Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Technical Buying, Bargain-Hunting, Utility/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.1 -1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,058.0 +171.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.28 -.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.2 +.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -9.9%

• NYSE Arms 2.2 +60.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.17 -.03%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 542.35 -1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 494.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 134.40 -1.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.69 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 348.82 +1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.63%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,101.40 +2.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 46.25 basis points -17.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.20 -.4%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.02 -.8%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.85% +17.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -5.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.30 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -63.7 -5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.6 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.9 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.3 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 80.8%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 53.9%(-9.9 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 202 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -76.2%(+3.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +183 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long