Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 -.25 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.52 -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures +.%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
9:45 am EST

• The ISM New York for March is estimated to rise to 54.1 versus 53.6 in February.

10:00 am EST

• Labor Market Conditions Index for March.
• Factory Orders for February are estimated to fall -1.8% versus a +1.6% gain in January.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for February are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.2% decline in January.   

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Eurozone PPI report and the Reserve Bank of Australia Decision could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, Fed rate-hike fears, global growth concerns, commodity weakness, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%

• DJIA 17,792.75 +1.58%

• NASDAQ 4,914.54 +2.96%

• Russell 2000 1,117.68 +3.53%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.63 +.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 98.39 +3.13% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,303.95 +2.02%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.33 +2.43%

• Russell 1000 Value 977.52 +1.32%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 550.37 +2.63%

• Solactive US Cyclical 130.65 +1.46%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,065.44 +2.63%

• Transports 7,887.77 -.48%

• Utilities 671.04 +1.64%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 76.94 -2.47%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 33.91 +1.69%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,120.47 +.66%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,013.23 -.10%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 239.057 +1.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 55 +439

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 305,511 -.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,734,511 +1.69%

• Total Put/Call .95 -8.65%

• OEX Put/Call 1.29 -84.64%

• ISE Sentiment 100.0 +25.0%

• NYSE Arms .81 -3.57%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -11.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.97 -5.17%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.88 -2.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.63 -1.11%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,134.78 +.35%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.765 Trillion +.5%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.035 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.2 -19.5%

• AAII % Bears 25.8 +8.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 168.03 -2.41%

• Crude Oil 36.79 -7.07%

• Reformulated Gasoline 140.16 -6.40%

• Natural Gas 1.96 +8.07%

• Heating Oil 113.17 -5.68%

• Gold 1,223.50 +.56%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 142.76 +.18%

• Copper 216.30 -3.35%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 170.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 54.80 USD/Ton -2.79%

• Lumber 300.70 +.97%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,062.45 -1.68%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.7% +140.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1049 +7.74%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.01 -.01%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +6.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +10.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +15.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 4/27

• US Dollar Index 94.62 -1.58%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,508.09 +1.57%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.89 +.71%

• Yield Curve 105.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% -13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.443 Trillion -.25%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.99 +1.50%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 344.0 -.74%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.98 -4.77%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 59.06 +1.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 148.38 -1.85%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.78 -.20%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 999.79 +3.79% 

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 289.69 -2.16%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 126.82 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% +6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 40.50 +7.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.22 -7.04%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,283.0 -14.55%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.77 -3.87%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 289.16 -2.80%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 165.0 -5.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.175 Trillion +1.37%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,100.70 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,250 +3,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.71% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 460.50 -1.01%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.8 -.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.90% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.06/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 450.0 +12.21%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 646.06 -1.99%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 57.50 +64.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 237,923 -4.09%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +4.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +5.3%

• Tobacco +4.4%

• Telecom +3.9%

• Computer Services +3.9%

• Restaurants +3.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -.2% 

• Energy -1.5%

• Road & Rail -1.8%

• Oil Service -2.8%

• Oil Tankers -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• ALDR, ACAD, CSII, SCLN, SAIC, SFBC, CNL, SONC, PGEM, BANC, MDVN, SYNT, WBMD, ABMD, GLPI and WMS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• NPBC, PJT, ROVI, SPKE, PBYI and CONN

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 25.0% of Issues Advancing, 72.2% Declining
• 89 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 48.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0%
• Vix 14.8 +6.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.24 +8.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.91 +57.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• `Trade of a Decade'? It Doesn't Bode Well for Emerging Markets. Behind the best gains for emerging markets since 2009, there are some ominous signs that the rally is about to hit a wall. The 13 percent surge in stocks last month was accompanied by the lowest trading volume for five years in the markets with the biggest advances and the weakest company profits for six. In the foreign-exchange market, currencies are mirroring moves in oil prices by the most since 2012, suggesting vulnerability to any renewed weakness in commodities. It all underscores the fragility of a rebound driven by $37 billion of inflows from investors in March, more than in any month since June 2014. Bears including Barclays Plc. and UBS AG say it’s at odds with falling exports and contracting manufacturing in developing economies, while the forces behind the rally -- a dovish Federal Reserve, stability in China’s economy and rises in oil prices -- are unlikely to persist. “The macro picture for emerging markets hasn’t really changed much since January,” said Yerlan Syzdykov, a London-based emerging-market bond manager at Pioneer Investment Management Ltd., whose fund beat 98 percent of its peers over the past three years. “The economic slowdown in emerging markets will continue until 2018.”
• Singapore Home Prices Have Longest Slide in Almost Two Decades. Singapore home prices dropped for a tenth quarter, posting the longest losing streak in almost two decades, as tighter mortgage curbs cooled demand in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. An index tracking private residential prices fell 0.7 percent in the three months ended March 31 from the previous quarter, matching the longest losing run since 1998, according to preliminary data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Friday. The government has signaled it is reluctant to lift property cooling measures it began introducing in 2009, for fear it will lead to overheating in the market once again. The residential curbs have included a cap on debt repayment costs at 60 percent of a borrower’s monthly income and higher stamp duties on home purchases, after low interest rates and demand from foreign buyers raised concerns prices had risen too far too fast.
• Corporate Sentiment in Japan Slumps to Near Three-Year Low. Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated to the lowest level since mid-2013 as a stronger yen posed risks to company profits, undermining efforts to spur recovery in the world’s third-largest economy. The Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers stood at 6 in March, the Bank of Japan said Friday, declining from 12 three months ago. A positive number means there are more optimists than pessimists among manufacturers. Economists had forecast 8 in a Bloomberg survey. The drop in sentiment from large employers suggests business investment and wage growth will remain tepid, underscoring the challenges faced by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Prime Minister Shinzo. Abe is front-loading budget spending while Kuroda has added a negative rate to his monetary policy arsenal. 
• Asian Stocks Sink With Oil as Aussie, Copper Rally on China Data. Asian stocks slid as the fresh quarter got under way, with Japanese equities leading losses amid a slump in corporate sentiment. Commodity currencies and copper rose after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing expanded for the first time since July. After recording their best month since October, Asian shares retreated Friday amid losses of more than 1 percent for stock gauges in Japan and Australia. The yen resumed gains as the greenback extended declines after its worst monthly performance since 2010. The Australian and New Zealand currencies strengthened, while the Malaysian ringgit rose for a fifth day. Crude fell back toward $38 a barrel on glut concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.3 percent as of 10:35 a.m. Tokyo time, falling for the first time in three days. The gauge added 8.2 percent in March, paring back its quarterly loss to 2.3 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Moves to Give Iran Limited Access to Dollars. Proposal on sanctions relief comes amid rising criticism from Tehran. The Obama administration is preparing to give Iran limited access to U.S. dollars as part of looser sanctions on Tehran, according to congressional staff members and a former American official briefed on the plans.
• Trump’s Mess Has Become His Message. His supporters are getting embarrassed by his sheer dumb grossness.

