Stocks Slightly Lower into Close on Rising Long-Term Rates, Increasing Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -5.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .95% unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,644.0 +238.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.47 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 -3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +14.8%

• NYSE Arms .85 +80.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.4 -3.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 506.94 -2.76%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 494.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 128.22 -.47%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.58 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 344.44 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.22%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13,737.6 +21.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 55.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  140.75 -.25 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.75 -.02%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -2.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.80 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.7 +7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.3 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 66.9%(-12.7 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 49.1%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 231 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.8%(+.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +308 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long