Friday, April 24, 2015

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,117.69 +1.75%
  • DJIA 18,080.14 +1.42%
  • NASDAQ 5,092.08 +3.25%
  • Russell 2000 1,2567.54 +1.25%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 35.64 +1.16% 
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.78 -.12% 
  • Wilshire 5000 22,183.78 +1.65%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,021.76 +2.38%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,033.11 +.96%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 504.47 +.06%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 138.93 +.91%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,050.29 +2.99%
  • Transports 8,880.17 +2.69%
  • Utilities 597.81 +2.49%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 120.27 +3.28%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.67 +2.75%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,227.46 -.09%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 991.75 -.31%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 242,710 +1.20%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 214 +34
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.8 +13.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 323,092 +14.51%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,723,025 -2.92%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -32.14%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.84 +18.71%
  • ISE Sentiment 95.0 +11.76%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -11.5%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.29 -11.52%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.43 +1.92%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.31 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.95 +.61%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,730.05 -.05%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.588 Trillion -.27%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.700 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 31.5 -1.9%
  • AAII % Bears 23.2 +1.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 224.05 +.05%
  • Crude Oil 57.15 +1.79%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 200.79 +3.67%
  • Natural Gas 2.53 -4.17%
  • Heating Oil 192.83 +1.94%
  • Gold 1,175.0 -2.35%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 174.16 -.27%
  • Copper 274.80 -1.79%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 230.0 USD/Ton+.88%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 57.81 USD/Ton +13.51%
  • Lumber 258.50 +5.25%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,112.41 -.60%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.7% +70.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.5070 +5.75%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.07 +.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.7 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.50 -32.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.50 -2.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29
  • US Dollar Index 96.92 -.54%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.12 +.68%
  • Yield Curve 140.0 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.91% +4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.456 Trillion +.10%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.14 -5.99%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 173.0 -.77%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 26.11 -1.66%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.72 -1.60%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 324.46 -3.40%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.76 +3.12%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 351.18 -.68%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 350.64 -3.50%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 117.29 +.66%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90% +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 +3.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.77 -1.52%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,068.0 +1.02%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.47 -2.91%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 293.53 -3.07%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.50-2.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $2.980 Trillion -2.02%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.50 -.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 284,500 +1,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.65% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 458.40 +2.28%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.4 -1.2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.0% -10 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.51/gallon +.08/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 599.0 +.33%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 926.83 -2.60%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,016 +3.53%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value +.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +14.3%
  • Software +6.8%
  • Internet +6.2%
  • Airlines +5.2%
  • Restaurants +5.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Education -.6% 
  • Gold & Silver -1.4%
  • 3D Printing -3.6%
  • Homebuilders -4.0%
  • Coal -4.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)
  • AST, ECHO, CAMP, LJPC, ARRS, ADPT, MDSO, SKX, VASC, AEC, FTNT, CE, OCR, RMBS, VSI, TTS, HAS, IMPR, DLB, UTEK, CAKE and SCHL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)
  • TWC, CMG, NOW, HOG, TRN, DHI, PKG, CREE, PHM, SANM, PRO, GLF, ADTN, SMCI, ICON, FTK, NVIV and FARO
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Euro Bounce, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.37 -.88%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.95 -.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.99 +.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.84 -.10%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -28.80%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -23.53%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -16.23% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.47 +.01%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,067.0 -.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.48 +1.28%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.11 +1.22%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.21 +.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.89 -.12%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 117.29 +.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.75 +.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 140.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.81/Metric Tonne +5.45%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.70 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.50 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.4 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
  • EU Frustration Mounts as Greeks Try to Bypass Aid Process. (video) Euro-area finance ministers voiced their frustration with Greece after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tried to bypass their veto on financial aid with an appeal to Angela Merkel. With Greece running out of money and stalling over commitments to reform, euro-zone finance chiefs meeting in Riga, Latvia, Friday said the country’s authorities still haven’t shown sufficient progress on plans to revamp the economy to justify a loan payout. “I demand very urgently that we get results on the table,” Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling said before sitting down for talks. “If you follow the media of the past days you hear time and again that ‘Tsipras says’ and ‘Tsipras thinks’, so apparently this has been moved to leaders’ level.”
  • Merkel Calls for Calm as Greek Talks Descend Into Name-Calling. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for calm after a euro-area finance ministers’ meeting on Greece descended into acrimony and name-calling. Finance chiefs meeting in Riga, Latvia, on Friday, let loose at Yanis Varoufakis, their Greek counterpart, as they ruled out making a partial aid payment in exchange for a narrower program of reforms. “It’s important that we show understanding for each other,” Merkel told a crowd at a campaign event in Bremerhaven, Germany. While all sides are working toward a deal, “we don’t know if this will work out,” she said.
