Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

• Russia Targets Europe With a Commodity Weapon: Kazakh Crude.  
• Ukraine Doubts Deal to Unblock Grain Exports Will Happen Soon.
• Defiant Boris Johnson Refuses to Quit, Fires Key UK Minister.  
• Ukraine Latest: NATO Expansion; Kyiv Casts Doubts on Grain Deal.
• Stocks Climb in Asia as Crude Remains Below $100: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Extends Its Losses as Growth Concerns Stoke Two-Day Decline.  
• Copper Crash Deepens as Recession Fears Loom Over Metals Trading.
• Fed Sees ‘More Restrictive’ Rates Possible If Inflation Persists.
• Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire.
  
• US, Allies Discuss Capping Russian Oil at $40-$60 a Barrel to Cut War Revenue.  
• Roaring US Rental Market Shows Early Signs of Slowing Down.
• Musk Slated to Address Annual Sun Valley Gathering of the Elite.  
• Democrats Running in GOP-Leaning Ohio Snub Biden, Again.  
• Crypto Lender Genesis Confirms Exposure to Bankrupt Three Arrows Capital.
• Never-Ending Stock Market Churn Keeps Pushing Bottom Targets Lower.
• Michael Burry Sees Inflation Sticking Around as Geopolitical Turmoil Drives US Manufacturing.

Wall Street Journal:     

• Millions of Covid Vaccine Doses Being Thrown Away Amid Flagging Demand.
• Russia’s Tactical Shift in Ukraine Raises Prospect of Protracted War.
• Boris Johnson Left Clinging to Post as More U.K. Ministers Quit.
• Fed Takes Stricter Stance in Speeding Interest Rate Rise.
• That Fancy College Course? It Might Come From a For-Profit Education Contractor.

Fox News:

• Pastor in Democrat-run city demands 'same level of attention' for unseen victims as nearby parade horror.
  
• Chicago sees 37 people shot, 7 killed, in bloody July 4 weekend.

CNBC.com:

• Fed sees ‘more restrictive’ policy as likely if inflation fails to come down, minutes say.
• Treasury yields jump as Fed hints at another big hike at next meeting.
• Biden administration plans to make sweeping changes to ‘broken’ student loan system.
• There’s a battle over inflation-linked pay adding to European port contagion.
• GM reports worst sales in China since onset of Covid-19 lockdowns.
• The job market is still ‘red hot’ despite recession fears, as the Great Resignation continues.
• Op-Ed: Energy supply fears have Europe in a panic as it tries to avert a full-blown crisis. 
  

MarketWatch:           

• Fed officials in June resolute in tightening into ‘restrictive’ territory despite risk of slower growth.
• Opinion: What’s your plan for surviving the bear market? This investing pro with 50 years of experience has some tips.  
• ‘Peak inflation is not here yet’: Rents continue to rise, putting pressure on would-be homebuyers. That’s bad news for the Fed.  
• Here’s the loophole that makes the U.S. housing market more wobbly than it appears.
  
• Here’s how far house prices are set to fall as rates go up, according to this forecasting firm.

Zero Hedge:

• Mass Shooting By Two Illegal Immigrants In Richmond Foiled by Tipster: Police.
• Investors Take Bitcoin Off Exchanges As Crypto Winter Settles In.
• Corporate Media Insists Eating Insects Is "Really Delicious".
• Most Americans Say Federal Government Actions Are Hurting Them: Poll.
• Real-Time Indicator Shows Manhattan Housing Market Quickly Cooling.
• Biden's Green Agenda Is Causing US Power Grid To Be "Incredibly Vulnerable". 
• Tesla China Sales For June Come In At About 78,000 Vehicles, Up 142% Sequentially.
• San Diego Loses 22% Of Its Police Force Due To Vax Mandates.
• US Deploys F-35 Stealth Fighters To South Korea For Joint Military Drills.
• All about commodities, MOVE(s) and Fed.
• Top Democrats, Staffers Fume Over White House's Chaotic Impotence.
• "Very Unusual Situation": 2% Of All Global Freight Is At A Standstill In North Sea Due To Historic Congestion.
• US Marines Ask Court For Relief From COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• WTI Extends Losses After Unexpected Crude Build.
• Stocks bounce and bonds sold; mixed data and damp squib FOMC minutes - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Drop, Dollar Pops As Fed Confirms Hawkish Stance.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Georgia Guidestones Monument BOMBED at 4 AM… Structure Represents New World Order Calls for Significantly Smaller Human Population.
• Halifax Bank’s Woke Pronoun Policy and Bullying of Customers Leads to Mass Exodus of Clients.
• Richmond Police Say a Tip Helped Them Thwart Planned Mass Shooting on Fourth of July by Two ‘Non-American Citizens’.
• JUST IN: White House Comms Director Kate Bedingfield Leaving Post as Biden’s Poll Numbers Crater.
• NEW: Uvalde Police Officer Who Had Clear Shot to Take Out Ramos Before He Entered Robb Elementary School Asked Supervisor For Permission to Shoot but Got No Answer.
• EXCLUSIVE: “Arizona Is Under Attack.” – Trump-Endorsed AZ Gubernatorial Candidate Kari Lake’s New Ad Exposes Invasion At Arizona’s Southern Border (VIDEO).
• DOE Employee Alleges Gender Fluid Drag Queen into Kink and Pups Did Not Meet Qualifications to Be Deputy Secretary in Nuclear Energy Department.
• EU Parliament Declares Nuclear Power And Natural Gas As “Green” Energy.
• Woke National Teachers Union Agenda Includes Mandatory Masks, Vaccines and Banning the Words Mother and Father.
• George Soros Declares War on Supreme Court and Republican Party: “Enemies of Democracy”.
• Lawless Biden Regime Sues Arizona To Block Law Requiring Voters to Prove US Citizenship to Vote. 
• Pfizer’s Investor Call Reveals The Company’s Plan To Capitalize On Its Failed COVID Drugs For Years.

The Epoch Times: 

• Trump Says Biden Administration’s Talk of Lifting China Tariffs Is ‘Terrible Mistake’.
• Evidence Points to China Ramping Up Forced Organ Harvesting From Uyghurs: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 837,191 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.24% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.75 -2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.96 -.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,164.0 +47.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.4 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HELE)/2.00
  

After the Close:

• (LEVI)/.23
• (WDFC)/1.28
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for June.
  

8:30 am EST:

• The Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$84.7B versus -$87.1B in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 230K versus 231K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1330K versus 1328
  

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,152,670 barrels versus a -2,762,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -692,830 barrels versus a +2,645,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,018,830 barrels versus a +2,559,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.12% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.