Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Getting ‘Seriously Prepared’ for Pelosi Visit to Taiwan.
• US Senators Call for Sanctions on Russian Oil Sales to China.  
• China’s Borrowing Cost Slump Shows Limits of PBOC Policy Easing.
  
• Fed Hike Will Intensify Market Risks for Asia’s Central Banks. 
• Biden Will Speak With Xi on Thursday as US-China Ties Worsen.  
• UK Economy Will Have Slowest Growth in G-7 Next Year, IMF Says.
  
• Pelosi’s Peers Say Don’t Cave to China Over Potential Taiwan Stop.  
• US Futures Climb as Earnings Ease Some Stock Gloom: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as US Stockpiles Shrink Ahead of Fed Meeting.  
• Biden Mulls New Pause on Student Loan Payments, $10,000 Relief.  
• The ‘Free’ Checking Myth Is Costing Consumers Over $8 Billion.  
• US New-Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast to Two-Year Low.  
• New Single-Stock ETFs Are ‘Recipe For Disaster,’ Experts Say.  
• US Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since February 2021 as Inflation Bites.

Wall Street Journal:   

• Medical Education Goes Woke. Future doctors will be obliged to learn how health relates to ‘systems of oppression.’
• Big Brands Keep Raising Prices as Costs Grow.
• GM to Curtail Hiring as Profit Drops Sharply.
• Low-Cost Cities With Strong Economies Remain Attractive as Housing Market Slows.
• Inflation’s Funky Byproducts: Bacon Soap or Dairy Vodka, Anyone?

Fox News:

• Biden will speak with Chinese leader as US official warns 'only a matter of time' before 'major incident'.
• Twitter erupts after VP Harris introduces herself with more than just her name.
• White House responds to high prices by pointing to countries ‘facing famine’.
• Joe Rogan warns listeners about popular app: 'Ends with China having your data'.

CNBC.com:

• Walmart’s slashed profit outlook sends warning about state of the American consumer.
• YouTube has ‘obvious math’ problem as revenue slows dramatically from pandemic highs.
• Twitter to hold vote on Musk merger on Sept. 13.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Texas Instruments, Enphase and more.
• Homebuilders are boosting incentives as they suddenly struggle to sell homes.

MarketWatch:           

• Europe risks protracted gas crisis after Russia makes deeper cuts to natural gas flows, say economists.
  
• Texas Instruments stock rises on earnings beat, outlook.
  
• Chipotle stock rallies after price increases shield chain from rising costs.
  
• Visa tops earnings expectations as travel spending hits recovery milestone.
  
• Here’s the threat to markets if investors ignore ‘nontrivial’ stagflation risk.

Zero Hedge:

