Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Factory Activity Sees Shock Contraction on Outbreaks.  
• Pelosi’s Asia Itinerary Skips Mention of Taiwan Stopover.     
• China Banks May Face $350 Billion in Losses From Property Crisis.  
• Australia’s Aggressive Policy Tightening Set to Weigh on Economy.
• The Euro Feels the Pressure as Economy Tips Toward Recession.    
• Europe to Put Key Plank of ESG Rulebook on Hold Amid Infighting.  
• Sydney’s Home Prices Slide for Sixth Month With No Relief Seen.
• Saudi Arabia Economy Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2011 on Oil.  
• Ukraine Latest: Putin’s Naval Ambitions Include Zircon Missiles. 
• US Futures Dip as Fed Comments, China Stir Caution: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Drops as China Slowdown Stokes Concerns Over Demand Outlook.
• Kashkari Says Fed Committed to Slowing Inflation to 2% Goal. Inflation that has continued to exceed the Fed’s expectations is “very concerning,” Kashkari said. Faster cost-of-living increases are becoming more broad-based and aren’t limited to just a few categories, and that explains why the Fed is “acting with such urgency to get it under control and bring it back down,” Kashkari said. “Families are finding it increasingly hard to make ends meet,” said Kashkari, who served in a key financial stability post at the Treasury Department during the 2008-2009 global crisis. “When they go to the grocery store, when they buy necessities, they’re not able to buy as much because they’re getting a real wage cut.” “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis,” Kashkari said. “I’m focused on the inflation data. I’m focused on wage data. And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow. So far, the labor market is very, very strong.” Kashkari said he doesn’t expect the Democrats’ new tax, climate and drugs bill to have much impact on inflation in the next couple of years.“Long term it may have some effect, but over the near term, we have an acute mismatch between demand and supply,” Kashkari said. “And it’s really up to the Federal Reserve to be able to bring that demand down.” Kashkari said that while he’s hearing from multinational companies that they’re making progress in resolving global supply chain bottlenecks, “it’s taking a lot longer than they thought, and than I thought.” “That means we cannot wait until supply fully heals, we have to do our part with monetary policy,” he said.
• Shale Profits Finally Blossoming After Decade of Steep Losses.
  
• Recession-Fueled Bond Rebound Faces Stern Tests Before Next FOMC.
• Banks Used to Provide Relief From Inflation. Now They Profit Big.  
• Apple’s Hot iPhone Quarter Masks a Behind-the-Scenes Slowdown.
• Manchin Pitches Democrats’ Tax and Climate Bill to Silent Sinema.

Wall Street Journal: 

• U.S. Eyes Sanctions Against Network It Believes Is Shipping Iranian Oil.
• The Schumer-Manchin Tax Increase on Everyone. Their Senate bill hits U.S. manufacturing especially hard, and it raises taxes on Americans making less than $400,000 a year. 
• Consumers Have Powered Through the Pandemic—Until Now.
• U.S. Eyes Sanctions Against Network It Believes Is Shipping Iranian Oil.
• How the Covid-19 Pandemic Changed Americans’ Health for the Worse.
• Individual Investors Ramp Up Bets on Tech Stocks.
• Silicon Valley Lurches Between Deep Cuts and Bold Spending.
• The U.S. Is Investing in Chips. So Is the Rest of the World..
• Senate Tax-and-Climate Plan Hinges on Energy Projects.
• China Home Sales Plunge as Mortgage Revolt Deters Buyers.
• Starbucks, Uber, CVS to Report Earnings Amid Shrinking Economy.

Fox News:

• Putin targets US with new naval doctrine, promises warships will be equipped with hypersonic weapons.
• Red state education board doesn't mess around after schools violate CRT ban.
• GOP gov blasts Biden admin tying school lunch funds to transgender policy. 

CNBC:

• Ford CEO offers more clues about its ambitious electric vehicle plans.
• U.S. House Speaker Pelosi begins Asia tour; no mention of Taiwan.
• Google CEO tells employees productivity and focus must improve, launches ‘Simplicity Sprint’.

