Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Biden Close to Rollback of Chinese Tariffs to "Fight Inflation".  
• South Korea’s Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1998 Ahead of BOK Decision.  
• Inflation Expectations Hit Record in Bank of Canada Surveys.  
• Vital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes Into 2023.  
• BOJ Is Likely to Raise Price Forecast, Ex-Chief Economist Says.  
• Lockdown Pain Fails to Break Elderly Vaccine Resistance in China.  
• UK’s Biggest Pawnbroker Sees Demand Soar Amid Living Cost Crisis.  
• ECB’s Nagel Warns Crisis-Tool Use Can Lead to ‘Dire Straits’.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Putin Gives Troops a Rest After Taking Key City.
  
• Shippers Still Willing to Touch Russian Crude Oil Are Cashing In.  
• Energy Firms in Canada Keep Spending Tight Despite High Prices.
  
• US Futures Advance Amid China Tariff Speculation: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Gains as Traders Grapple With Tight Supplies, Demand Cuts.
  
• Tesla Pauses Plants After Ending Shaky Quarter With a Production Milestone.  
• The Age of Peak TV Is Ending. An Age of Austerity Is Beginning.

Wall Street Journal:

• Demand for Chips Eases as Sales of PCs Slow.
• Glut of Goods at Target, Walmart Is a Boon for Liquidators.
• Germany Hit With First Trade Deficit in Over Three Decades.
• Ukraine War Lessons: You Can’t Hide, Weapons Stockpiles Are Essential.
• Why the Rush for Toddler Vaccines? Covid was clearly a health emergency for adults in 2020. By contrast, the urgency now feels political.
• Bidenomics 101. The President doesn’t appear to know anything about how the private economy works.
• Biden Has to Choose: Climate Change or Human Rights in China. Electric-car batteries and solar panels rely on raw materials produced with forced and child labor.
• A Rude Awakening Is Ahead for Young Employees. A recession will hand the bargaining power to their bosses.
• Coal Makes a Comeback as the World Thirsts for Energy.
• Venture Capital Feels the Stock Market’s Pain.
• China Imposes Fresh Restrictions as Covid-19 Cases Rise.

Fox News:

• 'Armed and dangerous' suspect sought in Illinois parade massacre has dark past on social media.
• Highland Park shooting person of interest description, name released after July 4 parade attack.
• Woke Hollywood elites rally social media protests against Independence Day.

CNBC:

• Tired of swiping left, singles are turning to new matchmaking services for dates.
• The G-7 is considering a price cap on Russian oil. But energy analysts think it’s impossible.
• Another crypto lender Vauld pauses withdrawals as market crash takes its toll.
• Americans hoping for European vacations this summer should prepare for one thing: Chaos.
• Bezos slams Biden’s call for gasoline stations to cut prices.

Zero Hedge:

• EU President 'Can't Find' Texts With Pfizer Chief Discussing COVID-19 Vaccine.
• Twitter 'Silenced' Physicians Who Posted Truthful Information About COVID, Lawsuit Alleges.
• Police Announce 22-Year-Old Suspect In Chicago Suburb Shooting That Left 6 Dead.
• Dutch Protesters Pour Manure On Government Offices Over Industry-Killing Regulations.
• Dear America, Happy Birthday, Kind Regards From The Brits.
• US stock index futures were lacklustre and US cash markets closed for the Independence Day. holiday - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Biden's Job Approval Enters Marianas Trench.
• German Energy Giant In Talks Over €9 Billion Bailout Package.
• Declare Your Independence From Tyranny, America.
• Despite Opposition From His Closest Advisors And Supporters, Biden Expected To Roll Back China Tariffs As Soon As This Week.
• American Pride Hits New Low.
• White House Quiet As BBQ Inflation Roils Americans On July 4.
• 100-Year-Old Veteran Laments "This Is Not The Country We Fought For".
• Key Events This Week: All Eyes On Payrolls.
• Rabobank: Global Recession?
• Are US Weapons Supplied To Ukraine Ending Up On DarkNet Marketplaces?
• This 4th Of July: Requiem For Freedoms Long Gone?
• 'We The People' Need To Stand Up For Our Nation.
• Von Greyerz: This Implosion Will Be Fast... Hold On To Your Seats.

MarketWatch.com:              

• With prices skirting a 17-month low, Dr Copper’s prognosis about the global economy is downbeat.
  
• European natural gas prices surge as Norwegian outage adds to supply woes.
  
• German regulator warns of possible gas shortage; Hamburg may ration hot water..  
• Opinion: Stocks could drop 50%, Nouriel Roubini argues. Things will get much worse before they get better.

NewsMax:    

• Suspect ID'd, at Large After 6 Are Fatally Shot at July 4 Parade in a Chicago Suburb.
• Rep. Cloud: Border Situation an Invasion.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Judge Gives Go-Ahead to Dominion to Sue FOX, OAN Despite Recent Report that Identifies Massive System Vulnerabilities in Dominion Systems That May Have Been Previously Exploited.
• Mitt Romney Attacks Trump in Scathing July 4 Op-Ed, Praises Joe Biden as a ‘Genuinely Good Man’.
• ANOTHER BIDEN RECORD: Over 728 Migrants Died Crossing Open Border Into the US in 2021 (VIDEO).
• Chicago’s Extreme Gun Control Hasn’t Stopped 60 being Shot And 15 Dead This Weekend.
• In the End, It Will Be the Decision of the American People to Fight for our Constitutional Republic or Submit to Tyranny – The Time Is Now.
• White House Doubles Down and UNLOADS on Jeff Bezos Following his Criticism of Biden’s Cluelessness of Basic Market Dynamics.
• BREAKING: Danish Mall Shooter Identified – 22-Year-Old Noah Esbensen — He Posted Weird Gun Videos on YouTube On Saturday Before Shooting.
• Eat Bugs and Live in a Pod: South African Entrepreneur Says Caterpillars Are “A Healthier Option” Than Steak in Latest Push to Convince People to Eat Bugs.

The Epoch Times:

• Fight to Control COVID-19 Narrative Sees Intensified Persecution of Falun Gong in China: Nonprofit Director.
• How the Chinese Military Is Buying American AI Chips: Report.
• House Republicans Seek to Designate June a ‘Month of Life’ in Celebration of Supreme Court Ruling.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.25 +2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 85.5 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.3 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,346.0 +78.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.3 -.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.2%.
• S&P 500 futures +.50%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.74%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report, China Services PMI report, RBA Rate Sentiment and the Eurozone Services PMI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.