• FBI Sabotaged Hunter Biden Evidence To Derail Investigation: Whistleblowers.
• Ukraine Issues Blacklist Of 'Russian Propagandists', Includes US Senator & Prominent Journalists.
• China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist.
• High Gas Prices At Pump Alter Driving Habits, AAA Finds.
• Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023.
• Elizabeth Warren Blasts The Fed For The Recession, Her Solution Is Inflation.
• Will A 'Less Hawkish' Fed Be Enough To Satisfy The Neurotic Stock Market.
• Recent Fauci Claims Dismantled By Former CDC Director - And Fauci's Own Words.
• Layoffs Hit Labs As COVID-19 Testing Dwindles.
• Ukraine Wants Citi, JPMorgan And HSBC Prosecuted For 'War Crimes': Zelensky Aide.
• 'China Wins' If Pelosi Doesn't Go To Taiwan: McConnell.
• Ron Paul: Ugly COVID Lies.
• Waiting for Fed...
• US Actually Sold 6 Million Barrels From SPR To Hunter Biden-Tied China Firm.
• Stocks sold off whilst DXY surged past 107 - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• What's Truly Important? The Global Revaluation Is Accelerating.
• WTI Rises Modestly After Second Straight Weekly Crude Draw.
• Goldman: Markets Are Reverting To "Bad News Is Good News", But More Pain Is Coming.
• Stocks hit on Walmart profit warning & European energy crisis on eve of FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Google Jumps Despite Missing On Top & Bottom Line Thanks To Stronger Ad Sales.
• MSFT Shares Slide After Top- & Bottom-Line Miss; Blames FX, Putin, & China.
• Stocks, Crypto, & Yield Curve Tumble As 'Strong Consumer' Narrative Crushed.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• EU Parliament Member Drops Nuke on Universal COVID Vaccine Campaign – “This is the WORST Crime Ever Committed on Humanity” (VIDEO).
• Obama-Appointed Judge Rules Indiana School Must Allow Transgender Student Back on Girl’s Softball Team.
• BREAKING: Biden DOJ Opens Investigation Into Trump.
• NYC City Is Urging People To Get Their ‘Go Bag’ Ready After Issuing First Nuclear Attack PSA Since The 1960’s.
• US Attorney General Merrick Garland Says He is Open to Prosecuting President Trump (VIDEO).
• Women in Thong Bikinis Twerk on Slip n’ Slide, Guzzle Booze on New York City Subway (VIDEO).
• CNN: John Roberts Worked Up Until Last Minute in Attempt to Flip Conservative Justices on Roe v. Wade Decision.
• America’s VP: “I Am Kamala Harris, My Pronouns are She and Her, and I am a Woman Sitting at the Table Wearing a Blue Suit” (VIDEO).
• STUNNING… New England Journal of Medicine: Unvaxxed COVID Patients Contagious for LESS TIME than Vaxxed COVID Patients.
• “You Can’t Fake This!” – CNN Panel Blasts Biden Regime For Lying About the Definition of a Recession (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• EXCLUSIVE: US Oil Sales to China Could Be ‘Unlawful Activity,’ GOP Lawmakers Tell Biden.
• Bill Gates Funds China’s Scientist Recruitment Project.

Twitter: 

• @TPostMillennial - Tucker Carlson takes a look at the effects the COVID vaccine is being shown to have on people. (video) Tucker Carlson: "It turns out the entire premise behind the most commonly antidepressant drugs appears to be completely wrong." (video)
  
• @VaxxedFox - Yuval Noah Harari of the World Economic Forum: "Very Soon, We Will Be Beyond the God of the Bible" "In the Bible, God is the Creator. His chief power is to create; it creates animals and plants and humans according to his wishes. Now we are gaining this power to create life, just like God." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.5 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 83.25 +4.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.77 +.02%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,755.0 +60.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 -1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.75%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.37%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AEP)/1.19
• (ADP)/1.47
• (AVY)/2.37
• (BA)/-.11
• (BSX)/.42
• (BMY)/1.83
• (BG)/3.20
• (CME)/1.93
• (FSS)/.47
• (GD)/2.73
• (GPC)/2.03
• (GPI)/10.76
• (HES)/2.15
• (HLT)/1.05
• (HUM)/7.68
• (KHC)/.68
• (ODFL)/3.16
• (OSK)/.85
• (OC)/3.33
• (PAG)/4.48
• (ROK)/2.34
• (R)/4.05
• (SHW)/2.74
• (SHOP)/.03
• (SF)/1.63
• (STRA)/.87
• (WM)/1.39
  

After the Close:

• (ALGN)/2.23
• (AVB)/2.37
• (BOOT)/1.15
• (CHRW)/1.99
• (CSL)/4.99
• (CAKE)/.78
• (CTSH)/1.09
• (COLM)/.03
• (FLS)/.25
• (F)/.45
• (FWRD)/1.83
• (LRCX)/7.33
• (META)/2.56
• (NCR)/.60
• (OII)/.12
• (ORLY)/8.99
• (PTEN)/-.03
• (PPC)/1.16
• (QCOM)/2.87
• (RJF)/1.68
• (NOW)/1.55
• (SAVE)/-.42
• (TDOC)/-.59
• (URI)/6.45
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$103.0B versus -$104.3B in May.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.8% gain in May.
• Retail Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.1% gain in May.
• Durable Goods Orders for June is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• Durables Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in May.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.7% gain in May.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,080,290 barrels versus a -445,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -109,000 barrels versus a +3,498,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to rise by +203,710 barrels versus a -1,295,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a -1.2% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate from 1.5-1.75% to 2.25-2.5%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia CPI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.