Fox News:

• Fox Business Network Poll: Cruz leads in Wisconsin. (video) Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump in the Republican nomination contest in Wisconsin, according to a Fox Business Network Poll released Thursday. Cruz garners 42 percent among Wisconsin likely GOP primary voters, while Trump receives 32 percent.  John Kasich comes in third with 19 percent. Among just those who say they will “definitely” vote, Cruz’s lead over Trump widens to 46-33 percent, and Kasich gets 16 percent. There is a big gender gap.  Women back Cruz over Trump by a 19-point margin (46-27 percent).  The two candidates are much closer among men:  Cruz gets 40 percent to Trump’s 35 percent. Cruz’s advantage over the real estate mogul also comes from self-described “very” conservative voters, who give him a 36-point lead (61 percent Cruz vs. 25 percent Trump). 
• 'One shot at the queen': FBI, AG intensify focus on Clinton email probe. (video) As the FBI enters the final phases of its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of an unauthorized email server for government business, Attorney General Loretta Lynch and FBI Director James Comey are meeting frequently to discuss the progress and handling of the highly sensitive case, a source told Fox News. Among the issues discussed in the meetings, which have been taking place several times per week, are who will be interviewed and in what order, according to an intelligence source close to the ongoing case. Emails released by the State Department have already shown Clinton and several key aides used the personal, unsecured network to send more than 1,000 messages which have been deemed classified. 

Zero Hedge:

• AsiaPac Data Deluge: China Good, South Korea Bad, Japan Ugly. (graph) 
• 2016: The End Of The Global Debt Super Cycle. (graph)
• Hong Kong Retail Sales Crash Most Since 1999 As Stocks Soar 14%. (graph)
• Worst Case Scenario: 73% Down From Here. (graph)
• Olympics In Doubt As Brazil Sports Minister Quits, Rio Governor Says "This Is The Worst Situation I've Ever Seen".
• Maybe You're Confused By The Fed – But Wall Street Isn't.
• China Unveils 'Trumpian' Tariffs On All Foreign Goods.
• The Reason Anbang Pulled The Starwood Offer: It Couldn't Prove It Has The Funds.
• Something Did Break After All: Repo Rate Soars Most Since September 2008. (graph)
• Fed Levitation & The Looming Liquidity Trap.
• Copper Continues To Crumble Amid Record China Inventories.
• For Canada's Banks This Is "The Next Shoe To Drop", And Why It Will Drop This Spring. (graph)
• Q1 2016: Gold Glows Amid The Greatest Stock Market Comeback In The History Of Investing. (graph)

Business Insider:

• China's manufacturing sector bounces back.
• Trump's abortion comments are giving Democrats plenty of ammunition for November.
• Corporate profit margins might've just put in a generational peak. (graph)
• Railroad stocks are getting crushed by the collapse in oil and coal prices.
• JOHN MAULDIN: The next recession will blow out the US budget.

21st Century Business Herald:

• Beijing Resumes Lands Sale Requirement to Curb Home Prices. Beijing imposed land sale requirements on a new sale of plots, citing bidding documnets posted on Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resource's website.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.25 -2.75 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.5 +3.25 basis points. 
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.62 -.06%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.13%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (BBRY)/-.10

Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 205K versus 242K in February.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 4.9% versus 4.9% in February.
• Average Hourly Earnings for March is estimated to rise by +.2% versus a -.1% decline in February.       

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 50.9 versus 49.5 in February.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 44.0 versus 38.5 in February.
• Construction Spending for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.5% gain in January.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 90.5 versus 90.0 in February.    

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 17.5M versus 17.43M in February.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, UK Manufacturing PMI report and the (F) March sales conference call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.