Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 +.5% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.3 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .46 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .01 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.3 +1.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.2 +1.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.0 +.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.3 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -.7

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.9 +7.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 73.3 -2.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.1 -1.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(12 of 500 reporting) +14.6% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.51 +.18:  Growth Rate +23.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,055.44 +1.08: Growth Rate +57.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 40.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.7 -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 72.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.4% +.4 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% -130.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.29% +6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +14.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 58.5% (+9.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 46.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +502 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -123 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -5 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/energy/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long