Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China’s Slowdown Tests Central Bank as Debate Rages Over Easing.
• China Is More Dedicated Than Ever to Covid Zero as It Battles Delta.  
• China Slows Quant Hedge Fund Approvals as Trades Scrutinized.
• Asian Stocks Mixed After Jump in Yields, Dollar: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips as Investors Assess OPEC+ Response to Reserve Release.  
• OPEC+ Warns of Response as Biden Poised for Oil Reserve Release.  
• Wall Street Breathes Sigh of Relief as Powell Gets Second Fed Term.
  
• Traders Brace For June Interest-Rate Hikes After Biden Confirms Powell as Chair.
  
• Selloff in Highly Priced Tech Stocks Is Pressuring Hedge Funds That Piled In.
• N.Y. Says 90% Adults Inoculated; N.J. School Spike: Virus Update.  
• Fed Atlanta President Bostic Says Faster Taper Would Give Option for Earlier Hikes.  
• Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation.

Wall Street Journal:

• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Tesla’s Elon Musk Feud Behind the Scenes.
• Powell’s Nomination for Second Fed Term Signals Biden’s Desire for Policy Continuity.
• U.S. Home Sales on Track for Biggest Year in 15 Years.
• Comcast Weighs Pulling Some Content From Hulu.
• Censoring the Pilgrims. The left wants to cancel the WSJ’s annual Thanksgiving editorials.
• The Waukesha Rampage. The suspected assailant was free on a $1,000 bond despite recent charges of violence.
• Kyle Rittenhouse and the Left’s Terrifying Assault on Due Process. They want revolutionary justice. The legal system’s verdict will be supplanted by the people’s judgment.
• Samsung to Choose Taylor, Texas, for $17 Billion Chipmaking Factory.
• Austria’s Return to Lockdown Met With Anger, Resignation.

Fox News:  

• Criminal accused of Christmas parade bloodshed had been freed twice this year, despite active warrant.
• LIVE UPDATES: Hundreds gather for prayer vigil just 24 hours after Christmas parade tragedy.
• Kamala Harris calls for health care workforce that 'looks like America'.
  

CNBC.com:

• After Micron has best day in 18 months, two traders see a bigger breakout forming.
• White House says no Covid lockdowns as European nations implement restrictions.
• Zoom beats estimates even as revenue growth is poised to slow after pandemic.
• Jim Cramer picks 4 stocks to look at as market rotates away from tech winners.
• Cost of shipping a container from Asia jumped over 500% since last year, Traeger Grills CEO says.

MarketWatch         

• With Uber and Lyft prices rising, passengers return to original ride-hailing service: Taxi cabs.

Zero Hedge:

• Waukesha Massacre Suspect Charged With Five Counts Of Murder.
• Australian Army Begins Transferring COVID-Positive Cases, Contacts To Quarantine Camps. 
• Texas AG Accuses Biden Admin Of Creating Border Crisis As Large Migrant Caravan Approaches.
• BofA Is Bearish On Markets Ahead Of The 2022 "Rates Shock".
• Pentagon Confirms US Will Start Over-the-Horizon Mission In Afghanistan.
• Biden Thanksgiving Is Most Expensive Ever As Traditional Dinner Cost Soars 14%.
• Soros-Stooge Chesa Boudin Suddenly "Outraged" As Wave Of Shoplifting Gangs Sweeps Bay Area.
• Watch: Pelosi Admits Massive Climate Change Spending Is "A Religious Thing".
• $15 Billion In Inflows Every Single Day: Goldman Bets It All On A Meteoric Year-End Meltup.
• As Markets Brace For Beijing Easing, Chinese State Media Unveils 25bps RRR Cut Before Year-End.
• Biden Using Backdoor Rule To Pass Free College Agenda.
• The Benefit Of SARS-CoV-2 Natural Immunity In The Armed Forces.
• Cold Snap Sweeps Across China As Fears Of Energy Crisis Reemerge.
• Watch: Rhode Island Teacher Warns CRT "Absolutely Everywhere" In Schools.
• Bonds, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech Puke On Powell Pick; Banks Bid On Brainard Diss.

