Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mideast War Escalation Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 +2.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.2 -.9% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 +2.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 140.2 +1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -1.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.60 -.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.5 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +53.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.63 +.37:  Growth Rate +22.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 977.09 +1.07: Growth Rate +45.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 39.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.0 -3.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 82.0 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.7 -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.4% -30.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.95% +11.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 +12.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 55.3% (+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.9%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,370 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -142 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -37 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long