Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Is Pariah for Global Investors as Xi’s Policies Backfire.  
• IMF to Cut Global Growth Outlook ‘Substantially’ at Next Review.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Ramps Up; Zelenskiy Recalls MH17 Downing.  
• Sasol Outage Means All South African Oil Refineries Are Now Shut. 
• New Zealand Inflation Outpaces Forecasts at Fresh 32-Year High.
• Asia Stocks May Get Tailwind From US; Dollar Mixed: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Lower as Traders Weigh Mideast Supply After Biden Trip.
• Boeing Vows It Won’t Build ‘Gliders’ as Engine Shortage Expands.
  
• Embraer Sees Supply Chain Snarls Clouding 2022 Jet Delivery Goal.
  
• Once-Hot Strategy of Holding Bitcoin Overnight Loses Some Luster.  
• Nearly 400 Officers Rushed to Uvalde School Shooting, Report Finds.  
• Apple’s New iPad Multitasking System Doesn’t Cut It.  
• Wall Street Set for New ETF Gold Rush as Single-Stock Era Begins.   
• World’s Rate Laggards at ECB and BOJ Take Center Stage: Eco Week.
• US Risks Talking Itself Into a Recession, Moody’s Economist Says.   
• A Goldman Legend, Crypto Star and Top Banker Warn of Next Big Risk.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The West’s Climate Policy Debacle. Utopian energy dreams are doing great economic and security damage.
• The Era of the $200-a-Person Picnic Is Here.
• Fed Prepares to Lift Rates Another 0.75 Percentage Point.
• Slow Start to Earnings Clouds Outlook for Stocks.
• Afghan Economy Crumbles Since Taliban Takeover.
• Dollar Extends Gains With No End to Rally in Sight.
• Supermarkets, Restaurants Hire Security and Limit Hours to Combat Crime.
• Chip Investment Decisions Await Congressional Action on $52 Billion Funding Bill.

Fox News:

• FOX NEWS POLL: Nearly all voters worried about one nationwide issue, expect it will get worse next year.
• Obama adviser tells New York Times that Democrats are likely doomed by inflation: 'Nothing can change'.
• Sean Duffy: People are getting poorer and growing more desperate by the day.
• 77-page report details law enforcement failures in school massacre.

CNBC:

• South Korea is not worried about capital outflows for now, finance minister says.
• From $25 billion to $167 million: How a major crypto lender collapsed and dragged many investors down with it.

Zero Hedge:

• Top Energy Regulator Warns Germany Won't Survive Winter Without Russian NatGas. 
• Watch: As Mask Mandate Looms, LA Hospital Officials Mock COVID "Media Hype".
• Did The Swiss Central Bank Quietly Move Its Gold.
• The 2022 House Midterm By The Numbers.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk.
• Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs. 
• Oil Prices Blamed For Inflation When The Driver Is Really Food.
• New COVID-19 Variant "Sensationalized" By Fauci, White House: Sen. Paul.
• "We Are Not Slaves": Farmers In Italy, Spain, & Poland Join Dutch Protests.
• Skittles Allegedly "Unfit For Human Consumption," Lawsuit Claims.
• Far Fewer Military Families Recommend Uniformed Service: Survey.
• Major Study Confirms COVID Vaccines Alter Women's Periods.
• California Spent $500 Million On Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Training, Report Reveals.
• The Feds Pile Up Vaccine 'Adverse Event' Reports As They Decry Scaremongering Elsewhere.
• Biden Says Saudis Lying After FM "Didn't Hear" Him Confront MbS On Khashoggi's Killing.
• Container Shipping Spot Rates Still Falling: What Will Be The New Normal?
• Trans Swimmer Nominated For NCAA Woman Of The Year Honors.
• Chevron CEO Responds To Biden's Repeated Allegations Of Price-Gouging.
• Dutch Dairy Farmer Faces Having To Cull 95% Of His Cows.
• Four Scenarios: What Happens Next In Italy's Government Crisis.
• Dutch Nitrogen Scientist Questions Basis Of Government Climate Mandates.
• Satellite Imagery Shows Global Crop Declines – Except For Russia And China.
• These Are The Countries With The Highest Default Risk.

NewsMax:   

• Fmr. Israeli PM Olmert: US Has Military Play If Iran Backs Out of Nuclear Deal.
• Rep. Mullin: Biden Trip to Middle East 'an Embarrassment'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Another Video Depicting the the 2020 Election. – This Time Fulton County, Georgia.
• LeBron James, Red Sox Partial Owner, Calls Boston Fans “Racist as F*ck”.
• EXCLUSIVE: Heather Sawyer, Attorney for Feinstein in Kavanaugh Hearing, Now Behind Efforts to Derail Judge Gableman’s Investigation in Wisconsin.
• Dr. Birx Tosses Tony Fauci Under the Bus: COVID ‘Came Out of a Box Ready to Infect’ and Made in China. 
• Canadian Chief of Emergency Medicine, Olympic Sailor, and Marathon Runner Dies Suddenly While on a Run.
• Biden’s America: Trans Soldiers Given Special Privileges in US Military While Christian Soldiers are Persecuted.
• Judge Blocks Biden’s LGBTQ Guidance that Allows Transgender in Girls’ Sports and Bathroom Access.
• EXCLUSIVE: Billions Continue to Be Laundered Through the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to China’s Biowarfare Program.
• NDAA Proposes Funding for Pilot Program on Research and Development of ‘Fake Meats’ for the US Navy.
• 27-Year-Old Transgender Inmate Moved to Youth Facility After Impregnating Two Female Inmates at Women’s Prison.
• For Months Now Key Individuals Involved in the 2020 Election in Wisconsin Still Refuse to Meet with Judge Gableman – What Are They Hiding?
• Rep. Burgess Owens Slams The Left Over Racist Attacks On Black Conservatives (VIDEO).
• Update: Man Who Fatally Stabbed NASCAR Driver Bobby East Killed in Police Shooting.
• CDC Directs Kids To Secretive Online Chat Space To Explore Sex Change Operations, ‘Having Mulitiple Genders,’ The Occult.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Continues to Interfere With US Election: Chinese-American Congressional Candidate.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 839,297 Reports(+4,235 from prior week) Through July 1st, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 172.5 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 86.25 +2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.04 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,193.0 -9.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.6 +.15%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%.
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.75
• (SCHW)/.91
• (GS)/6.70
• (PLD)/1.12
  

After the Close:

• (IBM)/2.29
• (MRTN)/.32
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated to fall to 66.0 versus 67.0 in June.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.

Upcoming Splits

• GOOG 20-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by healthcare and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.