Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.1 +3.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% -55.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,359.0 +157.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.12 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 -.32%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.8 +1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +3.33%

• NYSE Arms .61 +15.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 516.46 -2.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 529.0 -18.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 131.52 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 207.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 169.05 -1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 373.21 -.45%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.02%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,867.80 -9.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 basis points -3.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.0 basis points +23.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.87 -.46%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.08 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.31% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -53.7 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.60 -4.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 50.8%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 43.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 273 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.7%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.7%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +261 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long