Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Official Sees Curbs on Exports to Russia as Template for China.
• China Warns Taiwan Visit by Pelosi Would Have ‘Grave Impact’.  
• Rich Chinese Worth $48 Billion Want to Leave — But Will Xi Let Them?   
• UK Consumers Starting to Doubt Quality of Food at Supermarkets.
  
• Asian Steel Markets Hit by Inflows of Cheap Russian Metal.  
• Roaring Inflation, Weak Currencies to Spur Rate Hikes in Africa.
• SEC’s Gensler Says It’s Unclear If China Will Avoid Delistings.
• Stock Rally Set to Extend to Asia Amid Dollar Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Lower as Traders Assess Stockpiles, Outlook for Dollar.
  
• Retail Investors Pile into Currency Trading as Euro Slides to Parity With Dollar.
  
• Feasting Shorts Are Last Stock Faction to Be Dealt Comeuppance.
  
• Novogratz Says He Was ‘Darn Wrong’ on Crypto Leverage Risks.  
• Chipotle Workers File Complaint With NLRB After Store Closure.  
• The Big Tech Apples May Have Further to Fall.

Wall Street Journal:     

• Europe Fears a Long, Cold Winter if Russia Ends Supply of Natural Gas.
• One Hedge Fund Is Up 223% After Betting Against Tech.
• Cathie Wood’s ARK to Close Transparency ETF.

Fox News:

• Prince Harry's UN speech condemning America gets ripped to shreds.

CNBC.com:

• Russia is laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory, White House says.
• Netflix loses fewer subscribers than expected and says cheaper ad tier is coming in early 2023.
• Google and Chevron invest in nuclear fusion startup that’s raised $1.2 billion.
• Google will once again test augmented reality glasses in public. 
  

MarketWatch:                 

• The typical S&P 500 CEO made 324 times more than the median-paid worker last year: report.

Zero Hedge:

• Stagflation stagnation? The latest on the twin evils of inflation & recession.
• Place Where Biden Face-Planted Off Bike Is Named 'Brandon Falls' On Google Maps.
• Mexican President Intervenes With Biden, Renews Asylum Offer For Julian Assange.
• Stellantis Ends Its Manufacturing Joint Venture In China.
• 81-Year-Old Fauci Responds To Reports On Him Leaving, Says He's "Not Going To Retire".
• NBC Journalist Laments: "People Don't Trust Us, They Don't Believe Us".
• Wave Of Profit Downgrades May Have Just Kicked Off.
• China Furious Over Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August.
• Seven Major Effects Of COVID-19 On Parents, Students, & Schools.
• GoFundMe For Suspected Gunman's Family Hits $20,000.
• US stocks notched firm gains amid Nord Stream optimism and a weaker buck - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• China's Fuel Exports Plunge.
• Former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Quits NY Congressional Race.
• One Year Ago, Biden Predicted Inflation Would Be 'Temporary'.
• Netflix Surges After Smaller Than Expected Subscriber Loss, Warns Soaring Dollar Is Hammering Results.
• WTI Leaks Lower After Crude, Gasoline Builds.
• NS1 optimism and ECB pivot helps the Dollar weaken and cyclicals prosper - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Treasuries Trapped In 3% World Show Oodles Of Confidence In Fed.
• Biggest Wall Street Bear Turns Bullish After "Record Pessimism", "Full Investor Capitulation".
• Bitcoin, Brent, & Big-Tech Bid As Putin-Promises Trumped Piss-Poor Permits.

Newsmax:

• IMF Says Russian Gas Embargo Could Hit Central Europe Hard.
  
• Putin Visits Iran, Shoring Up Ties With Tehran. 
  
• Sen. Lankford: China Buying US Assets to 'Spy.'

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• DEVELOPING: Washington State GOP Activists Organize Ballot Drop Box Surveillance Teams – DEMOCRATS SHRIEK IN HORROR at Thought of Traffickers Getting Caught on Video.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Says Governors Bussing Illegal Aliens to DC is “Shameful” Behavior (VIDEO).
• Maricopa County GOP Chair Refuses Requests To Appoint Signature Challengers on Early Ballots.
• Clown Show: Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar Also Pretends to be Arrested in Front of Supreme Court (VIDEO).
• REPORT: Biden May Declare ‘National Climate Emergency’ THIS WEEK.
• Senator Warns: Fuel Prices Mean Farmers Can’t Harvest Crops — Analysts Say “Food Shortages” Are Coming.

 The Epoch Times:

• Nearly 60 Percent of Americans Want TikTok Removed From App Stores: Poll.
• Chinese Corn Mill Near US Air Force Base May Have ‘National Security Implications’: Senators.

Twitter: 

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - WEF to deepen cooperation with China on "addressing climate change, promoting industrial transformation and social equity," said Klaus Schwab to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang today.
• @PBSAmerica - Join @NovaPBS as they takes a tasty look at insect foods that could benefit our health and our warming planet. "Edible Insects" premieres tonight at 7.35pm.
  

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 170.75 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 -2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.27 +.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,683.0 +133.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.9 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.50%.

• S&P 500 futures +.34%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABT)/1.14
• (ASML)/3.53
• (BMI)/.52
• (BKR)/.22
• (BIIB)/4.14
• (CMA)/1.77
• (FHN)/.35
• (LAD)/12.14
• (MTB)/3.18
• (NDAQ)/1.92
• (NTRS)/1.93
  

After the Close:

• (AA)/2.63
• (CCK)/2.03
• (CCI)/1.91
• (CSX)/.47
• (DFS)/3.77
• (KMI)/.26
• (KNX)/1.35
• (LSTR)/3.27
• (LVS)/-.28
• (SLG)/1.70
• (STLD)/6.26
• (TSLA)/1.80
• (UAL)/1.88
• (VMI)/3.35
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST:

• Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 5.36M versus 5.41M in May.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +748,000 barrels versus a +3,254,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +961,290 barrels versus a +5,825,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,687,710 barrels versus a +2,668,000 barrel gain the prior week. Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.34% versus a +.4% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• (GME) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK CPI report, 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.