Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.92 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,818.0 +19.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.80 +.03%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (B)/.33
• (DE)/2.15
• (FRO)/-.01
• (ITT)/.92
• (MGA)/2.03
  

After the Close:

• (BLUE)/-2.96
• (KBR)/.48
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for February is estimated to fall to 58.7 versus 59.2 in Jan.
• The Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 58.3 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 6.6M versus 6.76M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• (FIZZ) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Jobless Claims, Inflation Concerns, Oil Weakness, Alt Energy/Energy Sector Weakness

 

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.1 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,821.0 -148.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.11 +.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.69 -.82%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.4 -.44%

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -33.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +16.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +39.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.85 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 490.08 +.14%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 +1.52%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.75 +3.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.15 +.07%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.69 +.59%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.70 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.75 -3.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 117.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 168.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.45%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 79.8 +2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 132.9 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.2 -1.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -161 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my biotech/energy/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.3% 2) Oil Service -3.3% 3) Steel -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PSTH, PRCH, ALSN, WMT, KAR, MTEM, WAB, XONE, PLTR, KOPN, ALB, HLF, VG, RIOT, NRIX, FSLY, VC, STMP, IMUX and MD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UAVS 2) NRG 3) ASHR 4) SOXS 5) XLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EH 2) BTBT 3) FUBO 4) KAR 5) SWI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +2.9% 2) Disk Drives +1.0% 3) Utilities +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BCOV, TCS, CLSK, HGEN, FE, CCIV, TWLO, CBZ, CRMD, BLMN, CAKE, LKQ, SCPL, ACIC, CADE, MESA, VVNT, VST, VIH, YMAB, RAVN, KHC, LOPE, SSTK, ZNGA, CFX, DMYI, DYN, QUOT, FRX, LEGN, IDXX, MP, AXTA, FOCS, SABR and CMLF
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IGV 2) FE 3) FLNT 4) BLMN 5) STMP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWLO 2) RIGL 3) KO 4) REGL 5) AAWW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 24.3% of Issues Advancing, 73.0% Declining
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 85.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,749.0 -220.0 points
• Vix 23.6 +10.0%
• Total Put/Call .85 +19.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +38.0%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Australia Unemployment Falls Further as Recovery Intensifies.  
• Chinese Markets Reopen With Stocks Primed to Hit All-Time Highs.
• Asian Stocks Drift; Bond Yields Hold Decline: Markets Wrap.  
• Brent Oil Passes $65 With U.S. Crisis Now a Global Supply Shock.    
• Gasoline Prices Are Starting to Soar as Cold Blast Supply Chains.
• Gold Driven to Two-Month Low as Haven Assets Fall Out of Favor.  
• Taper Patience, Vaccine Protectionism, Decoupling Costs: Eco Day.
• Frozen Texans Rely on Wits and Dogs to Find Warmth and Water.  
• Facebook Cuts Off News in Australia in Fight Over Payments.  
• Roaring Kitty Wants You to Know He’s No Wolf of Wall Street.  
• Port of L.A. Will Divert Cargo Ships to Battle Import Congestion.  
• CDC Gearing Up to Track Three Covid Variants in U.S., Chief Says. 

Wall Street Journal: 

• In Texas, a Desperate Effort to Stay Warm.
• Universal Basic Income Could Be Coming for Kids.
• Economic Recovery Broadens as Retail Spending Rebounds.
• Texas Spins Into the Wind.
• Covid Catches Andrew Cuomo.
• The Science Behind Why Covid Variants Are Spreading Faster.
• North Korea Turns to Cryptocurrency Schemes in Global Heists, U.S. Says.
• Insiders at Covid Vaccine Makers Sold Millions in Stock Last Year.
• GameStop Frenzy Prompts SEC to Weigh More Short Sale Transparency.
• Europe Locked Its Economy in Place. Unlocking It Could Be Ugly.
• Democrats Face Intraparty Fight on Minimum Wage.
  
• Oil Prices Are Up, but Frackers Stay on the Sidelines—for Now.

Fox News: 

• Rush Limbaugh, talk radio trailblazer and American patriot, dead at 70.
• Limbaugh had this advice for listener in final live show, a warning for Biden.
  

CNBC.com:

• Pfizer says South African variant could significantly reduce vaccine protection.
• Interest rates will continue to rise, but don’t blame it all on inflation, economists say.
• Biden’s snub of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a ‘warning’ of a relationship downgrade.
• Generac CEO says demand for power generators is high: ‘We can’t make them fast enough.
  
• ’Fed officials see economy ‘far from’ where it needs to be, meaning easy policy won’t change soon, minutes show. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Twilio, SunPower, Tilray and more.

MarketWatch.com:     

• Twilio shares spike 10% on jump in revenue.
  
• We were ‘dangerously close’ to collapse of ‘entire system,’ says Interactive Brokers founder ahead of GameStop hearing.

Zero Hedge: 

• Arizona Sheriff Sees Fivefold Increase in Illegal Border Crossings.
• Is Texas Facing A Humanitarian Crisis?
• Despite Putting 77% Of Vax Centers In Hard-Hit Hoods, De Blasio Admits "Profound" Racial Disparities In NYC Jabs.
• Everything They Don't Like Is Now A Public Health Emergency.
• "Citrus Disaster" - Texas Cold Snap Means Crop Losses For Grapefruit Growers.
• New COVID Levels Slump To Lowest In Months, 1/3rd Of US Troops Reject Jabs.
• Kroger Closes More Grocery Stores Over "Hazard Pay" Laws.
• Texas Bans NatGas Exports Out Of State, 7 Million Under 'Boil-Water' Notice.
• Top JPMorgan Banker Tells Clients Forget About Bubbles And Just Buy Everything.
• WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• The False And Exaggerated Claims Still Being Spread About The Capitol Riot: Greenwald.
• Bitcoin Roars To Record Highs As Inflation Soars, Bond 'Rout' Stalls.

Newsmax:    

• Pompeo: Biden Echoing 'Chinese Propaganda'.
• Trump on Election: Really Bad, Dishonest Things Happened'.
• Donald Trump to Newsmax TV: Biden Lying or 'Mentally Gone' on Vax Gaffe.
• Trump: 'We Had China Exactly Where We Wanted Them'.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• TRAINWRECK: Kamala Harris Stammers Incoherently When Confronted About Biden Admin’s Failure to Reopen Schools (VIDEO).
• “The Angriest Person In America Today Is Hillary Clinton – She Said Why Didn’t They Do This For Me?” – President Trump on Greg Kelly Rips Democrats on Stolen Election (VIDEO).
• President Trump Reacts to Death of Conservative Icon Rush Limbaugh (VIDEO).
• OUTRAGEOUS: After Abandoning Trump and Allowing Landslide Election to be Stolen, Republican “Leaders” Now Want to Look Into Election Integrity – What Garbage!
• President Trump Will Join Sean Hannity Tonight in First Major Interview Since Failed Impeachment.
• MORE FAKE NEWS: Politico Omits Joe Biden’s Racist Lines and Defense of China’s Uyghur Genocide in Report on His Town Hall Dumpster Fire.
• Virginia Now Starting Another Garbage Audit – Using a 1980 Audit Program to Catch 2020 Voter Fraud.
• They are Lying to You: States That Claim That Audits of a Few Machines and Ballots Will Confirm Election Validity Are Just Plain Lying.

The Epoch Times:

• Thousands Protest Long-Term Lockdown in China’s Current Virus Hotspot.
• China Targets America’s Rare Earth Vulnerability.
• Over 150,000 Elderly in Virus Epicenter Vanished From Govt List of Benefits Recipients: Report.
• Rep. Banks Leads Republican Study Committee in Large-Scale Campaign to Counter CCP.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 28.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.93 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,976.0 +8.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.70 +.39%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.39%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open:

• (AAWW)/3.51
• (GOLD)/.31
• (BLMN)/-.01
• (CCL)/-1.64
• (DISH)/.89
• (FE)/.48
• (HRL)/.40
• (MAR)/.10
• (FIZZ)/.71
• (NEM)/.95
• (RS)/2.00
• (TPH)/.68
• (VC)/1.19
• (WMT)/1.51

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.28
• (ANET)/2.39
• (ED)/.74
• (CPRT)/.80
• (DBX)/.24
• (EHTH)/2.24
• (EVBG)/.02
• (HST)/-.20
• (PLNT)/.23
• (TTD)/1.88
• (TRIP)/-.25
• (OLED)/.63

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Jan. are estimated to fall to 1660K versus 1669K in Dec.
• Building Permits for Jan. are estimated to fall to 1679K versus 1709K in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 770K versus 793K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4425K versus 4545K prior.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.9% gain in Dec.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petro for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 20.0 versus a reading of 26.5 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (FIZZ) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Russia unemployment rate, $9B 30Y bond auction, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Feb., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.