Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:  
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.53 -.02%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,705.0 +17.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ACN)/2.63
  • (ADBE)/3.20
  • (CCL)/-1.46
  • (JBL)/1.80
  • (WOR)/1.86
After the Close:
  • (FDX)/4.29
  • (NX)/.53
  • (RIVN)/-6.84
  • (SCS)/.09
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 200K versus 184K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1943K versus 1992K prior.
  • Housing Starts for Nov. is estimated to rise to 1567K versus 1520K in Oct.
  • Building Permits for Nov. is estimated to rise to 1663K versus 1650K in Oct.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Dec. is estimated to fall to 29.1 versus 39.0 in Nov.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.6% gain in Oct.
  • Capacity Utilization for Nov. is estimated to rise to 76.8% versus 76.4% in Oct.
  • Manufacturing Production for Nov. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.2% gain in Oct.
9:45 am EST
  • The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 58.5 versus 58.3 in Nov.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 25.0 versus 24.0 in Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BofE rate decision, ECB meeting, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, (ADBE) 4Q financial analyst meeting, (BABA) investor day and the (DAL) capital markets day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower Mid-Day on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed Taper Pace Worries, China Bubble-Bursting Concerns, Consumer Discretionary/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.1 +5.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,330.0 -97.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.11 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.8 +4.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0  +24.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.6 +158.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.83 -.24%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.77 -.30%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 -2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.6 -.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 199.17 +1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 -.63%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.40 -.86%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 78.0 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.6 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
  • 89.5%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 65.2%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 261 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +0/100K people
  • 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 32.8% of Issues Advancing, 62.4% Declining
  • 17 New 52-Week Highs, 160 New Lows
  • 46.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,357.0 -68.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,220 -.19%
  • Vix 22.9 +4.4%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -3.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.6 +146.9%

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 +1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.83 -.04%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,479.0 +52.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 +.58%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABM)/.81
  • (TTC)/.53
After the Close:
  • (HEI)/.58
  • (LEN)/4.15
  • (NDSN)/2.10
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Empire Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 30.9 in Nov.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.7% gain in Oct.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.7% gain in Oct.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Nov. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.4% gain in Oct.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.2% gain in Oct.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.5% gain in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 84.0 versus 83.0 in Nov.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,651,200 barrels versus a -241,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,358,300 barrels versus a +3,882,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by +1,187,500 barrels versus a +2,733,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.44% versus a +1.0% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 0.0-.25%.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC presser, Debt ceiling deadline, UK CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (LOW) 2022 financial outlook webcast, (ABM) investor day, (XP) investor day and the (LLY) investment community meeting could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed Taper Pace Worries, Global Virus Lockdown Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.6 +11.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,379.0 -167.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.03 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.9 +9.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0  +22.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 -2.1%
  • NYSE Arms .61 -54.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.44 +1.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.0 +1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.10 +.22%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.4 +.88%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.17 +1.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.19 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.83 -1.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 77.75 -4.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.3 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.0 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -4.0 basis points
  • 91.9%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 67.0%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 261 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +3/100K people
  • 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.1% 2) Software -4.0% 3) Shipping -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AXNX, ARCC, TOL, FLWS, SPWH, PTY, FWRG, ACI, PTON, IGMS, EVBG, FSK, UPST, PCOR, HOOD, OLO, EPAM, DICE, ENPH, CXM, CDNS, CCCC, CVNA, SPT, FHTX, ADBE, GBT, DDOG, DOCN, SPWR, NOVA, ZS, NET, RUN and BASE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IWP 2) PCG 3) IWO 4) BHC 5) XHB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GBIO 2) WB 3) DDOG 4) ZS 5) ADBE
Charts: