Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• US Says Russia Oil Cap Needed as EU Sanctions Not Yet Priced In.  
• Yuan Shorts Gather Pace on Lockdown Threat, Property-Sector Risk.
• Japan’s Inflation Picks Up Speed to Keep Pressure on BOJ.  
• Hong Kong Faces First Prime Rate Hike Since 2018 on Hawkish Fed.  
  
• UK Consumer Confidence Languishes at 48-Year low, Survey Finds.
  
• Snap’s Drop Cools Stock Optimism Before Asia Open: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Longest Run of Declines This Year.
• J&J Invest Raises Naver Bet, Stays Faithful to Korea Tech Stocks.  
• It’s Not You, It’s Inflation: How Soaring Prices Are Changing the Dating Game.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The False ‘Green Jobs’ Promise. Ford may lay off 8,000 workers to meet its federal electric-vehicle mandate.
• Supreme Court Rules Against Biden Administration’s Immigration Enforcement Guidelines3 min read.
• FedEx to Suspend Sunday Delivery in Some Markets.
• Turkey, U.N. Officials Say Deal Reached on Ukraine Grain Exports.
• Staff at HSBC’s China Securities Arm Set Up Communist Unit.
• Seven Crypto Companies That Laid Off Employees This Summer.

CNBC.com:

• Snap shares plunge 25% on disappointing second-quarter results and plans to slow hiring.
• San Francisco’s slow recovery from Covid has left local businesses ‘hanging on’ for tech’s return.
• Social media and online ad stocks drop in wake of alarming Snap earnings report.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snap, Meta Platforms, Mattel and more.
• Consumers are paying an average $10,000 above ‘normal’ prices for used cars, research shows.

MarketWatch:         

• Stock market turbulence may not be scaring off retail investors: ‘We’re not seeing investors respond the way they typically have’.
  
• How Amazon’s $3.9 billion wager on primary care could change your Prime membership.
  
• Opinion: ‘People will freak out’ — The cloud boom is coming back to earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks.

Zero Hedge: 

• Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
• "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges.
• US "Started" The Ukraine Crisis, China Says, In Fiercest Official Criticism Yet.
• Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash. 
• "Let's Tap The Brakes" - America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree.
• Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis.
• New York And DC Democrats Complain That They Are Being Overloaded With Illegal Immigrants.
• Daily Briefing: Are We Fated to Stagflation?
• Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'.
• A Veteran Explains Why People Aren't Joining The Military.
• Dr. Birx Admits She And Fauci Made Up 'The Science' On Lockdowns, Social Distancing.
• US stocks gained after weak data triggered a rally in treasuries and pressured yields - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Trucker Protest Halts Cargo Flow At Port Of Oakland.
• Pritzker Honed His Presidential Stump Speech In Florida... With Hatred And Dishonesty.
• SNAP Craters 25% After Reporting Weakest-Ever Growth, Removes Q3 Guidance, Drags Down All "Socials".
• Duration/tech rally after poor US data offsets ECB's hawkish hike - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Watch: Dems Openly Admit Gun Control Bill Will Confiscate Firearms In "Common Use".
• Greenwich Housing Market "Is Returning To Earth".
• The Digital US Dollar Is A Threat To Civil Liberties.
• Bonds & Big-Tech Surge As Ugly Data Hammers Rate-Hike Hopes.

Newsmax:

• CIA Director: Putin 'Entirely Too Healthy'.
• Fla. AG: Fentanyl Is a 'Weapon of Mass Destruction'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Kamala Harris Smiles and Giggles While Talking About Joe Biden Getting COVID (Video).
• BREAKING: Wisconsin Election Commission Announces They Will IGNORE New Ruling and Allow Clerks to Cure and Count Incomplete Mail-in Ballots.
• Italian PM Mario Draghi Officially Resigns, Becomes FIFTH Leader to Abandon Ship As Governments around the World Begin to Collapse Under Weight of the “Great Reset”.
• Wives and Widows Call on “Woke” Communities to Stop Funding BLM and Support Communities Destroyed and Forever Altered by Their Lies.
• Mississippi Man and J-6 Political Prisoner Faces MORE THAN 20 YEARS IN PRISON After Conviction of Made-Up Felony Charge of “Obstruction of Official Proceeding” and Four MISDEMEANORS!
• Is She Running Again? Hillary Clinton Tweets Cryptic Photo Shortly After Joe Biden’s Covid Diagnosis Announced.
• CONFIRMED: US Open Prohibits Novak Djokovic from Playing Because He Refused to Take Experimental Covid-19 Shot.
• Pelosi Walks Away After Reporter Confronts Her on Husband’s Stock Purchases (VIDEO).
• ESPN Awards Turncoat Skier Eileen Gu – Breakthrough Athlete of the Year – After Winning Olympic Gold for Communist China But Growing Up Here in US.
• Former Offensive Lineman for Notre Dame Dies at 35 Due to Cardiac Arrest While on a Run.

 The Epoch Times: 

• DC Rally Urges ‘Aggressive Actions’ by Congress to End CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners.
• Nearly 60 Percent of Americans Want TikTok Removed From App Stores: Poll.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.75 -9.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 +1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.86 -.15%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,433.0 +133.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.69%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXP)/2.41
• (ALV)/.36
• (CLF)/1.29
• (GNTX)/.38
• (HCA)/3.71
• (NEE)/.75
• (RF)/.53
• (SLB)/.40
• (TWTR)/.14
• (VZ)/1.33
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST:

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for July is estimated at 52.7 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global Composite PMI for July is estimated to rise to 52.4 versus 52.3 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GME) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.