Stocks Lower into Afternoon on China Virus Lockdown/Bubble Bursting Fears, US Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -5.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .57% -73.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,289.0 -351.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.26 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.8 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.92 +24.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.96 +.09%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 514.95 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 459.0 -35.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 128.76 +.43%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 -.35%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 355.03 +3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.71 -.11%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,525.4 -10.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 54.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.92 +.31%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .97 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.62 -.87%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% +10.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -7.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.05 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.0 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.6 -2.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 -4.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 65.1%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 47.6%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 231 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.3%(+.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -87 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +61 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long