Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Surface-to-Air Missiles Need Chips Too, Pentagon Tells Congress.  
• Ukraine Downgraded by Fitch as ‘Default-Like’ Process Begins.
• ‘Historic’ Correction Grips Canada’s Housing Market, RBC Says.
  
• Verizon Shares Decline Most Since 2008 After Outlook Cut.
• Broken Bulls, Big Breadth: Weighing a Case for a Turn in Stocks.  
• Snap Craters as Sales Disappoint, Erasing $130 Billion From Sector.
• California Governor Calls for No New Gas Plants in Climate Fight.  
• American Airlines Cuts 1,175 Summer Flights to Ease Disruptions.  
• Apartment and Warehouse Deals Start to Sputter as Rates Sting.  
• Public Pensions Face Worst Funding Decline Since Great Recession.  
• Larry Summers Says Raise Taxes ‘Right Now’ to Help Battle Inflation.  
• Consumers Go Down Market to Keep Racking Up Credit Card Debt.  
• Consumer Confidence Drops as Inflation Squeezes US Shoppers. 
• Crypto Stocks Get Boost From Retail Traders Who Drove Meme Craze.

Wall Street Journal:

• Volkswagen’s CEO Ousted After Pivot to Electric Vehicles.
• Snap, Twitter Spark Fears of Broader Ad-Market Decline.
• Europe Is Tested Anew, This Time by Energy, Inflation and Putin.
• Strong U.S. Dollar Sends Ripples Around the World.
• The World Is Thirsty for America’s Natural Gas.

Fox News: 

• White House breaks silence on claims Biden selling US oil from reserves to China as prices soar at home.
• TUCKER CARLSON: Biden should be impeached for sending our natural assets to our enemy China.
• John Kirby dodges question on whether draining strategic oil reserves hurts national security.
• Controversial Dem DA on the ropes with voters suffers second blow in his office.
• Experts slam brakes on Biden admin's claim about electric vehicles.

CNBC:

• Here are the three big reasons there’s an executive exodus at retailers, from Gap to GameStop.
• Biden administration considering public health emergency for monkeypox.
• Apple’s new car software could be a trojan horse into the automotive industry.
• Markets face what could be the most important week of summer with Fed, earnings and economic data.
• Shippers are avoiding the Port of Oakland as trucker protests over gig worker law stop flow of trade.
• Russia slashes key interest rate by 150 basis points in shock move.
• Here’s how to prepare for and thrive in a recession.

Zero Hedge:

• Wall Street's Biggest Bear: One Down, But Two More Things Must Happen Before Stocks Bottom.
• Bannon Found Guilty Of Contempt Of Congress For Defying J6 Subpoena.
• Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman.
• Myth Busted: Trump Ordered Officials To 'Make Sure' J6 Was 'Safe Event'.
• Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays.
• These Are The World's Highest-Grossing Companies.
• Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts.
• It's "Embarrassing" - Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank's Terrible Track-Record.
• Pennsylvania Prohibits 'Zuck Bucks' Ahead Of 2022 Midterms. 
• US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief.
• "Stupid, Delusional" Three Arrows Founders Emerge From Hiding To Discuss Their "Regrettable" Collapse.
• Missouri Sheriff Refuses To Hand Over Gun Owners' Info To FBI: 'I Will Go Down With The Ship'.
• SPX posts best week in a month, despite Friday's losses, ahead of FOMC and Big Tech reports - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & Bitcoin Soar On Week As Dismal Data Drives Dovish Dive In Rate-Hike Odds.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Here are 5 things we’ve learned so far from earnings season.
• It’s the end of ‘fantasyland’ for Big Tech and its workers.

NewsMax:

• House Dems Nix Resolution Condemning Attacks on Churches, Pro-life Groups.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Steve Bannon Blasts “Gutless” January 6 Committee Members After Jury Returns Guilty Verdict in Contempt Trial (VIDEO).
• White House Covid Czar Says Joe Biden Ate His Breakfast and Lunch Fully: “He Showed Me His Plate!”… Like a 3-Year-Old Child (VIDEO).
• Biden Energy Secretary CHEERS Record Gas Prices, Destruction of US Middle Class: “We’re Witnessing Beginning of One of Most Significant Events in Human History”.
• China’s Economy Falling Apart – Billionaires Want Out – Bankrupt Property Management Company Evergrande Replaces CEO.
•  WAYNE ROOT: 33 Dead & Sick Friends Since Our Wedding Only 8 Months Ago. All 33 Vaxxed. A “Vaccine Death & Disease Cluster.”.
• Biden at Higher Risk for Stroke as Doctor Stops Blood Thinner Due to Paxlovid Treatment for COVID.
• Former South Carolina Quarterback MVP Phil Petty Dies at 43 — Third Former Football Player to Die in Last 7 Days.
• Exclusive: Joe Biden Is Filling Up Maine Hotels to House His Illegal Migrants — Illegals Get Better Government Freebies than Low Income US Workers.
• Medical Examiner Reveals 24-Year-Old Ex-Miami Hurricanes Football Player Died of a Heart Attack.
• BREAKING: DOJ Working on Hunter Biden Plea Deal Despite Millions from China, Russia, Ukraine, etc. When His Dad was Obama’s VP — While Jan 6 Protesters Rot in DC Gulag.
• FLASHBACK: IT and Data Experts in Georgia Uncovered 200,000 Votes Switched from President Trump or Deleted, Another Million Suspicious Votes, Yet Raffensperger Certified Results for Biden.
• SHOCKING: On November 4th, 2020, Georgia Showed 100% Reporting.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.3 +.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65% -47.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,044.0 -248.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.20 -.84%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.2 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +12.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.99 +83.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.85 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 501.24 +.74%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 464.0 -20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.83 -3.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 158.97 -3.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 354.39 +.27%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 +.15%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,472.0 -8.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 37.25 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.62 +.81%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.93 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -64.40 -4.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -92.20 -30.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.9 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 58.2%(+17.8 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 46.4%(+17.9 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -71.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -214 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -65 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.2% 2) Internet -4.1% 3) Disk Drives -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WIRE, T, LAD, MU, GMED, SHYF, IIPR, NVST, PACW, MORF, DV, WING, RYTM, NVDA, CRSR, ELF, AEHR, RIVN, MRVL, DOMO, COF, WDC, GOOG, SAVA, GOOGL, CLF, ALGN, COIN, MAT, RHI, XM, VERV, CELH, DASH, AGL, CDLX, SNOW, ISRG, SI, VITL, VZ, BLNK, META, RLAY, DT, GME, GNTX, TTD, MARA, AMC, CDMO, AFRM, U, ROKU, AMN, AI, SKYT, PINS, SIGA, SIVB and CCRN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HCA 2) SNAP 3) NCR 4) ISRG 5) GOOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNAP 2) PINS 3) STX 4) VZ 5) COIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.1% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Shipping +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HCA, UFPI, VICR, THC, POOL and TH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COF 2) ATUS 3) ISRG 4) SNAP 5) AXP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AAMC 2) UFPI 3) HCA 4) THC 5) SLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 35.5% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 20.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,035.0 -257.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,641.0 -.57%
  
• Vix 22.7 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .95 +2.2%
• TRIN/Arms 2.0 +74.1%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• US Says Russia Oil Cap Needed as EU Sanctions Not Yet Priced In.  
• Yuan Shorts Gather Pace on Lockdown Threat, Property-Sector Risk.
• Japan’s Inflation Picks Up Speed to Keep Pressure on BOJ.  
• Hong Kong Faces First Prime Rate Hike Since 2018 on Hawkish Fed.  
  
• UK Consumer Confidence Languishes at 48-Year low, Survey Finds.
  
• Snap’s Drop Cools Stock Optimism Before Asia Open: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Longest Run of Declines This Year.
• J&J Invest Raises Naver Bet, Stays Faithful to Korea Tech Stocks.  
• It’s Not You, It’s Inflation: How Soaring Prices Are Changing the Dating Game.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The False ‘Green Jobs’ Promise. Ford may lay off 8,000 workers to meet its federal electric-vehicle mandate.
• Supreme Court Rules Against Biden Administration’s Immigration Enforcement Guidelines3 min read.
• FedEx to Suspend Sunday Delivery in Some Markets.
• Turkey, U.N. Officials Say Deal Reached on Ukraine Grain Exports.
• Staff at HSBC’s China Securities Arm Set Up Communist Unit.
• Seven Crypto Companies That Laid Off Employees This Summer.