Newsmax:

• House Jan. 6 Panel's Latest Subpoenas Include Alex Jones, Roger Stone.
• Rep. Steil: 'Build Back Better' Bill Must Die in the Senate.
• Rep. Keller: Dems 'Lying to the American People' on Spending Bill.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• UPDATE: How Devastating: 79-Year-Old Nurse, Grandmother and ‘Dancing Grannie’ Member Is One of Five Killed by Christmas Parade Killer.
• UPDATE: It Was Intentional! Christmas Parade Killer Darrell Brooks Charged with 5 Counts of Intentional Homicide – The Media Was Wrong Again.
• MUST-READ EXCLUSIVE! Family of Rosanne Boyland Who was KILLED on January 6th Is DENIED HER FULL AUTOPSY REPORT – Speak Out for First Time and Plead for Government Investigation — PLEASE HELP THE BOYLAND FAMILY HERE! 
• BREAKING: Parade Killer Darrell Brooks Was Recently Arrested after RUNNING OVER WOMAN at a Gas Station Earlier This Month! — And Was Bailed Out for Only $1000 Last Week …Update: It Was Mother of His Child.
• Corrupt Milwaukee DA behind the John Doe Investigations Credited with Release of Christmas Parade Killer from Jail Last Week.
• DO NOT COMPLY: Thousands of New Yorkers Flood the Streets to March for Freedom As WORLDWIDE RESISTANCE Against Covid Tyranny Continues to Grow – (Video).

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Hypersonic Weapon Launched Second Missile: Report.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.58 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,933.0 -5.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 -.25%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.43%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/.66
• (AEO)/.61
• (AMWD)/.88
• (ADI)/1.70
• (BBY)/1.96
• (BURL)/1.27
• (CBRL)/1.52
• (DKS)/2.02
• (DLTR)/.95
• (SJM)/2.05
• (MDT)/1.29
• (TITN)/.68
  

After the Close:

• (PLAN)/-.11
• (ADSK)/1.26
• (DELL)/2.30
• (GPS)/.51
• (GES)/.45
• (HPQ)/.88
• (JWN)/.56
• (VMW)/1.54
  

Economic Releases 

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 59.2 versus 58.4 in Oct.
• The Markit US Services PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 59.0 versus 58.7 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 11.0 versus 12.0 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, $59B 7Y T-Note auction and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Fed Chair Powell's Reappointment, US Economic Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,051.0 +80.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.22 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.99 +.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -6.3%

• NYSE Arms .73 -47.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.85 +.34%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.28 -1.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.45 +.41%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.86 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.70 +2.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.48 +.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.75 -5.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.56 -.61%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -5.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.80 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.9 +2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.6 +3.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.4 +1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -6.0 basis points
• 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 78.6% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 201 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -6/100K people
• 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/transport sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Digital Health -2.4% 2) Video Gaming -2.2% 3) Internet -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PRVA, ADPT, U, MA, LCID, NVCR, TWST, ABNB, SQ, TDOC, PCOR, RBLX, TASK, FLYW, DOMO, DASH, BLND, MQ, BLNK, SI, YOU, AUR, IONQ, RXRX, DOCN, ASAN, CRNC and ORMP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AFL 2) RSX 3) NLY 4) DKS 5) CEI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BLNK 2) PTON 3) TMC 4) HOOD 5) ZG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +5.8% 2) Banks +2.5% 3) Energy +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VG, AVYA, ASTR, TMST, AEVA, PCT, GOEV, ROCC, HTZ, TALO, NUE, AOSL, PAG, ALNY, F, TLYS, IDYA, GME, CCRN, CLM, XRX, BCRX, CRF, EGHT, PLL, TSLA, DV, CSCO, BLMN, IEP, SFNC and CSII
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AFL 2) A 3) BW 4) AVYA 5) AMKR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VG 2) STOK 3) ASTR 4) ALNY 5) ACEL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 50.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining
• 100 New 52-Week Highs, 102 New Lows
• 54.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,994.0 +23.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,555 -1.6%
  
• Vix 18.7 +4.1%
• Total Put/Call .71 -10.1%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -32.4%

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Austrians Take to the Streets Against Vaccine Mandate, Lockdown. 
• More Than 10,000 Australians Want Compensation for Vaccine Side Effects: Report.
  
• Europe Revives Lockdowns; Protesters in Vienna: Virus Update.  
• Yemen Rebels Say They Attacked Aramco Refineries, Jeddah Airport.  
• China Junk-Bond Bargain Hunters Trigger 388% Surge in ETF Assets.
• Pictures of Peng Shuai Circulate as Fears for Athlete Mount. 
• Global IPOs Blow Past $600 Billion Mark in Best Year on Record.
• UBS, Deutsche Bank Set the Course for Next Era With New Chairmen.
• Coin Worth $0.00004893 Highlights Crypto’s Wild Decimal Frontier.
• Americans Load Up on Firewood as Home-Heating Costs Skyrocket.  
• Fed Looks Likely to Consider Faster Drawdown in Asset Purchases.  
• ‘Confusing Time’ for Managers Weighing Stock Bubble, Page Says.  
• Garcetti Expects L.A. to Get Billions in Infrastructure Funds.  
• More American Adults Say They Don’t Expect to Have a Child: Poll.  
• Charting the Global Economy: Retail Sales Firm in U.S., China.   
• Texas Democrat Johnson Says She’s Leaving House After 30 Years.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Putin Dispatches Russian Vessels to Shadow U.S. Warships During Flare-Up. 
• Will Joe Manchin Stand His Ground on Inflation? Federal spending is its biggest driver. He has demanded an honest accounting, due this week. 
• With Vaccine Mandate Looming, Business Owners Face Wary Workers.
• Dutch Covid-19 Lockdown Protest Turns Violent.
• Trillions in Assets May Be Left Stranded in Climate-Change Shifts.
• Desperate Parents Turn to Shopping Bots to Hunt for Hottest Christmas Gifts.
• Thanksgiving Is On, and So Is the Hunt for Ingredients.
• IPOs Keep Jumping Higher. How Long Will the Ride Last?
• Enes Kanter: Move the Olympics for Peng Shuai’s Sake. The IOC shockingly echoes Beijing’s rhetoric on the tennis star’s disappearance.
• Businesses Face Wary Workers as Vaccine Mandates Loom.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

CNBC:

• These smart glasses offer a glimpse at the future Apple and Facebook are planning.
• Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse, a new world of advertisements.
  

MarketWatch.com:        

• Opinion: Lore has it that there’s a lull leading up to Santa Claus rallies — here’s what the statistics show.   
• Dutch police open fire on rioters protesting COVID restrictions.

Fox News:

• Hunter Biden in the hot seat again after bombshell report about links to China.
• Woke universities are pushing to cancel Thanksgiving: See their rebranding idea.
• Dem Rep. Velázquez calls Christopher Columbus 'genocidal maniac' on his holiday.
• Major news outlets fail to report on whistleblower BOMBSHELL involving DOJ, FBI targeting parents.
  
• Jordan: Garland needs to explain FBI tracking parents.
• White House loses ANOTHER key staffer amid reports of turmoil.
• Protests erupt from NY to CA after Rittenhouse acquitted on all charges.
• Shoppers fight rising prices, shortages ahead of the first Biden Thanksgiving.
  

Newsmax: 

• Portland Riots Over Rittenhouse Acquittal.
• Rep. Fitzgerald to Newsmax: Bill Is 'Nail in Coffin' for Dems' Reelection Bids.

