge of market volatility is showing a level of comfort not felt in almost two years. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which is derived from the price of hedges on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, closed Thursday more than 10 percent below its 10-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Before March, the gauge of U.S. equity trader anxiety hadn’t fallen that much since July 2013, data compiled by Sundial Capital Research Inc. show.
Blackstone(BX) Goes on Biggest Real Estate Spree Since Boom. Blackstone Group LP cemented its position as the world’s biggest private-equity investor in real estate with a global buying spree that includes General Electric Co. assets and a California-based shopping-center owner. The agreement to buy GE real estate assets valued at $23 billion in a joint deal with Wells Fargo & Co. is the largest real estate transaction since the financial crisis and among the biggest for New York-based Blackstone, whose purchases include the record $39 billion acquisition of Equity Office Properties Trust in 2007 and the $26 billion takeover of Hilton Worldwide Inc. the same year.
U.S. States Aren't Prepared for the Next Fiscal Shock. U.S. states, still grappling with the lingering effects of the longest recession since the 1930s, are even more vulnerable to another fiscal shock. The governments have a little more than half the reserves they’d stashed away before the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009, according to a report last month by Pew Charitable Trusts. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Arkansas have saved the least.
Fed’s Lacker Favors June Liftoff Even as Recent Data Weak. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he continues to favor a first interest rate increase in June because recent soft readings on the economy will probably prove temporary. “Readings on some indicators have been unexpectedly weak in recent weeks, some of which may be attributable to unseasonably adverse weather,” Lacker, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in Sarasota, Florida, on Friday. “It’s too soon say how much, however, and the more prudent approach is to look through very short-term fluctuations.” “I expect that, unless incoming economic reports diverge substantially from projections, the case for raising rates will remain strong at the June meeting,” Lacker said to an event hosted by the Global Interdependence Center and the Financial Planning Association of the Suncoast. The comments were similar to a speech he gave on March 31.

Wall Street Journal:

Liberal Democrats Try to Push Hillary Clinton Left. Some Democrats think Hillary Clinton isn’t liberal enough, posing a challenge to her as she prepares for a presidential campaign.

MarketWatch.com:

CNBC:

Obamacare sticks some enrollees with unexpected bill.

ZeroHedge:

Business Insider:

NY Times:

China Is Said to Use Powerful New Weapon to Censor Internet. Late last month, China began flooding American websites with a barrage of Internet traffic in an apparent effort to take out services that allow China’s Internet users to view websites otherwise blocked in the country. Initial security reports suggested that China had crippled the services by exploiting its own Internet filter — known as the Great Firewall — to redirect overwhelming amounts of traffic to its targets. Now, researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Toronto say China did not use the Great Firewall after all, but rather a powerful new weapon that they are calling the Great Cannon.

Financial Times:

QE may not have been worth the costs. Even when the limits of these policies become evident, the solution appears more of the same rather than calls for a different approach. A new report from Swiss Re is changing that. The report calculates that US savers alone have lost $470bn in interest rate income — and that is net of lower debt costs. Central bank policies involve “a whole host of unintended consequences; asset price bubbles, an impaired credit intermediation process and increasing economic inequality are just a few,” the report warns.

The Independent:

Yazidi sex slaves 'gang-raped in public' by Isis fighters, harrowing accounts reveal. Yazidi women released by Isis this week were gang-raped in public by fighters and tortured by their captors, according to distressing accounts of their ordeals. Hundreds of women and children were abducted from the town of Sinjar, in northern Iraq, and held hostage by Isis for over eight months. Some were sold to fighters as sex slaves or given as ‘prizes’. Many were beaten and forced to convert to Islam. "If you come and sit with the girls you will find different stories from girl to girl. A lot of them have been sold to Isis fighters, they have been raped in [...] public, and by more than two or three people at a time," he told the International Business Times. "They were tortured, beaten and subject to any type of violence."

CCTV:

Li Says China's Economy Faces Increasing Downward Pressure. Premier Li Keqiang says China's northeastern region faces bigger economic downward pressure than nationwide, citing comments made by Li at a seminar.