Zero Hedge:

• Jon Stewart Goes Full 'Useful Idiot' After Dems Sneak $400B Of 'Mandatory' Spending Into Veterans' Health Care Bill.
• San Francisco Real Estate Magnate Robbed At Gunpoint, Fears City 'On Path Of Decline We May Never Recover From'.
• Election Observers Won’t Be Allowed To View Vote-Counting In LA District Attorney Recall: Official.
• Crime Has Become A Key Political Issue That's Stifling New York City's Post-Pandemic Growth.
• Harvard Study: J6 Rioters Were Motivated By Loyalty To Trump, Not QAnon-Belief Or Insurrection Against The Constitution.
• All Eyes On 'Silent' Sinema After Dems Bag Manchin.
• Chinese Stocks Underperform S&P 500 Most Since 2016.
• TME Weekend: The Dollar, Inflation and Recession.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Boise, Idaho Becomes The Canary In The National Housing Market Coal Mine.
• US Frack Growth Constrained In "Perfect Storm".
• Rivian Laying Off Approximately 840 Employees.
• "Statistically Indistinguishable From Zero": Wharton Study Finds 'Inflation Reduction Act' Has No Impact On Inflation.
• Teen Who Assaulted Cop In Harlem Subway Station Released Without Bail And Remanded To Family Court.
• Trump Slams DC Mayor Requesting Deployment Of National Guard Over Influx Of Illegal Immigrants.
• Rumors Of Serbia-Kosovo Clashes Send Border Tensions Soaring, President Addresses Nation.
• Hawaii Electricity Prices To Skyrocket As Final Shipment Of Coal Arrives.
• Worst President Ever? Biden Job Approval Dips To New Low: Gallup.
• They Can't Let Him Back In. Whatever happened in 2020, a supermajority of Republicans doesn’t believe that the election was on the level. The regime is extremely worried about this, which is why the propaganda on it is so intense. They know that to pull off a win in 2024, and have it accepted by the 2020 doubters, the next election is at least going to have to look a lot cleaner than the last. Making it look cleaner is hard to do without actually making it cleaner.
• Hello EU: A Eurosceptic Italian Government Is Coming In September.
• No Farmers, No Food, No Life. The hungry people in countries like Sri Lanka, Haiti, Armenia ,and Panama are the tip of the iceberg, opening the eyes of many citizens worldwide to a fast-growing problem as a result of the lockdowns, mandates and coercive policies in climate change, drought and the Ukraine war.
• Israel's War On Cash Is About To Get More Drastic.
• Zuesse: Why The EU Could End Within A Year.
• China Launches Live-Fire Drills Off Taiwan With US Carrier Group Nearby, As Pelosi's Plane En Route To Asia.
• California Recession Incoming.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Kashkari says Fed is committed to reining in inflation, but ‘we are a long way away’.
  
• Why Goldman’s commodity guru Jeff Currie is bullish on oil despite July’s pullback.

NewsMax:  

• Fox News Banning Trump From Network

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Bombshell Presentation Reveals Identities Of Maricopa County Elections Employees Who Deleted Files From Election Server BEFORE Maricopa County Audit.
• Bill Gates and Other Radicals Pressed Joe Manchin to Vote for Biden’s Behemoth Climate Change Bill.
• HUGE DEVELOPMENT: Supreme Court Finally Ready Hear Argument that Only Legislatures Have Right to Update Election Law – Not Leftist Judges or Executive Branch.
• Colorado Secretary of State Brags About Increasing Ballot Drop Boxes by 65% in the State KNOWING They are a Major Means of Ballot Trafficking (VIDEO).
• Manchin Absurdly Claims Democrats’ Green New Deal Tax-and-Spend Spree Fights Inflation (VIDEO).
• Oops! Ineffective Pfizer COVID Drug Paxlovid Administered to Joe Biden Last Week has 40% Re-Infection Rate — What Was His Doctor Thinking? 
• Lara Logan: They’re Giving Social Security Numbers to Illegal Aliens at the US Border (VIDEO).
• Here We Go: ‘Experts’ Now Warn Cold Showers Are Causing Heart Attacks In Young Adults.
• Would-Be Kavanaugh Assassin Identifies as Trans – Planned to Kill Three Conservative Supreme Court Justices.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Xi Threatens Biden Over Taiwan in 2-Hour Phone Call: ‘Playing With Fire Will Set You on Fire’.

Twitter:

• @JackPosobiec - WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari: “Free will is over”. (video) This is the future Klaus Schwab wants. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 848,091 Reports(+2,483 from prior week) Through July 22nd, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.25 -1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 72.25 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.10 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,607.0 +133.o points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.5 +.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
• S&P 500 futures -.35%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.97
• (CHKP)/1.61
• (GPN)/2.35
• (J)/1.81
• (ON)/1.26
  

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/.48
• (AFL)/1.28
• (ANET)/.92
• (CAR)/11.88
• (BCC)/4.71
• (CF)/5.87
• (DVN)/2.38
• (FANG)/6.68
• (LSCC)/.40
• (MOS)/3.97
• (PINS)/.18
• (RMBS)/.40
• (SANM)/1.11
• (SBAC)/2.59
• (VNO)/.78
• (WMB)/.37
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in May.
• ISM Manufacturing for July is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 53.0 in June.
• ISM Prices Paid for July is estimated to fall to 73.5 versus 78.5 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone PMI report and the KBW Community Bank Investor Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.