Zero Hedge: 

• Rotterdam "Transformed Into A War Zone" Amid New COVID Lockdown Protests.
• Boondoggle Democracy For The Elites.
• Fighting "Information Disorder": Aspen's Orwellian Commission On Controlling Speech In America.
• "Something Will Rebalance": Goldman Boss Solomon Warns That Market Greed Is Outpacing Fear.
• The Fed's Moral Hazard Monster Is About To Lay Waste To "Wealth".
• Welcome To The 'New Normal': This Is Going To Be A Holiday Season That None Of Us Will Ever Forget. 
• South Korean Chipmaker SK Hynix Halts Expansion Plans In China Due To U.S. Trade Restrictions.
• "No Turning Point Yet" - Soaring Food Inflation To Continue Into 2022: Commodity Expert.
• Peak Season Over: Container-Ship Arrivals In Southern California Fall.
• Bill Ackman Says We're In A "Classic Bubble" That's "Fueled By The Fed".
• Portland Rittenhouse Protest Escalates Into Riot.
• WSJ Editorial Board Says Choice For Fed Chief Is Between "Tweedledum & Tweedledee".
• Rise In UK Non-COVID Deaths Set To Continue: Cancer Expert. Looking at the recent numbers he predicted that lockdown will, over time, cause large numbers of premature deaths “which will be in people who are generally far younger than the COVID-19 victim average age.”
• Used Car Prices Explode To New Record High.
• Putin Lashes Out At Western Powers For Taking Russia's "Red Lines" Too Lightly.
• Tools In The Service Of Tyranny.
• Where America's International Students Come From.
• China Deems Australia 'No Longer Peaceful', But Now "Saber Wielding" After Sub Deal.
• The Utter Orwellian Stupidity Of Masks On Airplanes.
• Almost 9 In 10 Americans Worried About Inflation.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Massive Freedom Rallies Held Across Australia Today – Huge Numbers of Australians Participate and March for Freedom (VIDEO).
• Biden Regime Ignores Courts Again and Tells Businesses to Move Forward with Vaccine Mandate. 
• Jesse Jackson Leads Chicago March Against Rittenhouse Verdict – Protesters Chant for Communist Revolution (VIDEO).
• HUGE: Protests Against Vaccine Mandates in Italy Reach Their 18th Week As the Rest of Europe Rises Up and Joins In (VIDEO).
• A Short List of Individuals and Entities Kyle Rittenhouse May Consider Suing.
• Travis Scott Hit With Over $2 Billion In Lawsuits In Aftermath Of Astroworld Concert.
• Cook Political Report Moves Three Key Senate Races Towards Republicans.
• Biden Sends FBI to Break Down Door of School Board Activist Sherronna Bishop – Cuff Her in Front of Children (VIDEO). 
• Biden’s FED Pick Can’t Answer Whether She’s a Capitalist or a Socialist.
• 4.4 Million Americans Quit Their Jobs in September Amid Vaccine Coercion, Pandemic Stress.
• HERE WE GO… Milwaukee County Zoo Launches COVID-19 Vaccines Program to “High-Risk” Animals.
• Alan Dershowitz on Media Attacks on Rittenhouse: “These Commentators Just Lied and Committed Defamation – I hope a Lawyer takes the case and Sues Them”.
• Dr. Fauci Spotted Mingling Maskless at Elite DC Book Party.

The Epoch Times:

• Bi-partisan Tech Bill to Protect US Interests Stalls in the House.

MintPressNews.com:

• Revealed: Documents Show Bill Gates Has Given $319 Million to Media Outlets. Recipients of this cash include many of America’s most important news outlets, including CNN, NBC, NPR, PBS and The Atlantic. Gates also sponsors a myriad of influential foreign organizations, including the BBC, The Guardian, The Financial Times and The Daily Telegraph in the United Kingdom; prominent European newspapers such as Le Monde (France), Der Spiegel (Germany) and El País (Spain); as well as big global broadcasters like Al-Jazeera.
• Media reports noted that the Gates Foundation was paying the entertainment giants to insert information & PSAs into its programming and that #BillGates had intervened to change storylines in popular shows like ER & Law & Order: SVU.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).