Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,4881.0 unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.40 +.42%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AB)/.81
• (MT)/.22
• (AZN)/1.10
• (BWA)/.92
• (DUK)/1.01
• (GNRC)/1.96
• (K)/.88
• (LH)/3.08
• (TAP)/.77
• (PEP)/1.46
• (R)/.94
• (SINA)/.86
• (TPX)/.52
• (TSN)/1.50
• (YETI)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CGNX)/.27
• (DDOG)/.02
• (EXPE)/-1.92
• (FLO)/.24
• (FWRD)/.73
• (ILMN)/1.14
• (MHK)/2.87
• (DIS)/-.34
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 758K versus 779K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4420K versus 4592K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $27B 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (PYPL) investor day and the (NUS) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Valuation Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,479.0 +30.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.31 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -1.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.4 +.39%

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +16.7%

• NYSE Arms .87 -47.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.59 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 505.11 +.02%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.63 -.74%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 94.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.65 +.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.04 -.34%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.29 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.90 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.10 -10.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 139.3 -2.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.60 -5.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -267 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On loses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.5% 2) Construction -.6% 3) Alt Energy .4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GM, GOCO, CSCO, PCVX, HIMS, OMF, CLNE, THC, DCRB, SLP, AIZ, APPH, REYN, AEIS, IPG, SI, HBI, HCSG, YELP, CODX, HOL, FMC, QLYS, EXPI, FLR, EXPI, CDAY, VCRA, AKAM, TDC, ATEN, SAVA, XONE, AYX and MSTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DXC 2) AKAM 3) MJ 4) ICLN 5) HBI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AKAM 2) SPCE 3) LAD 4) STOK 5) QS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.5% 2) Gaming +2.4% 3) Airlines +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CLVR, ACIC, PACB, KOPN, CVLB, EGOV, THS, KALV, UAVS, FTAI, NOG, MP, UAA, MTCH, ENPH, OPEN, TWTR, PDAC, AVYA, UA, TYL, MBUU, CARA, SAH, EXPC, LORL, MXL, CCK, LYFT, GT, STEP, SOI, AFIB, CLF, DCPH, AGIO and WCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRK 2) YELL 3) RKDA 4) UAVS 5) UAMY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRTO 2) UAA 3) MODN 4) NFH 5) GT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 48.5% Declining
• 276 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 86.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,433.0 -16.0 points
• Vix 23.0 +6.2%
• Total Put/Call .74 +12.1%
• TRIN/Arms .89 -46.4%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Korea’s Jobless Rate Hits Highest Since 1999 Amid Virus Hit.
  
• Global Stock Rally Stalls; Dollar Holds Decline: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Rally After Report Points to Shrinking U.S. Stockpiles.  
• Biden’s Run-It-Hot, China’s Distortion, Tear Down Wall: Eco Day.
  
• Fed’s Aid Program for Midsize Businesses Spent Only 3% of Its Total.
• Gold Holds Three-Day Advance as Investors Weigh Stimulus Outlook.
• Lilly Covid Antibody Combo Gets U.S. Emergency-Use Authorization.  
• Audi Adds Electric Luxury Coupe as Tesla Upgrades Model S.  
• Biden Asks 56 Trump-Appointed U.S. Attorneys to Step Down.  
• Chip Shortage Hits Solar Sector With Enphase Citing Constraints.  
• JPMorgan Sees Tesla Bitcoin Bet as Too Bold for Others to Follow.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Gained Traction as a Form of Payment.
• The Great Student Loan Scam.
• Most Salesforce Employees to Work Remotely at Least Part Time.
• Huawei Files U.S. Lawsuit Disputing That It Is a Security Threat.

Fox News:  

• These 6 GOP senators voted to let Trump trial proceed.
  

CNBC.com:

• Cisco earnings report shows infrastructure platforms, its biggest business, is still struggling.
• Robinhood lobbying targets legislation that could hurt its business model.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Twitter, Lyft, Enphase Energy and more.
• GameStop breaks below $50 a share as short squeeze comes to an end.

Zero Hedge: 

• Senate Votes Trump Impeachment Trial Constitutional, Six Republicans Break Ranks.
• "Never Seen Anything Like This": Junk Bond Yields Slide Below 4% For First Time Ever In Record Buying Spree.
• China Economy Rolling Over Hard Ahead Of Lunar New Year.
• "A Strange Game", Part 2.
• SEC Braces For Market Manipulation Crackdown, Expands Staff's Power To Start New Probes.
• Japanification On The Rocks: JGBs Slide In Longest Losing Streak Since 2003.
• The Dumbing Down Of America Is Poised To Accelerate.
• J&J CEO Says Annual Covid Vaccine Needed "For Years" As MSM Warns Virus Will "Circulate For Decades".
• Debt & The Demise Of The Middle Class.
• Lyft Jumps Despite Continued Customer Plunge As Revenue Per Rider Jumps.
• WTI Dips After Biggest Gasoline Build Since April.
• Americans Have Never Been More Dissatisfied With How The Country Is Functioning Than They Are Right Now.
• Prepare For "Onslaught Of Winter Storms" In Coming Days.
• Twitter User Growth Disappoints, Warns Maintaining Pandemic-Surge "Challenging".
• Small Caps Surge To Longest Win Streak Since 2019 As Dollar Dives.

Newsmax:

• Biden Son-In-Law’s Involvement in Company Raises Ethics Questions.
• Rand Paul and Jim Jordan Blast Dems for Focusing on Impeachment.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki Says 50% of Schools with In-Person Classes ‘One Day a Week’ Fulfills Joe Biden’s Promise to Reopen Schools (VIDEO).
• Breaking: Senate Votes 56 to 44 to Proceed with Impeachment Trial of Private Citizen Donald J. Trump – 6 Republicans Join All Democrats in Vote.
• GOP Senator Cassidy Warns that More GOP Senators May Vote for Impeachment — Then Joins Democrats in Vote to Proceed with Impeachment.
• Trump Defense Lawyer Schoen Plays Compilation Video of Democrats Calling For Trump’s Impeachment Since Day One of His Presidency.
• Super Bowl Ratings Lowest in 50 Years Since 1969 — Maybe It’s All of the Virtue Signaling?
• Psaki When Asked About Biden’s EO Forcing Girls to Compete Against Biological Males: Transgenders are More Important Than Your Daughters (VIDEO).
• “Unmasked” Video Provides More Information and Evidence Surrounding the 2020 Election.

The Epoch Times:

• China Insider: Chinese Netizens Need License to Comment on Current Affairs.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.78 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,488.0 +39.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.70 +.05%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.48%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BDC)/.81
• (BG)/1.82
• (CCJ)/-.05
• (CME)/1.36
• (KO)/.42
• (GM)/1.66
• (UAA)/-.07
  

After the Close:

• (CERN)/.78
• (COHR)/.96
• (EFX)/1.83
• (EQIX)/4.32
• (IRBT)/.31
• (MGM)/-.93
• (ORLY)/5.13
• (PPC)/.35
• (SAVE)/-1.48
• (TRUP)/.03
• (UBER)/-.39
• (WH)/.04
• (XPO)/.67
• (ZG)/.28
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -177,180 barrels versus a -994,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,892,360 barrels versus a +4,467,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,488,270 barrels versus a -9.000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.23% versus a +.6% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Jan. is estimated at -$150.0B versus -$32.6B in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, $41B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Financial Services Conference, Goldman Tech/Internet Conference and the (PM) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.