Monday, November 23, 2015

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Brussels Extends Lockdown as U.S. Issues Terror Alert. Authorities in Brussels extended the city’s highest-level terror alert into next week as they maintained their warning Islamic State terrorists plan to attack highly populated areas like shopping malls and public transport systems. The city’s schools and subway will be closed for one more day before gradually reopening on Wednesday, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel told a press conference late Monday in Brussels. Belgium-born Salah Abdeslam, one of two brothers believed to have been involved in the Nov. 13 Paris assaults that killed 130, is still at large. “Shopping centers, streets, public transport” are all potential targets, Michel said. The government is doing “everything in our power to keep the situation under control” and will review things each day. He warned the threat he had told the Belgian people about over the weekend had not diminished. 
  • Paris Suffers Slump in Christmas Bookings After Terror Attacks. Passenger bookings for flights arriving in Paris during the Christmas period are down 13 percent on last year after the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks, with visits from the U.S, Spain, Japan and Germany worst affected, according to a study based on figures from 200,000 travel agencies. While a 25 percent jump in cancellations the week after the tragedy has now eased, new bookings remain “dramatically below” last year’s level, travel-data specialist ForwardKeys said, citing reservation numbers through Nov. 20. “The booking situation for arrivals during the Christmas holidays has become worrisome,” ForwardKeys Chief Executive Officer Olivier Jaeger said in an interview, citing figures for arrivals in the Dec. 25 to Dec. 31 period. “Paris will rebound. The question is, when will that start?
  • Bank of America: The 'Great Divorce' Between the World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency and Rates Markets in 2016. The "marriage of convenience" is over. "On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. The question is, given the semi USD/RMB peg and China's increasing open capital account (which come at the expense of China's monetary independence), whether China can live with higher U.S. interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. We are skeptical. This is why we think the USD/RMB peg, a marriage of convenience that has been the anchor for the global growth model for the better part of the last 15 years, is headed for a divorce, and we think the RMB devaluation on Aug. 11 was a first small step in this direction."
  • Chinese Stocks Drop for Second Day as Commodity Shares Slump. Chinese stocks fell for a second day, dragged down by metal producers and industrial companies. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.8 percent to 3,582.90 at 9:57 a.m., with trading volumes 22 percent below the 30-day average for this time of day. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. declined to a three-week low and Jiangxi Copper Co. retreated 2 percent. Copper fell below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time in six years and nickel touched the lowest in more than a decade. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 0.8 percent in Hong Kong. 
  • Asia Stocks Drop as Tumbling Commodity Prices Weigh on Producers. Asian stocks fell as tumbling commodity prices dragged raw-materials shares lower, with BHP Billiton Ltd. on course to close at the lowest since 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.16 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japanese markets opened after a holiday. Material shares led losses among the regional measure’s 10 industry groups.
  • OPEC Seen Holding the Line as $40 Oil Looms Over Vienna Meeting. It’ll take more than $40 crude to make OPEC change its mind, analysts said before the group’s Dec. 4 meeting in Vienna. In the year since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries chose to defend its market share, and let prices sink, a 44 percent plunge in crude has slashed members’ revenues by almost half a trillion dollars. Undeterred, the group will press on with its strategy to batter rival producers when ministers meet next week, according to 30 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • Industrial Metals Trade Near Multi-Year Lows on Supply Glut. Industrial metals traded near multi-year lows amid a supply surplus and a strong dollar. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, reached a 10-year low in Sydney. Prices have declined 28 percent this year, the worst annual drop since the global financial crisis, amid the slowest growth in a quarter of a century in China, the world’s biggest consumer, and concern that mining companies are not willing to cut production enough. The U.S. currency is trading near the highest level since at least 2005, making commodities more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Aluminum rose 0.7 percent, while copper, nickel and zinc fell at least 0.3 percent.
  • Fed Rate Odds Rise to 74% in Bond Market as Pimco Sees Liftoff. The odds the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December climbed to 74 percent, and Pacific Investment Management Co. says a move is likely. The probability the central bank will act at its Dec. 15-16 session increased from less than 30 percent as recently as mid-October, futures contracts show.