CNBC.com:

• Snap shares plunge 25% on disappointing second-quarter results and plans to slow hiring.
• San Francisco’s slow recovery from Covid has left local businesses ‘hanging on’ for tech’s return.
• Social media and online ad stocks drop in wake of alarming Snap earnings report.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snap, Meta Platforms, Mattel and more.
• Consumers are paying an average $10,000 above ‘normal’ prices for used cars, research shows.

MarketWatch:         

• Stock market turbulence may not be scaring off retail investors: ‘We’re not seeing investors respond the way they typically have’.
  
• How Amazon’s $3.9 billion wager on primary care could change your Prime membership.
  
• Opinion: ‘People will freak out’ — The cloud boom is coming back to earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks.

Zero Hedge: 

• Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
• "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges.
• US "Started" The Ukraine Crisis, China Says, In Fiercest Official Criticism Yet.
• Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash. 
• "Let's Tap The Brakes" - America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree.
• Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis.
• New York And DC Democrats Complain That They Are Being Overloaded With Illegal Immigrants.
• Daily Briefing: Are We Fated to Stagflation?
• Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'.
• A Veteran Explains Why People Aren't Joining The Military.
• Dr. Birx Admits She And Fauci Made Up 'The Science' On Lockdowns, Social Distancing.
• US stocks gained after weak data triggered a rally in treasuries and pressured yields - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Trucker Protest Halts Cargo Flow At Port Of Oakland.
• Pritzker Honed His Presidential Stump Speech In Florida... With Hatred And Dishonesty.
• SNAP Craters 25% After Reporting Weakest-Ever Growth, Removes Q3 Guidance, Drags Down All "Socials".
• Duration/tech rally after poor US data offsets ECB's hawkish hike - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Watch: Dems Openly Admit Gun Control Bill Will Confiscate Firearms In "Common Use".
• Greenwich Housing Market "Is Returning To Earth".
• The Digital US Dollar Is A Threat To Civil Liberties.
• Bonds & Big-Tech Surge As Ugly Data Hammers Rate-Hike Hopes.

Newsmax:

• CIA Director: Putin 'Entirely Too Healthy'.
• Fla. AG: Fentanyl Is a 'Weapon of Mass Destruction'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Kamala Harris Smiles and Giggles While Talking About Joe Biden Getting COVID (Video).
• BREAKING: Wisconsin Election Commission Announces They Will IGNORE New Ruling and Allow Clerks to Cure and Count Incomplete Mail-in Ballots.
• Italian PM Mario Draghi Officially Resigns, Becomes FIFTH Leader to Abandon Ship As Governments around the World Begin to Collapse Under Weight of the “Great Reset”.
• Wives and Widows Call on “Woke” Communities to Stop Funding BLM and Support Communities Destroyed and Forever Altered by Their Lies.
• Mississippi Man and J-6 Political Prisoner Faces MORE THAN 20 YEARS IN PRISON After Conviction of Made-Up Felony Charge of “Obstruction of Official Proceeding” and Four MISDEMEANORS!
• Is She Running Again? Hillary Clinton Tweets Cryptic Photo Shortly After Joe Biden’s Covid Diagnosis Announced.
• CONFIRMED: US Open Prohibits Novak Djokovic from Playing Because He Refused to Take Experimental Covid-19 Shot.
• Pelosi Walks Away After Reporter Confronts Her on Husband’s Stock Purchases (VIDEO).
• ESPN Awards Turncoat Skier Eileen Gu – Breakthrough Athlete of the Year – After Winning Olympic Gold for Communist China But Growing Up Here in US.
• Former Offensive Lineman for Notre Dame Dies at 35 Due to Cardiac Arrest While on a Run.

 The Epoch Times: 

• DC Rally Urges ‘Aggressive Actions’ by Congress to End CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners.
• Nearly 60 Percent of Americans Want TikTok Removed From App Stores: Poll.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.75 -9.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 +1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.86 -.15%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,433.0 +133.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.69%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXP)/2.41
• (ALV)/.36
• (CLF)/1.29
• (GNTX)/.38
• (HCA)/3.71
• (NEE)/.75
• (RF)/.53
• (SLB)/.40
• (TWTR)/.14
• (VZ)/1.33
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST:

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for July is estimated at 52.7 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global Composite PMI for July is estimated to rise to 52.4 versus 52.3 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GME) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.