Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.95% +294.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,477.0 -253.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.82 -1.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.2 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.78 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 479.04 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 484.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 114.74 -4.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.22 -4.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 337.98 -4.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.60 +.25%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,938.0 -3.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 44.5 basis points +14.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  120.0 -16.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.94 +.82%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% -5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.25 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -66.40 -12.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -105.0 -10.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 73.7%(+23.5 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 46.2%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 280 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(+1.4 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.5%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +69 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long