Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Hawkish FOMC Commentary, US Dollar Weakness, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.6 -4.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .49% -16.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,700.0 +6.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.2 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 +3.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 -1.0%

• NYSE Arms .99 -25.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.60 -4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 489.93 -.45%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 497.0 +28.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.42 -3.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 238.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 156.32 +3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 356.74 -3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.58 +.36%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12,427.0 +2.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 30.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 basis points +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.56 +.10%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.89 +.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -25.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -53.50 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -94.70 -.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.0 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 50.7%(+13.4 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.5%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 273 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.7%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -69.8%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long