Wall Street Journal:
Breaking News:
Fox News:
  • State Department issues worldwide travel alert. (video) The State Department issued a worldwide travel alert Monday over possible risks due to increased terrorism threats. The alert comes amid information that ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, and other terrorist groups continue to plan attacks in multiple regions by employing a “wide variety of tactics,” according to the State Department.
CNBC: 
  • Insiders sending an ominous market signal. (video) The recent jump in stock prices has one important group of disbelievers. Corporate insiders have been dumping shares at the highest pace in 4½ years, according to market data firm TrimTabs. The selling averaged $450 million a day in November, the highest since May 2011.
Zero Hedge: 
Reuters: 
  • Texas student arrested over clock seeks $15 million. The family of a Texas Muslim teenager arrested for bringing a homemade clock that was mistaken for a bomb to school demanded $15 million in damages and an apology from the city of Irving and its schools to avoid a lawsuit, lawyers said on Monday. The Mohamed family is asking for $10 million from the city and $5 million from the school district or they will file civil lawsuits within 60 days, the letter said
  • Latam currencies weaken on China.
  • 4 nations risk breaking EU budget rules in 2016 - euro zone finmins warn. Euro zone finance ministers warned Italy, Spain, Austria and Lithuania on Monday against breaking EU fiscal rules with their draft budgets for 2016, endorsing an assessment last week by the EU executive.
  • New York prepares for Thanksgiving parade as Islamic State threat looms. Millions of New Yorkers and tourists are expected to line the streets on Thursday for the parade, more than a week after Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, released a video showing images of New York juxtaposed with a scene depicting a suicide bomber preparing for an attack.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.25 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.76 +.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
  • (AMWD)/.79
  • (ADI)/.83
  • (BURL)/.23
  • (CPB)/.76
  • (CHS)/.20
  • (DLTR)/.52
  • (DSW)/.44
  • (EV)/.59
  • (FRED)/.10
  • (FRO)/.07
  • (SIG)/.39
  • (TIF)/.75
  • (TECD)/1.39
  • (PDCO)/.59
  • (HRL)/.68
  • (AVAV)/.09
  • (GES)/.11
  • (HPQ)/.97
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Advance Goods Trade Deficit for October is estimated at -$60.9B versus -$58.63B in September.
  • 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +1.5% prior estimate.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +3.2% prior estimate.
  • 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.2% prior estimate. 
  • 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.3% prior estimate.   
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.11% gain in August.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 99.5 versus 97.6 in October.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November is estimated to rise to 1.0 versus -1.0 in October. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO report, 2Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports and the (JEC) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Terrorism Fears, Fed Rate Hike Concerns, Emerging Markets Currnecy Worries, Metals & Mining/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.06 +3.81%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136. 41 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.18 -.88%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.04 +1.63%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 +17.58%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +9.57%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 -3.19
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.80 +.26%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,335.0 +2.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.63 -.48%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.03 +.18%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.55 -.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 3112.99 +.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.24 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -50.75 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.70 -.59%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 133.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $44.75/Metric Tonne -.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.8 -3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.80 +8.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.50 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 2.67 n/a
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Brussels Extends Lockdown as Paris Terror Suspect Eludes Police. (video) The Belgian government extended its lockdown for Brussels into a fourth day, saying terrorists were planning attacks on shopping malls and public transport, as Belgian police continued their hunt for a key suspect in the Paris terror assaults. Brussels will stay on its highest state of alert on Tuesday with schools and the subway network remaining closed for another day because of a continued “serious and imminent” threat, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel told a press conference late Monday in Brussels. “We are still confronted by the same type of threat as I laid out yesterday,” Michel said. “The potential targets remain the same.”
  • Paris Terror Attacks Act as Drag on French Hotels, Restaurants. Growth in France’s services sector slowed this month, with hotels and restaurants reporting that the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks in Paris had a negative impact on business. An index of activity slipped to 51.3 -- the lowest in three months -- from 52.7 in October, Markit Economics in London said in a monthly report published on Monday. The survey was conducted from Nov. 12 to Nov. 20, with about 60 percent of responses received after the attacks, which killed 129 people and injured another 352. “While the longer-term economic impact following the attacks remains uncertain, PMI data suggest that GDP is on course to post another modest expansion” this quarter, said Jack Kennedy, an economist at Markit.
