Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.9 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .53% -60.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,886.0 -84.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.68 +.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 +.61% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -12.3%

• NYSE Arms .97 -51.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 490.21 -2.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 461.0 -3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.51 -1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.04 -6.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 354.17 -.06%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.58 +.43%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,420.0 -.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 38.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.55 -.41%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.93 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.45% +6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -22.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.60 +5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -95.80 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.7 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 45.5%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 45.1%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.6%(-1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long