Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Neither the US or Iran is prepared to cede control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Traders are scrambling to shield their portfolios against further losses in Treasuries, as worries over the budget deficit and inflation push yields toward multiyear highs. 
• European natural gas benchmark futures surged to their highest since January 2023 as the US launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran. 
• The premiere of gameplay footage from the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI topped Netflix’s viewing charts last week, reaching 31.1 million views and topping a new film from Robert De Niro. 
• Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, is set to become the first major investor in a defense technology company proposed by Ukraine’s former defense minister.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Claims 'Heavy US Casualties,' After Trump Ordered New Strikes. 
• Netanyahu Boasts Of Years-Long Effort To Convince US To Launch War Against Iran. 
• Governor DeSantis Revokes Permits For Flock Cameras On Florida State Highways.   
• Chevron Nears Deal To Expand Venezuela Oil Operations.
• *CHINA OBJECTED TO G20 STATEMENT ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ: TREASURY. *CHINA OBJECTS TO G20 STATEMENT ON DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: TREASURY. *CHINA OBJECTED TO G20 STATEMENT ON NON-MKT ECONOMIES: TREASURY.
• Yields on Japan’s 20-year government bond rose 1.5 basis points to 3.895%, the highest since 1996. 
• Clyburn Calls For Packing The Court With "Baker's Dozen" To Flip Cases. 
• Chinese Student Charged With Lying To Border Agents Over Alleged Airport Photo Assignments From Beijing.
• Trump Mentions Tapping The 'Older Stuff' While Dismissing Reports Of Missile Shortages.
• Federal Judge Blocks New York From Enforcing $75 Billion Climate Superfund Law.     
• "State Terrorism": Putin Blasts Zelensky After Wild Threat Of Drone Attacks To 'De Facto Close' Russian Airspace.
• *DROPBOX SHARES FALL 4% AFTER USER ACCOUNTS BREACHED BY HACKERS.
• OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk: WSJ. that should help it get new subs.   
• PUTIN SAYS GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ "IS FACING DIRE TIMES" AND "DOESN'T ENJOY THE TRUST OF HIS PEOPLE BECAUSE HE DOES NOT PROTECT NATIONAL INTERESTS". PUTIN SAYS "THEY HAVE MADE OBVIOUS MISTAKES, PEOPLE ARE LOSING JOBS" AND "THE LIVING CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING WORSE". 
• "Escalation Trap": Robert Pape Blasts Bessent's "Economic D-Day" Targeting Iran. 
• PUTIN ANSWERING QUESTION IF UNITED KINGDOM MILITARY OBJECTS COULD BE TARGETED BY RUSSIA: IT'S A MILITARY SECRET.
• California Let 400,000 Voters Register Without Providing Any ID.
• Rate-Spike Hedgers Go "Bonkers" As Iran Attacks Spike Oil; Stocks, Gold, & Crypto All Tank.    

• @CNBC  

• China dissented from G20 statement opposing 'cheap exports' flooding market, Bessent says.
• Palo Alto CEO says $1 trillion of cybersecurity infrastructure isn’t ready for AI.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after Wall Street posts third straight losing day: Live updates.   
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Dell, MongoDB, GitLab and more.
• Dell surges 5% after lifting fiscal 2027 forecast on AI server strength.
• Palo Alto Networks beats quarterly estimates on AI demand, continues acquisition spree.  

• @WallStEngine

• CREDO $CRDO Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $479.0M (Est. $472M) ; +114.7% YoY. Adj. EPS: $1.20 (Est. $1.17). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 68.0%. Non-GAAP Net Income: $236.3M (Est. $230M) ; +140% YoY. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $525M-$535M (Est. $516M). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 67.0%-69.0%. GAAP Gross Margin: 62.9%-64.9%. Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: $100M-$105M. GAAP Operating Expenses: $199M-$204M.
• FDA CRACKS DOWN ON COMPOUNDED GLP-1s. The FDA is warning telehealth firms and compounders over unapproved weight-loss drugs including semaglutide, tirzepatide and retatrutide. $HIMS.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%. 
• Crude Oil 91.14/bbl. +1.0% 
• Gold 4,346.0 USD/t oz. -1.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.27 -.10%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.20 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.0 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.81% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.44%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.