  • EU Said to Be Set to Extend Russian Sanctions for Six Months. European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said. Lack of progress in implementing this year’s Ukrainian peace accord means the trading bloc has no choice but to prolong the measures, diplomats from pro- and anti-sanctions nations said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential. The EU’s 28 leaders are set to discuss the issue at a Dec. 17-18 summit, German Foreign Ministry chief spokesman Martin Schaefer told reporters in Berlin on Monday.
  • Sub-zero debt increases to $2 trillion in euro region on Draghi. Investor expectations of expanded monetary easing from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi have pushed the amount of euro-area government securities that yield below zero to more than $2 trillion. Bonds across the region climbed last week when Draghi said the institution will do what’s necessary to rapidly accelerate inflation. The statement recalled the language of his 2012 pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro and it solidified investor bets on further stimulus at the ECB’s Dec. 3 meeting. While 10-year bonds fell Monday, the two-year note yields of Germany, Austria and the Netherlands all dropped to records.
  • Traffic jam. Chinese Carmakers Run Out of Road. Booming Chinese car sales look to have hit a speed hump. The period of exponential growth is over, according to executives at last week's Guangzhou Auto Show. Slower growth rates are a ``new normal'' for the country, according to IHS Automotive. Vehicle sales will expand at a 3 percent pace this year, compared with a 36 percent average over the previous decade. 
  • Ruble Falls Most in Emerging Markets as Oil Reversal Short Lived. The ruble fell the most among emerging markets as Russia and the U.S. differed on goals in Syria and a rebound in crude prices was short-lived. Russia’s currency weakened 1.2 percent to 65.5280 against the dollar as of 5:50 p.m. in Moscow, the biggest decline among 24 peers tracked by Bloomberg. Oil prices failed to hold gains after Saudi Arabia said it’s ready to work with producers to stabilize prices.
  • Chinese Stocks Fall on Restart of IPOs as Guotai Junan Slumps. Chinese stocks fell as Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd. plunged in Hong Kong after the brokerage said it can’t contact its chairman, while technology companies slumped in Shanghai as the securities regulator gave the green light to initial public offerings following a five-month freeze. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 0.7 percent to 10,229.43 at the close. Guotai Junan, one of China’s biggest securities firms, slid 12 percent after it said it failed to reach Yim Fung since last week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent as software companies slumped amid speculation investors are selling the priciest stocks to raise funds for new share offerings.
  • European Stocks Decline as Commodity, Leisure Companies Retreat. Concerns over the strength of the global economy took over once again, dragging European stocks down from a three-month high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.4 percent at the close of trading in London, paring losses of as much as 0.9 percent. Miners fell with metals as the prospect of a U.S. rate increase sent the dollar higher.
  • Commodities Feel the Pain of Long-Term Deflation. (video)
  • Saudi Arabia Edges Out Russia in China Oil Sales as OPEC Digs In. Saudi Arabia reclaimed its position from Russia as the largest crude supplier to China as OPEC members extended their global fight for market share. The world’s biggest oil exporter sold 3.99 million metric tons to China in October, 0.8 percent more than in September, data from the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs showed on Monday. Angola, another member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, also surpassed Russia in shipping crude to the Asian nation.