  • Ukraine’s President Says Martial Law Ready If Troops Attacked. President Petro Poroshenko said he’s ready to place Ukraine under martial law if his army is attacked in the embattled eastern part of the country. “If Ukrainian troops are attacked, we can do everything to introduce martial law,” Poroshenko said in an interview with the Ukraina television channel on Friday. “I will submit to parliament a corresponding bill and the country will very quickly move to a military footing.” 
  • China to Crack Down on Stock Manipulation as Market Soars. China’s securities regulator started a campaign to crack down on stock-market manipulation and insider trading, the latest effort to reduce risks as an equities boom lures a record number of novice investors. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will target trading by brokerage employees using non-public information, and market manipulation, including of futures prices, the CSRC said in a Friday statement on its website. The regulator also cited insider trading in over-the-counter markets and accounting fraud in mergers and acquisition. 
  • Pimco’s Kiesel Sees Bubble in $3 Trillion of Negative-Yield Debt. Forget high-yield bonds. The real froth in markets can be found in the swelling pool of negative-yielding government debt from Europe to Japan. That’s according to Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co., who’s increasingly wary of investors paying governments from Spain to Switzerland to lend to them. 
  • European Stocks Extend Weekly Advance as HSBC, Miners Climb. European stocks rebounded, extending weekly gains, as HSBC Holdings Plc led banks higher and companies including Renault SA rose on sales and earnings releases. HSBC climbed 2.9 percent after saying that it has started a review into moving its headquarters from the U.K. Renault added 3.7 percent after reporting quarterly sales rose 14 percent. Glencore Plc, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group led commodity producers to the biggest gain of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as iron ore advanced into a bull market. AstraZeneca Plc declined 1.7 percent after posting lower first-quarter earnings. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.3 percent to 408.42 at the close of trading, for a weekly gain of 1.2 percent.
  • Saudi Arabia Has a Solution to the Global Oil Glut Problem. Saudi Arabia has a response to the global surplus of oil: Raise output to near-record levels and then pump even more. The world’s biggest oil exporter, having abandoned last year its role of keeping global markets in balance, now has incentive to maximize output and undermine rival producers by using its reserve capacity, according to Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG. Just meeting its own domestic demand this summer will require a lot more fuel, others estimate.
  • Some of the flash crash story just makes no sense. The first question that arises from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's case against Navinder Singh Sarao is: Why did it take them five years to bring it? A guy living with his parents next to London's Heathrow Airport enters a lot of big, phony orders to sell U.S. stock market futures; the market promptly collapses on May 6, 2010; it takes five years for the army of U.S. financial regulators to work out that there might be some connection between the two events. It makes no sense.
  • Retail Stocks Flash Bearish Signal on Oil, U.S. Spending Pause. Retail stocks are trailing the broader market as the plunge in oil prices shows signs of coming to an end. The SPDR Standard & Poor’s Retail Exchange-Traded Fund -- made up of more than 100 companies including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. -- has fallen 0.4 percentage point since April 2, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has risen 2.3 percentage points -- see chart. That follows a 10-month rally when the retail group outpaced the benchmark fund by 12 percentage points.
ZeroHedge:
Reuters:
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.41%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -3.62% 2) Semis -2.22% 3) Oil Service -1.81%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • AERI, SPNC, AWAY, UIS, EMES, PRGO, INFY, XRX, BGG, HWAY, DV, UBNT, NTGR, SCHL, TRN, NVDQ, BJRI, BIIB, CVTI, SSD, NLSN, CHTR, HBI, SRCL, VRSN, PII, RMBS, PRLB, NCR, EFII, RHI, SYA, ETH, KN, CAMP, ARRS, HCLP, HBI, FRGI, SYNA, MTSI, MPWR, MXIM, HZO, OFG, DDD, XRX, RMD, CVTI and NTGR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PII 2) XLB 3) MBI 4) ALTR 5) GPS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BBY 2) MTW 3) EMES 4) UBNT 5) LL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.22%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Internet +3.49% 2) Steel +2.99% 3) Software +2.95%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GIMO, EHTH, AMZN, TBI, ACTG, DNKN, HUBG, ALGN, CPHD, JNPR, MSFT, ASPS, BGS, VLTC, AAN, HA, NEM, QLIK, MMSI, SBUX and MAT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NUAN 2) SVU 3) VDSI 4) DNKN 5) DTV
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MAT 2) JNPR 3) AMZN 4) MSFT 5) DPZ
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: