Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.1% 2) Airlines -1.0% 3) Energy -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ICE, MXL, PLT, ARWR, PBYI, CSII, XYL, TWLO, AGCO, K, BCO, ENS, PAYC, EAF, BDX, CDAY, PTON, WWE, SBH and PRSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DBX 2) WWE 3) ADNT 4) AMRS 5) GRUB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WBAI 2) ACB 3) FNKO 4) WWE 5) PLT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.6% 2) Computer Services +1.5% 3) Gaming +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UIS, FSCT, QNST, TWTR, TGI, CURO, IRBT, MDP, NYT, SONO, PRNB, CAH, NUAN HAIN, CTSH, ELF, ENSG, FMC, RAMP, CCC, ACLS, TERP, COHR, PENN, SNAP, TSLA, CDLX, LASR, TTWO, PBH, PINS, SAIC, ATSG, IONS, REGN, TPR, DBX, EBAY, NOVA, MTCH, DBX, PM, DX, NRZ, CHNG, GRSH, MCK, GILD and WERN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FSCT 2) CTSH 3) CAH 4) TWTR 5) GILD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CAH 2) TWTR 3) ODFL 4) CI 5) VMW

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 48.5% of Issues Advancing, 48.5% Declining
• 193 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 65.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.0%
• Vix 14.8 -2.0%
• Total Put/Call .6 -28.1%
• TRIN/Arms .84 -17.7%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• China Deaths at 563; More Japan Cruise Cases Found: Virus Update.  

• Australia Says Economy to Take ‘Significant’ Hit From Virus.

• Asian Stocks Rise After Strong Wall Street Moves. Stocks in Asia gained after data showed resilience in the U.S. economy and investors speculated the fallout from the coronavirus could be contained. U.S. equities earlier closed at an all-time high and Treasury yields held on to their advance. Shares opened higher in Tokyo and Sydney and futures rose earlier in Hong Kong, signaling equities in the Asia Pacific could be on course for a third day of gains. Risk sentiment was lifted after a string of reports on possible vaccines for the virus, but the World Health Organization later said there are no proven therapeutics. On the data front: U.S. firms added more jobs than forecast in January and business activity firmed in the services sector. Crude oil remained higher amid prospects for OPEC+ output cuts. Japan’s Topix index added 1.5% as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.7%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• GOP Senators Investigating Hunter Biden: Impeachment Update.

• Hint of Good News Is All It Takes in Market Primed to Rally.

• Hong Kong Fund Manager’s Quant Model Sees Virus Peaking in March.

• Bernie Sanders Backed by One-Third of New Hampshire Democrats in Poll.

• Biden Adviser Casts Doubt on Iowa Results After App Troubles.  

• PPD Inc. Raises $1.62 Billion in 2020’s Biggest U.S. IPO.

Wall Street Journal:

• Vote is largely along party lines and falls short of two-thirds needed.

• M.B.A. Programs Rush to Add STEM Degrees.

• How Iowa Slipped Away From Joe Biden. 

• U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows for First Time in Six Years.

Fox News:

• Trump announces Thursday statement after Senate acquits on both articles in historic vote.

• RONNA MCDANIEL: Here's what happens next after Dems' fiasco.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Qualcomm stock rises after earnings top Street estimates.

• Tesla’s surging stock is starting to remind Wall Street of bitcoin’s parabolic rally in 2017—here’s why.

CNBC:   

• Dow jumps 480 points, S&P 500 closes at record as market shakes off coronavirus fears .

• Ponzi scheme king Bernie Madoff says he is dying, seeks early release from prison.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Qualcomm, Yum China, Peloton and more.

• Epic and about 60 hospitals oppose medical data-sharing rules.

• Casper prices IPO at $12 a share, which is at the low end of estimates.

• Tesla(TSLA) shares crater 17% after coronavirus delays Model 3 deliveries.

• Ancestry to lay off 6% of workforce because of a slowdown in the consumer DNA-testing market.

• Peloton stock plummets after the company reports widening loss, slowing revenue.

• Macy’s says it will grow 4 of its private brands to $1 billion.

• OPEC+ committee struggles for consensus on emergency meeting, extends talks for third day.

• Cramer: ‘I understand why people are buying stocks’ after watching Trump’s State of the Union.

Zero Hedge:

• US Launches Criminal Probe Into JPMorgan For Gold Price Manipulation.

• Donald Trump Acquitted In Senate Impeachment Trial.

• Coronavirus Will Whack 2% From Global GDP Growth In Q1: Goldman.

• There Is Something Very Strange In The Latest Chinese Official Coronavirus Numbers.

• The Lies We Are Being Told About The Coronavirus.

• China Confirms 70 New Deaths, Raising Global Total To 562.

• Romney Vote Motivated By 'Bitterness And Jealousy' According To Former Spokesman.

• Wuhan Crematorium Inundated With Coronavirus-Infected Corpses.

• Earth Is About To Enter A 30-Year "Mini Ice Age" As The Sun Hibernates, Scientist Warns.

• Record Surge In Global Virus Cases Sparks Panic-Bid For Stocks To All-Time Highs.

John Hopkins University:

• Wuhan Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

Propublica:

• The Iowa Caucuses App Had Another Problem: It Could Have Been Hacked.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.5 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.25 -2.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.58 +.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures +.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AGCO)/1.55

• (MT)/.05

• (BDX)/2.64

• (BMY)/.98

• (CAH)/1.22

• (CI)/4.20

• (EL)/1.90

• (FCAU)/.95

• (HAIN)/.16

• (ICE)/.95

• (K)/.86

• (ODFL)/1.81

• (PENN)/.35

• (PM)/1.21

• (REGN)/7.17

• (SNY)/1.28

• (SNA)/3.08

• (TPR)/.99

• (TWTR)/.27

• (TSN)/1.67

• (YUM)/1.13

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/1.19

• (BRKS)/.24

• (FTNT)/.69

• (FWRD)/.92

• (MN)/.29

• (NWSA)/.15 

• (TTWO)/.75 

• (UBER)/-.52

• (WYNN)/1.01

• (ZEN)/.10

Economic Releases 
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Jan.

8:30 am EST

• Preliminary 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a -.2% decline in 3Q.

• Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +2.5% gain in 3Q.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 215K versus 216K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1720K versus 1703K prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, China Trade Balance report, German Factory Orders report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Diminished Coronavirus Fears, Oil Gain, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -4.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.25 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.49 -1.37%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.29 +1.38%

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +24
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +8.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +72.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.54 -4.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 635.0 -.75%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 49.31 -3.53%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.25 -2.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.82 -4.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.24 -1.32%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.03 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 17.75 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +2.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.56 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .19 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 78.40 USD/Metric Tonne -3.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.20 +17.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.0 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.4 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
• 22.2% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 38.4% chance of cut at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +386 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long