Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• French Minister Says Russian Gas Cutoff Most Likely Scenario. 
• Almost 4.5 Million UK Families are in Serious Financial Trouble.  
• Europe’s Rush to Buy Africa’s Natural Gas Draws Cries of Hypocrisy.  
• China Stimulus Unlikely to Reverse Global Metals Meltdown.  
• China’s Bumper Data Week Will Set Tone for Economic Stimulus.  
• Chinese Bank Depositors Face Police in Angry Protest.
• Biden’s Quest for Saudi Oil Faces Reality-Check of Slim Capacity.
• Biden-Xi Call Likely to Take Place in Coming Weeks, Blinken Says.  
• Blinken Blasts China’s Support for Russia, Calls Out Xi.  
• Rice Faces Squeeze on Higher Fertilizer Costs and Booming Demand.
  
• Canada Will Return Sanctioned Nord Stream Turbine to Germany.
  
• Japan Ruling Bloc Easily Wins Vote Held Days After Abe’s Murder.
  
• Biden Says No Decision Made on Rolling Back China Import Tariffs.  
• US Futures, Oil Dip; Stocks Set for Cautious Open: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Dips at Start of Week as Economic Slowdown Hangs Over Market.
• Is a Recession Coming? Investors Turn to Earnings for Clues. 
• Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds.   
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• For the Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s. While markets have rallied on expectations central bank will respond to recession risk, that might not be enough if inflation is stubborn.
• Sri Lankan President to Resign as Protesters Storm Residence.
• Sri Lanka Crisis Flashes Warning for Other Indebted Economies.
• Stocks Face Test as Inflation Looms Over Earnings Season.
• Tech’s Red-Hot Hiring Spree Shows Signs of Cooling.
• Manufacturers Brace for Nord Stream Repairs, Fearing Pipeline Won’t Reopen.
• Fed Up With China, One Boss Tries Removing It From the Supply Chain.
• Freight Rates Are Starting to Fall as Shipping Demand Wavers.
• Reddit Traders Haven't Given Up On GameStop. Neither Have Short Sellers.
• Abe’s Goal of Revising Japan Constitution Moves Closer After Party’s Election Victory.
• Congress to Juggle China Bill, Democrats’ Climate and Drug-Pricing Ambitions.

Fox News:

• WATCH: Biden voters regret backing the President as inflation surges, 'Marxist' policies take toll.
• Biden 'surrendered energy independence on day one' and made US more vulnerable, says former Home Depot CEO.
• Hundreds of state workers resign over return-to-office policy. 
• Economist issues ominous warning to Americans about upcoming inflation numbers.
• New poll shows inflation ranks as biggest concern to Americans over abortion, guns.

CNBC:

• How much money it takes to be ‘financially comfortable’ in 12 major U.S. cities.
• Another hot inflation report and the start of earnings season make for a challenging week ahead.
• Top Wall Street analysts say these stocks have the best long-term value.
• Sri Lanka opposition hopes to install new government amid turmoil. 
• ‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ pulls in $143 million in domestic opening.
• Biden says he’s mulling health emergency for abortion access.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Bank Run Turns Violent After Angry Crowd Storms Bank of China Branch Over Frozen Deposits.
• French, German Leaders Warn Populations "Prepare For Total Cut-Off Of Russian Gas" As Social Unrest Looms.
• Red States Chart Faster Economic Recovery Than Blue States.
• Housing Crisis Worsens As Affordability Reaches Record Low.
• Biden’s Selling Of Oil From Reserve To Hunter Biden-Tied Chinese Firm 'Impeachable': Republicans. 
• Tyranny On Autopilot: LA County Set To Resume Mask Mandate.
• Knives Out: WaPo, NYT Go For Biden Blood In Scathing Moment Of Honesty.
• The Façade Of California's Economy Is About To Crumble.
• Army General Suspended Over Tweet To Jill Biden: "Glad You Finally Know What A Woman Is".
• Explosion Rocks Oklahoma Natural Gas Plant.
• 'Rationality Itself Is Under Attack': CEO Of The Babylon Bee.
• Morgan Stanley: Soaring Dollar Will Crush Earnings Growth And Snuff The Rally In Stocks.
• "Your Gas Guzzler Kills" - Radical Climate Group Deflates Bay Area SUV Tires.
• Now An Outbreak Of The Marburg Virus Has Begun.
• Europe's Big And Expensive Energy Mistake.
• New Survey Reveals Significant Doubts About Masks And Vaccines.
• US Senators Meet With Ukrainian President, Discuss Designating Russia As "State Sponsor Of Terrorism"
• Former Federal 'Informant' Warned Of Antifa, BLM Infiltrators At Capitol On Jan. 6.
• Shinzo Abe's Murder Suspect Claims Motive Of His Attack.
• Goldman Trading Desk End-Of-Week Summary: Massive CTA Demand Coming In.

MarketWatch.com:              

• These companies hopped on the crypto train when times were booming. Which are exposed in a downturn?

NewsMax:    

• Ben Carson: Learn Lessons From Past COVID Mandates.
• Ukraine: 15 Dead in Rocket Attack on Apartment Building. 
• Texas AG Demands Biden Apologize Over Mounted Border Agents Controversy.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• DC Antifa Group Offering Reward for Locations of Conservative Supreme Court Justices.
• While NATO Maps Out It’s Plans for World War III — Russian State Space Corporation Releases Coordinates of Western Targets and Mock Joe Biden.
• Biden’s Claim Of 10-Year-Old Who Had To Cross State Lines For Abortion Is Called Into Question By Fact-Checkers.
• Zelenskyy Consolidates Ukrainian TV Outlets Into One State Channel After Abolishing Opposition Party and Seizing Its Assets.
• Short Video Clips from President Trump’s Record-Setting Rally in Anchorage, Alaska.
• MUST WATCH: Dr. Discusses New Study That Shows Pfizer’s Covid mRNA Vaccines Can MODIFY DNA in the Human Genome (VIDEO).
• Can’t Make This Up: Pfizer Asks Court to Dismiss Whistleblower Lawsuit. 
• BREAKING: TRUMP WAIVES EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE — Steve Bannon Willing to Testify Before Sham Jan. 6 Committee of “Thugs and Hacks” — IT’S ABOUT TO GET REAL!
• WATCH: Mom Throws Herself on Hood of Car After Carjacker Steals It With Her Children Inside.
• Sen. Ron Johnson: The FBI Had Hunter Biden’s Computer Since Dec. 2019 – They Havent “Done Squat With It” (VIDEO).
• SHOCKING VIDEO: San Francisco Children Get Off Bus in Open Air Drug Market Filled With Homeless Addicts to Get Home From School.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s COVID Lockdowns Inflict ‘Psychological Scars’ and ‘Endless Humiliation’: Shanghai Resident.
• China Is More Likely to Attack India Than Taiwan in Near Future: Author.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.75 -2.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 80.0 -1.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,741.0 +101.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.6 +.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.28%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.44%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AZZ)/1.01
• (GBX)/.59
  

After the Close:

• (PEP)/1.74
• (PSMT)/.82
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan PPI report and the 3Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.