Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 66.5% of Issues Advancing, 30.0% Declining
• 99 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 49.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.0 +19.0 points
• Vix 28.3 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .70 -9.1%
• TRIN/Arms .75 +10.3%

 

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Brazil’s Economy Faces ‘Exceptionally High’ Risks, IMF Says.
• Hyundai Confident on Flying Cars, Steps Up Plans for Full Lineup.  
• Pompeo Seeks to Show United Front on China Despite Virus Crisis.
• Most Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Gains; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap. Most Asian stocks followed their U.S. peers higher amid optimism over President Donald Trump leaving hospital and that lawmakers will move closer to providing more stimulus. The dollar remained under pressure and Treasuries steadied. Stocks saw modest gains in Japan and South Korea. S&P 500 contracts were little changed after U.S. stocks closed at the highest levels of the day with energy, health care and technology shares the biggest gainers. Nasdaq futures fluctuated on reports a House panel may propose sweeping reforms of the technology sector. Treasury yields held Monday’s gains after surging as traders adjusted their election bets following Joe Biden’s latest poll numbers. Australian shares slipped ahead of the budget announcement and central bank rate decision. S&P 500 futures were little changed at 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.8% Monday. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2%. Hang Seng futures rose 0.3%.
• Oil Extends Gains Towards $40 on Optimism For More U.S. Stimulus.  
• Oil Pipeline Operators Offer New Discounts as Demand Craters.
• Pompeo Pressure, China’s Golden Tourism, Deficit Day: Eco Day.  
• U.S. Stimulus Talks Grind On Without a Deal Despite Trump Urging.
• Trump Leaves Hospital; Ireland Rejects Lockdown: Virus Update.
• President Leaves the Hospital, Walking Unassisted: Trump Update.  
• House Panel to Recommend Breakup of Tech Giants, Republican Says.
• Mapping New York City's New Covid Hotspots.  
• Apple Stops Selling Rival Earphones, Speakers Ahead of Launches.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Steps Up Efforts to Counter China’s Dominance of Minerals Key to Electric Cars, Phones.
• Trump Leaves Hospital as Cases Rise Among Top Aides.
• Don’t Underestimate Mike Pence.
• An Illinois Tax Crossroads.
• The Covid Economy Carves Deep Divide Between Haves and Have-Nots.

Fox News:

• Trump vows return to campaign trail as he leaves Walter Reed, returns to WH after COVID treatment.
  

CNBC.com:

• Pelosi, Mnuchin speak for an hour but don’t reach a coronavirus stimulus deal
• CDC revises coronavirus guidance to acknowledge that it spreads through airborne transmission.
• Mike Pence, Kamala Harris to debate behind plexiglass barrier because of coronavirus concerns.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alteryx, Iovance Biotherapeutics & more.
• Regal Cinemas closing all U.S. theaters because it really needs the blockbusters, CEO says. 
  

MarketWatch.com:        

• John McAfee faces federal charges related to cryptocurrency promotions.

Zero Hedge: 

• Ginsburg's Nightmare: The Democratic Plan To Destroy The Supreme Court Of The United States.
• Watch: Trump Returns To White House Residence 72 Hours After Arriving At Walter Reed.
• Millions Risk Losing Power Over Unpaid Utilities As Most States' Pandemic Grace Period Expires.
• NBA Finals Game 2 Ratings Collapse 68% To All-Time Low.
• California Professor: "As A White American, I Am, By Definition, Racist".
• Senate Judiciary Hearing For Amy Coney Barrett To Take Place Oct 12-15.
• Stocks & Gold Jump, Bonds & The Dollar Dump As Election Fears Fade.

The Epoch Times:

• China Arrests Mother of Dissident Virologist Who Blamed Beijing for Virus Coverup.
• Chinese Communist Party Is Responsible for Trump’s Infection: Gordon Chang.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.56 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.0 +16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.25 +.11%
• FTSE 100 futures -.24%.

• S&P 500 futures -.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (PAYX)/.55
  

After the Close:

• (LEVI)/-.22
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance report for Aug. is estimated at -$66.2B versus -$63.6B in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings report for Aug. is estimated to fall to 6500 versus 6618 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Canada Trade Balance report, US weekly retail sales reports, $52B 3Y T-Note auction and the (ALXN) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Trump Health Improvement, Stimulus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Biotech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.5 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.0 +43.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.98 +.84%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.0 -3.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .73 -18.0%

• NYSE Arms .74 +12.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.37 -3.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 846.09 -.50%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.52 -2.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -.81%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 216.45 -4.49%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.09 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 14.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.75 -2.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.51 +.38%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 57.5 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.34 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 159.4 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.80 +8.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +77 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer staple/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -2.9% 2) Homebuilding -1.6% 3) REITs -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TRNE, CCX, GEO, DHI, AMAG, FUN, CHEF, SBE, NKLA, DKNG and EPR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) ATUS 3) XHB 4) URI 5) MNK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) DNKN 3) BLD 4) IBP  5) T
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +4.1% 2) Steel +2.8% 3) Shipping +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MYOK, HGEN, EXPI, CYTK, LTHM, HMSY, JELD, CMTL, EPZM, PLUG, AGIO, PACB, TCP, REGN and RGEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACWI 2) REGN 3) LEVI 4) PAYX 5) SKX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XPEV 2) REAL 3) REGN 4) TRGP 5) KOPS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 71.7% of Issues Advancing, 26.3% Declining
• 103 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 46.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 34.0 +30.0 points
• Vix 28.6 +3.4%
• Total Put/Call .71 -20.2%
• TRIN/Arms .75 +15.2%