Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 +4.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.25 +1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.95 -.06%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.59%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.77%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AGN)/4.34
• (BDX)/3.06
• (DF)/-.17
• (DISCA)/.99
• (DUK)/.98
• (EMR)/.94
• (ENR)/.46
• (EXPD)/.81
• (JLL)/2.33
• (MOS)/.29
• (PBI)/.17
• (REGN)/5.42
• (SAGE)/-3.35
• (ZTS)/.82

After the Close:

• (ANDE)/.62
• (HTZ)/.50
• (MTCH)/.43
• (MCHP)/1.38
• (PZZA)/.30
• (DIS)/1.74
• (WYNN)/1.39

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to rise to 7326 versus 7323 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report, $38B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, UBS Financial Services Conference, Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Conference, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Canaccord Growth Conference and the (ORLY) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +3.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 +4.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.27 -.28%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.93%.
• S&P 500 futures -.72%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.94%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CARS)/.43
• (DO)/-.88
• (JEC)/1.24
• (L)/.75
• (SOHU)/-1.15

After the Close:

• (CAR)/.73
• (CZR)/-.05
• (KLAC)/1.75
• (MAR)/1.56
• (SHAK)/.23
• (TTWO)/.04
• (THC)/.44

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 55.1 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services/Manufacturing PMI reports and the Commerce Dept. Hearing for $21B in EU tariffs could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, technical selling and China trade deal concerns offset earnings optimism, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 +4.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.75 +5.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.67 -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AXL)/.57
• (CVX)/1.82
• (XOM)/.73
• (HMC)/117.85
• (ITT)/.89
• (LYB)/2.84
• (NWL)/.36
• (STX)/.84

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 165K versus 224K in June. 
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 3.6% versus 3.7% in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$54.6B versus -$55.5B in May.

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for June are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.7% decline in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.33 -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.37%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMT)/1.74

• (APTV)/1.14

• (ADP)/1.13

• (BLMN)/.35

• (BG)/.33

• (CME)/1.76

• (FCAU)/.60

• (GE)/.12

• (HES)/-.12

• (HUM)/5.27

• (JCI)/.62

• (TAP)/1.65

• (SMG)/2.74

• (SPG)/2.99

• (SSYS)/.15

After the Close:

• (AMED)/.99

• (APA)/.14

• (AVB)/2.31

• (CF)/.82

• (CAKE)/.81

• (CRUS)/.15

• (CTSH)/.92

• (ESV)/-1.28

• (ETH)/.48

• (HCP)/.43

• (H)/.46

• (KTOS)/.06

• (LRCX)/3.43

• (MCK)/3.01

• (MET)/1.34

• (OI)/.76

• (PPC)/.60

• (PRU)/3.22

• (QCOM)/.77

• (SKYW)/1.59

• (TDOC)/-.41

• (TWLO)/.02

• (WDC)/.19

• (WMB)/.23

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated to rise to 150K versus 102K in June.

8:30 am EST

• The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in 1Q.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI report for July is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 49.7 in June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,739,250 barrels versus a -10,835,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,481,270 barrels versus a -226,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +769,520 barrels versus a +613,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.74% versus a -1.3% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate -.25 basis points to 2.0-2.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's press conference, China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone CPI/GDP reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Democratic Presidential Debate and the (MYL) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Earnings Jitters, Profit-Taking, Restaurant/Pharma Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +6.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.83 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.02 +.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.45 +4.82%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.1%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +28.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 1.0 -34.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.70 +.41%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 527.0 +.51%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.32 +3.82%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 198.5 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.31 +.82%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.04 +.52%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.03 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 18.0 +3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 +1.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.33 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.06% -4.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 21.25 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.30 USD/Metric Tonne +2.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.4 +4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.60 -5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.3 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -198 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -131 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long