  • Deepening Metals Rout Sends Copper Below $4,500 as Nickel Slumps. Copper fell below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time in six years and nickel touched the lowest in more than a decade on concern producers aren’t doing enough to trim a glut of metal. The retreat in commodities helped send a gauge of mining companies to near the lowest in almost seven years. The London Metal Exchange’s index of six main contracts has slumped 27 percent this year, the most since the global financial crisis in 2008, as a slowdown in top user China cut demand. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon raise U.S. interest rates have boosted the dollar and made metals more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. At the same time, that’s lowering production costs of companies outside the U.S. and encouraging them to maintain output, according to T-Commodity, a Milan-based consultancy. “Chinese demand is still weak,” Gianclaudio Torlizzi, a partner at T-Commodity, said by phone. “The bearish action is to force the local producers to cut production. What’s making people negative is the fact that the production costs of many metals has been holding pretty well.” Copper for delivery in three months fell 2.3 percent to $4,474 a ton at 4:05 p.m. on the LME, after falling to $4,443.50, the lowest since May 2009. Copper futures also dropped on the Comex in New York. Nickel slid as much as 6.4 percent to $8,175 a ton on the LME, the lowest since 2003. Zinc lost as much as 4.3 percent, reversing its advance on Friday after Chinese smelters announced they planned to cut production next year.  
  • The Analyst Who Expects a 25% Market Correction in 2016. (video)
  • Shrinking Takeover Premiums Show Bearish Case in U.S. Stocks. The biggest wave of takeovers ever to sweep the U.S. is failing to ease investors’ anxieties about rising stock valuations. While a booming market for mergers and acquisitions is often viewed as good for equities, the impact may be diminishing. Caution can be seen in how much the stocks of takeover targets rise the day after deals are announced. In 2015, the average increase is 16 percent, the smallest gain for any year since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on deals of at least $200 million. Share price reactions are closely tied with the premium companies are willing to offer, which is also at its lowest since 2007.
Breaking News:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
  • Paris terror suspect slips Brussels dragnet as trail goes cold. (video) The trail of the world's most-wanted man was getting colder Monday after a flurry of raids in Brussels and an international dragnet led to nearly two dozen arrests and even more rumors, but no sign of Salah Abdeslam. The baby-faced 26-year-old jihadist, who served as wheel man in the Nov. 13 Paris attacks that killed 130, was believed to be hiding in his native Brussels as recently as Sunday, when Belgium's beleaguered law enforcement authorities mounted raids throughout the city. But despite reports that were later discounted that Abdeslam had slipped through a police dragnet for the second time in 10 days and was seen speeding toward Germany, police acknowledged that they don't know where he is.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • GameStop(GME) revenue misses as gamers pause for new games, deals. GameStop Corp, the world's largest retailer of video games and related products, reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit due to a fall in sales of new gaming software and hardware. The company's shares fell as much as 16 percent to $33 in early trading on Monday. Bartel said demand for "Call of Duty: Black Ops III" and "Fallout 4" was strong, while sales of "Star Wars: Battlefront", which released on Nov. 17, were weaker than the company's expectations. Shares of Electronic Arts Inc, the company behind "Star Wars: Battlefront" were down 4.5 percent at $69.13.
Financial Times: 
  • Global debt defaults near milestone. Global debt markets are on the cusp of an unwelcome development with the number of companies defaulting on their obligations set to reach the century mark, driven largely by struggling US shale gas providers. Currently, 99 global companies have defaulted since the year began, the second greatest tally in more than a decade and only exceeded by the financial crisis which saw 222 defaults in 2009, according to Standard & Poor’s. US companies account for 62 of this year’s defaults.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 
  • Large-Cap Value +.08%
Sector Underperformers: 
  • 1) Coal -1.64% 2) Steel -1.61% 3) Road & Rail -1.32%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • GME, PARR, TXTR, PAM, DBD, AGN, PFE, EA, EDN, GGAL, BFR, EDN, GGAL, BFR, BMA, VRX, CAVM,YPF, HONR, ADI, CMTL, NGVC, DEO, CS, FIT, IRS and CLVS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 
  • 1) GME 2) ADI 3) TIF 4) XRT 5) FCX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 
  • 1) VIA/B 2) CAVM 3) CXTR 4) NSC 5) CLVS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.56%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Hospitals +2.69% 2) Foods +1.06% 3) Restaurants +1.03%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • KBIO, UVE, TSN, CLDX, SRPT, MNK and PTCT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) BURL 2) GME 3) KR 4) TSN 5)PAA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) PNRA 2) K 3) ANF 4) BWLD 5) WSH
Charts: 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: