Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,910.0 -13.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.87 -.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74+1.35%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.69 +2.75%

• ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .73 -5.19%

• NYSE Arms .87 +27.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.36 -.22%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 488.29 -.04%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.91 +.71%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.5 +4.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.18 +.89%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.14 +1.1%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.55 +.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.75 +5.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.91 -.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 118.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 167.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.70 +28.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 134.6 -2.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.7 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +405 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 39.2% of Issues Advancing, 58.7% Declining
• 129 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 85.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,926.0 +4.0 points
• Vix 22.2 +3.5%
• Total Put/Call .71 -7.8%
• TRIN/Arms .92 +35.3%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• BOJ Should Avoid ETF Buys Fueling Stock Bubble, Ex-Official Says.
• Won Falls Prey to Outflows as Locals Join Foreigners’ Exodus.
• Japan Starts Vaccination; Melbourne Lifts Lockdown: Virus Update.  
• Treasury Yields Touch One-Year High; Stocks Slip: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Near $60 With a Third of U.S. Crude Output Shut In.
• U.S. Oil Output Slumps by Record One-Third as Permian Freezes.  
• Deep Freeze Upends U.S. Agriculture Markets From Grains to Beef.
• Freeze Could Keep Texans in the Dark for Days: Energy Update.
• Just Another SPAC Files for U.S. IPO (Really, That’s the Name).  
• Corporate CFOs Not Planning to Buy Bitcoin, Gartner Survey Shows.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Winter Storm Creates Havoc Across U.S.
• The Political Making of a Texas Power Outage.
• The Minimum Wage’s Racially Discriminatory Roots.
• Alden Global Capital Agrees to Buy Rest of Tribune Publishing.

Fox News:  

• Texas officials brace for more fatalities as deadly cold kills 10 people, leaves millions without power.
• 'This is unacceptable': Texas Gov. Abbott slams state electric company over blackouts amid frigid temps.
• READ IT: Trump trashes Mitch McConnell in searing new statement.

  CNBC.com:

• Energy prices surge as millions in Texas brave storm without power.
• Justice Department seeks more info on Salesforce’s $27 billion deal for Slack.
• Apple wins victory as North Dakota votes down bill that would regulate app stores.
• Elon Musk’s SpaceX raised $850 million, jumping valuation to about $74 billion.
• Lincoln Project co-founder Reed Galen ran dark money group as super PAC’s dealings face scrutiny.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Chevron, QuantumScape, Verizon & more.

MarketWatch.com:      

• Opinion: Lacking any intrinsic value, bitcoin’s price could be anything or nothing at all.  
  
• Big city flight led to surging suburban home prices — Will it outlast the pandemic?

Zero Hedge: 

• House Hearing On GameStop Fiasco Will Focus On "Short Selling And Stock Manipulation".
• Kraft Heinz, Conagra Will Start Passing On Soaring Food Costs To Consumers.
• Trump Declares War On Mitch McConnell, Calls Him "A Dour, Sullen, And Unsmiling Political Hack".
• Berkshire Reveals New Positions In Chevron, Verizon; Exits JPM; Trims Apple, Wells: Full 13F Summary.
• Hello Clean Energy Advocates, What Do We Do When The Wind Turbines Are All Frozen?
• Fed's Bullard Says Bitcoin At $50,000 Not A Threat To Dollar, Sees No Asset Bubbles Anywhere: "It's Just Normal Investing".
• Florida, California Took Opposite Approaches To COVID... With Virtually Same Result.
• Foreigners Bought A Record Amount Of US Stocks In 2020, Bond-Selling Continues.
• GBOAT: Is This The Greatest Bubble Of All Time?
• With Impeachment Over, Democrats Forge Ahead On $1.9 Trillion Stimulus.
• Bond Bloodbath Sparks Stock Slump; Dollar & Crypto Jump.

Newsmax:    

• VP Harris Taking Calls for Biden.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki: Gun Control a ‘Personal Priority’ For Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• Not Even An Ice Storm Can Stop Antifa From Rioting In Portland And Seattle (VIDEO).
• Fulton Country Director of Elections, Richard Barron, Is Removed From Office – Will They Now Ensure a Valid Audit on Their 2020 Results? Americans Want the Truth!
• US Service Member Injured after Bombs Dropped in Iraq – Iran Suspected – Biden Does Nothing.
• Why Is Dr. Fauci Receiving International Awards? Why is He Not Fired or Behind Bars?
• Pure Racism: New York City Principal Sends Home White Identities List to Parents to Convert Them to the “White Traitors” Stage of Whiteness.

The Epoch Times:

• O’Toole Calls for Relocation of Beijing Olympics Over CCP’s ‘Genocide’ Against Uyghurs, ‘Police State’ in Hong Kong.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.0 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.96 -.15%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,926.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.50 +1.44%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.25%.

• S&P 500 futures -.28%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.44%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADI)/1.32
• (CHH)/.63
• (GPC)/1.34
• (HLT)/.03
• (OC)/1.37
• (SHOP)/1.21
• (SINA)/.86
• (SAH)/1.40
• (WING)/.23
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/1.12
• (BIDU)/16.73
• (SAM)/2.84
• (CF)/.15
• (CAKE)/-.05
• (HLF)/.82
• (JACK)/1.77
• (MRO)/-.20
• (MOS)/.21
• (PAAS)/.43
• (STMP)/2.62
• (RGR)/1.19
• (SPWR)/.07
• (SNPS)/1.46
• (TWLO)/-.07
• (VMI)/1.79
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.7% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.4% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Jan. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -2.1% decline in Dec.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.6% gain in Dec.
• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 74.9% versus 74.5% in Dec.
• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.9% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated tat 83.0 versus 83.0 in Jan.

2:00 pm EST

• The Jan. 27 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

• (FIZZ) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $27B 20Y bond auction, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, UK inflation data report and the BTIG MedTech/Digital Health/Life Science/Diagnostic Tools Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Japan Clocks Another Quarter of Double-Digit Growth.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 Touches 30,000 for First Time Since 1990.
• Goldman’s Weaker Dollar Call Adds to Emerging-Market Fervor.  
  
• Japan Earthquake Injures 146, Causes Temporary Power Outages.
• Sanofi Confirms Both Covid Shots Could Be Ready This Year.
• Asian Stocks Advance; Crude Oil Jumps: Markets Wrap.
• Saudi Stocks Rise, Peers Fall With Earnings in Focus: Inside EM.   
• Embracing Bitcoin, Japan’s Recovery, NZ Lockdown: Eco Day.
• U.S. Infection Rate Eases to Lowest Since October: Virus Update.
• Don’t Let Down Guard on Virus, CDC Head Warns Amid Lethal Strain.  
• Biden Calls on Congress to ‘Enact Commonsense Gun Law Reforms’  
• Big Freeze Sends Gas Soaring With Arctic Grip Tightening.    
• Big Freeze Threatens Texas With Blackouts as Markets Gyrate.
• Drones Seen Capturing 30% of Express Delivery Market by 2040.   
• Don’t Let Down Guard on Virus, CDC Head Warns Amid Lethal Strain.

Wall Street Journal:

• Star Wars: The Blacklist Strikes Back.
• The Cuomo Covid Coverup.
• European Banks Use Pandemic to Clean House.
• Walmart’s Vaccine Rollout Heads to Small Towns.
• Vaccines Aren’t Yet Luring Workers Back to the Office.
• Remote Learning Is Causing Children to Gain Weight, Doctors Warn.
• Interior Secretary Nominee on Collision Course With Oil Firms.

CNBC:

• Tens of thousands protest Myanmar coup after night of fear, security patrols.
• UK says it shares U.S. concerns over WHO COVID-19 mission to China.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

MarketWatch.com:    

• Forget ‘Go woke, go broke,’ NASCAR claims social justice is at forefront as new season begins.  
• Don’t fall for the bitcoin bubble, even the Flintstones had a better system, warns economist Nouriel Roubini.   
• GM unveils electric Chevy Bolt compact SUV starting at $34,000.

Fox News:

• Republicans who voted to convict Trump under pressure.
  
• COST OF NO CONVICTION: Here's how much taxpayers will dish out for Trump impeachment trial.
• VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: Trump impeachment trial takes center stage but world goes on while America sleeps.
• Graham says Harris could be impeached if GOP takes back House.

Newsmax:

• Trump Remains GOP's Dominant Force After Acquittal.
• Biden White House Seeks to Turn Page on Trump.
• US Minority Entrepreneurs Fear for Survival Under Biden.
• On Parkland Anniversary Biden Announces New Gun Control Push.  
• Dershowitz Warns Against 'New McCarthyism' of Left.
• Jim Jordan Blasts Dems' 'Cancel Culture' Impeach Motive.
  

Zero Hedge: 

• "Never Experienced Such Vitriol" - Trump Lawyer's Home Vandalized Amid Wave Of Death Threats.
• Exposing The Robinhood Scam: Here's How Much Citadel Paid To Robinhood To Buy Your Orders.
• Energy Trader: We've Officially Hit "Holy S*it Levels".
• If House Price Increases Of 10% Is Not Inflation. Then What Is it.
• #SilverSqueeze Hits London As SLV Warns Of Limited Available Silver.
• Rickards Warns 'Green New Deal' Is Already Underway.
• Trump Lawyer Rage-Quits "Slanted" CBS Interview: "You [Media] Are Bloodthirsty For Ratings... Trying To Divide America".
• Recall Newsom Effort Gains Enough Signatures To Trigger Special Election In California.
• Myanmar Junta Tells Media "Coup" Label Is 'Illegal' As Armored Vehicles Pour Into Cities.
• Republicans Who Voted To Convict Trump Face Backlash From Within Party.
• Virginia College Suspends Players, Forfeits Men's Basketball Game For Kneeling During Anthem.
• EU's COVID-19 Vaccination Debacle Is "Epochal Failure".
• Speculative Mania Continues As Rationality "Goes Up In Smoke".
• Cambridge University Panel: Winston Churchill A "White Supremacist" Leading Empire "Worse Than The Nazis"   White House Demands China Provide All Data On COVID Outbreak Early Cases.
• Is China Creating A New Master Race? 
• 'Matrix'-Style Wearable Device Turns Humans Into Battery.
• The US Ministry Of Woke Propaganda Wants To Cancel You, Me, Fox, & Anyone Else Who Disagrees.
• Incoming SEC Chair Gary Gensler Could Be Worth Up To $119 Million.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Donors Shun Anti-Trump Nikki Haley – This Comes After She Slams President Trump During Impeachment Trial.
• It’s Clear – Since the 2020 Election – Joe Biden and His Gang Are Scared to Death of Facing the American People.
• Joe Biden Calls For Gun Control Measures on Anniversary of Parkland Shooting, ‘Ban Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Magazines’.
• Developing: New Hampshire Department of Justice Refuses to Investigate the Largest Voting Machine Counting Error in State History.
• CNN’s Chris Cuomo Ignores COVID Nursing Home Scandal Engulfing Governor Brother Andrew.
• SHOCKING EXCLUSIVE: Auditors Selected by Arizona Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Send Message to Observers: “F@#$ You”.
• The Power of the CCP.
• Peter Navarro: “What Mike Pence Did to Donald J. Trump – Will Go Down in History as One of the Greatest Betrayals Imaginable” (VIDEO).
• North Carolina GOP Condemns Richard Burr After He Openly Admits to Violating the US Constitution by Voting to Convict Trump.

The Epoch Times:

• China Must Be Banned From Investing in UK Defence Supply Chain, Lawmakers Say.
• Beijing Could Potentially Eavesdrop on Clubhouse Chinese Users’ Conversations: Report.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Ex-ECB Head Mario Draghi Sworn In as Italian Prime Minister. 
• U.K. Meets Key Vaccine Target, Opening Path to Lifting Lockdown.
• Cathie Wood Risks Having Too Much Money and Not Enough Stocks.
• The King of SPACs Wants You to Know He’s the Next Buffett.  
• Morgan Stanley May Bet on Bitcoin in $150 Billion Investment Arm.  
• U.K. Reaches Key Vaccine Goal; U.S. Cases Ease: Virus Update.
• Mercedes-Benz Recalls Over 1 Million Cars Over Tech Error.
• Speculative Traders Add Billions to ‘Meme’ Stocks at New Records.  
• Arctic Blast Grips U.S., Upending Markets, Setting Records.
• Biden Aide Ducklo Resigns Over Report He Threatened Reporter.  
• Biden's $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Moves to Next Step: Eco Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Facebook Meets Apple in Clash of the Tech Titans—‘We Need to Inflict Pain’.
• How Congress Might Soon Shake Big Tech’s Foundation.
• Pentagon Seeks Autonomous Ships, Choppers, Jets.
• Inside the WallStreetBets Forum That Launched GameStop Frenzy.
• Tariffs on Wine, Food From Europe to Stay for Now, U.S. Says.
• Boeing CEO Said Board Moved Quickly on MAX Safety; New Details Suggest Otherwise.

CNBC:

• SPACs used to be a joke in Silicon Valley — now they’re going mainstream.
• Fatigue, headaches and chest pain: Medical experts try to establish ‘long Covid’ diagnosis.
• Covid vaccine rollout gives CVS, Walgreens a chance to bring health care to communities of color.
• Lincoln Project backers mull ending donations after misconduct allegations, co-founder Steve Schmidt quits board.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (GLW), (RDSA) and (HOLX).

