Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Inflation Peaking Hopes, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.7 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.23% +44.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,898.0 -77.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.18 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 -.88%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.6 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +7.3%

• NYSE Arms .70 -40.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.46 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 524.18 +.20%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 529.0 +49.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 132.44 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.12 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 379.49 +2.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 -1.11%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14,516.80 +11.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 22.25 basis points -6.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.05 +.03%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.65 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% +21.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -23.25 basis points (2s/10s) -14.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.2 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.4 +2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 67.5%(+65.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 56.7%(+40.7 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 261 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.2%(+.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long