Stocks Closing Slightly Higher on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.6 +.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,906.0 -361.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.24 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.2 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +38.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.1 +33.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.22 -.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 549.09 +1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 486.0 +21.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.12 +3.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 198.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.35 +.29%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 342.92 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 -.96%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,816.70 +7.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 basis points -5.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 64.0 basis points +9.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 basis points +4.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.40 +.04%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.43 -1.7%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.68% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve .25 basis point (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.95 USD/Metric Tonne -4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -69.3 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.5 -13.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.5 +5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 80.5%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 63.8%(+12.2 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 202 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -12/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.7%(-2.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -222 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -121 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +117 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long