MarketWatch.com: 

• Despite surging stocks and home prices, there’s a long road before inflation takes hold — here’s why.

Fox News:

• Trump acquitted by Senate after wild whiplash final day of impeachment trial.
• Trump celebrates acquittal in Senate trial, foreshadows political future.
• Violent BLM protest in NYC leaves two NYPD cops injured, 11 arrested.
• McConnell tells GOP colleagues he will vote to acquit Trump.
• Cancel culture claims its next victim as 'Bachelor' host steps down.
• Newsom recall just crossed line to reality as campaign hits threshold.

Newsmax:

• 5 Republicans Vote to Allow Witnesses in Impeachment Trial.  
• AP Source: GOP Leader McConnell Will Vote to Acquit Trump. 
• Ric Grenell to Newsmax TV: Impeachment Trial Is a 'Joke'.  
• Biden Begins Dismantling Trump's 'Remain in Mexico' Asylum Policy. 
• NC GOP Chairman: Sen. Burr's Vote Shocking.
  

Zero Hedge: 

• McConnell Says Trump "Responsible For Provoking" Attack After Voting To Acquit; Trump Says MAGA "Has Just Begun".
• "Power Bills To The Moon": Chaos, Shock As Electricity Prices Across US Explode.
• This Is Why Hospitals Can Charge $6,000 Or $60,000 For The Exact Same Procedure.
• "I'm A Normal Working Person": Dogecoin Creator Sold His Coins In 2015 To Buy A Used Honda.
• Socialism Never Works.
• Indoor Dining At 25% Capacity Is Not Enough To Stay Alive, NYC Restaurateurs Say.
• Third Of Americans Skeptical Of COVID Vaccine, Says Poll.
• ...By Big Government, For Big Government.
• 'Buffett Indicator' Extremes Expose "Remarkable Mania" In US Equities.
• Why Stimulus Doesn't Lead To Organic Growth.
• Japan Rocked By Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Off Fukushima, No Tsunami Reported.
• Peter Schiff: The Fed Has Handed The US Government A Blank Check.
• Google Agrees To $76 Million Settlement With French Publishers.
• Biden DOJ Files Appeal To Extradite Julian Assange, Ignoring Rights Groups.
• Russia "Ready" To Cut EU Ties If Bloc Moves On Putin Inner Circle Sanctions.
• One Man's Terrorist Is Another Man's Freedom Fighter.
• Court Docs Show FBI Can Intercept Encrypted Messages From ‘Signal’ App.
• Spot, The Robot Dog, Is Now "Battery Trained".
• Johnstone: The Real World And The Narrative World.
• Why Trust The 'Experts'?
• 'High Steaks' As Israeli Startup Prints World's First Ribeye.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Senate Votes 57-43 to ACQUIT Donald Trump – Here Are the SEVEN Republicans Who Voted to Convict.
• Biden White House Plan to Keep Occupying Troops in DC Through End of Year.
• EXCLUSIVE: Three 300,000 Biden Vote Dumps Late on Election Night in Virginia Cannot Be Adequately Explained or Tied to Final Results.
• “My Entire Family, My Law Firm, My Home Is Under Siege Right Now” – Trump Attorney Van Der Veen Chokes Up Talking about Vicious Assaults by Democrats (VIDEO).
• “So Righteous as the Democrats – Were Pushing Russia Collusion Bullshit for 3 Years” – Donald Trump Jr. ON FIRE — Blasts Mitch McConnell After He Trashes President Trump.
• MSNBC and CNN Still Promoting Lincoln Project After Revelations That Their Founder Preyed on Teen Boys.
• “Does a Politician Raising Bail for Rioters Encourage More Rioting?” – GOP Senators Question Democrat Impeachment Leader Over Kamala Harris’s Rioters Bail Fund.
• MORE EVIDENCE: Riots at the Capitol Were Pre-Planned by Members of Antifa, Neo-Nazis and Others.
• “They Legally Eviscerated Them” – GOP Senator Ron Johnson on the President’s Lawyers’ Performance on Friday (VIDEO).
• NEW: Joe Biden to Allow 25,000 Migrants Seeking Asylum Into US Amid Covid Pandemic.

The Epoch Times:

• NYPD Officer Accused of Spying for Chinese Regime to Be Released on $2 Million Bond.
• Rep. Green: Commerce Nominee Should Commit to Keeping Huawei on Blacklist.
• China Refused to Provide WHO Team With Raw Data on Early COVID Cases, Team Member Says.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).