Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• World’s Key Workers Threaten to Hit Economy Where It Will Hurt.  
• Milley: China More Aggressive, Dangerous to US, Allies.  
• China on Alert for Evergrande Restructuring Plan After Shakeup.  
• China May Use Tiered-Data Strategy to Prevent US Delistings: FT.
  
• Macau Residents Ordered to Test Daily for Covid for a Week.    
• Favored Emerging-Market Trade Loses Luster on Recession Fears.
• Bolsonaro Starts Campaigning for Election He Says May Be Rigged.  
• Ukraine Latest: Lavrov Leans on UN; Kyiv Puts Out Call for Ships.   
• Recession Worries to Weigh on Stocks as Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Tight Market, Slowdown Fears.
• Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike.
  
• Apple Begins to Show Rare Vulnerability Ahead of Economic Slowdown.  
• Monkeypox ‘Can Be Contained’ in US, White House Doctor Says. 
• Summers Says Fed Needs to Take Strong Action to Curb Inflation.
• Boeing Defense Workers Reject Contract, Plan to Strike Aug. 1.

Wall Street Journal: 

• How the Climate Elite Spread Misery. Most people are more worried about high gas and food prices, which green policies make worse.
• Joe Biden’s Political SWAT Team. The White House does damage control on crime amid growing lawlessness.
• The Fattest ‘Skinny’ Spending Bill Ever. ObamaCare expansions and drug price controls will have huge costs.
• Weak Earnings Reports Aren’t Fazing Investors.
• Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers.
• Gold Hit by Renewed Bets on Higher Yields, Stronger Dollar.
• Covid-19 Lab Companies Retrench as Rapid Tests Take Over.
• Pritzker, Newsom Boost Profiles as Many Democrats Look Beyond Biden for 2024.
• Challenges to Gun Laws Take Off, After High Court Ruling.
• Is Hybrid Work Killing Remote Summer? Yes, but It Doesn’t Have To.
• China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.
• Disney Shows First R-Rated Movies on Disney+.
• Your Home Address and Other Personal Info Are a Search Away. Here’s What to Do About It.
• Pritzker, Newsom Boost Profiles as Many Democrats Look Beyond Biden for 2024.

Fox News:

• Intelligence committee members sound alarm on potential threat targeting Americans' DNA.
• China 'trying to study' Russia's failures; CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion.
• Gore compares climate change deniers to botched Uvalde massacre response.   
• Recession 'is here' and will 'last for awhile,' former White House economist says.

CNBC:

• Bye bye, San Francisco: The top 7 U.S. cities homebuyers are seeking to leave.
• GM is behind Tesla in electric vehicle sales – CEO Mary Barra has bet the company that will change.
• These stocks are best for the long term, top Wall Street analysts say. 

Zero Hedge:

• About 45% Of Small US Businesses Are Freezing Hiring Amid Soaring Inflation, Labor Costs.
• Race Towards Net Zero Will Break Energy Market, Drive Up Energy Price: Analyst.
• ECB's Long Journey Into Currency Collapse Just Got A Lot Shorter. 
• Johnstone: Our Entire Civilization Is Structured Around Keeping Us From Realizing We Can Do This.
• Russia Belatedly Admits Strike On Odessa Port - Says Warship With US Missiles "Destroyed".
• The Day Fauci Reversed Course: February 27, 2020.
• Elon Musk 'Begged Forgiveness' After Allegedly Banging Sergei Brin's Wife: Report.
• Over 25% Of Home-Sellers Dropped Their Price In June In Most Metro Areas.
• Where Central Banks Have Issued Digital Currencies.
• Amusing Tales Of A Coal Bottleneck In Germany & The Failure To Plan.
• Swedish Rent Control Exposes The Problem With Government Price Controls.
• Rabobank: Welcome To Europe's New (Ab)normal.
• The Normalization Of The New Normal Reich.
• Mapped: The Top US Exports & Imports By State.
• Birx Admits She Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Were Never "Going To Protect Against Infection". 
• "Vouchers Are For Vultures": TX Lt Gov Hopeful Vilifies Parents Seeking School Choice.
• Did Russia And China Just Announce A "New Global Reserve Currency"?
• The Talented Mr. Pottinger: The US Intelligence Agent Who Pushed Lockdowns.

NewsMax:   

• Ukraine: Odesa Strike Shows It Will Not Be Easy to Export Grain.
• Dick Morris: Dems Trying to 'Divide and Conquer' GOP.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• What’s Going On? Ireland Joins Canada and Netherlands and Targets Farmers with Carbon Emissions Cuts — Further Endangering Global Food Shortages.
• State Dept ‘Bureaucrat’ Who Proclaimed ‘Kindness’ Cheers High Gas Prices Crippling American Families. 
• President Trump Promises to Rehire Military Fired by Joe Biden for Refusing Experimental Vaccine – With Backpay (VIDEO).
• Another Set-Up? — Protesters with Nazi Flags and DeSantis Signs Show Up Outside TPUSA Event in Florida — Feds Really Need to Up Their Game.
• The Atlantic Council’s ‘Digital Forensics Lab’ – Involved in Rebutting Reporting in the 2020. Election Related to Fraud – Has NO Top People with Expertise in Digital Forensics.
• Famous Bodybuilder and NPC/IFBB Pro Judge “Jerry Ward” Dies Suddenly at Age 46.
• Developing: Luke Robinson, AKA #GingerGun, Was Only Protester Filmed with a Gun on Jan. 6, The FBI Later Removed Him from their Most Wanted List — Was Also Accused of Wearing an Earpiece.
• TRUMP WAS RIGHT: China Placed Huawei Equipment Atop Cell Towers on Purchased Farm Land Near US Military Bases Capable of Disrupting and Capturing Signals.
• A Democrat-Republican Tyrannical Junta Sustained by a Rogue National Security Apparatus Undermines the American Constitutional Republic.
• Greg Gutfeld: January 6th Hearings Have Backfired On Joe Biden And The Democrats (VIDEO).
• WHO Admits Everyone Who Receives a MonkeyPox Vaccine is Part of a “Clinical Trial” to Collect Data on its Effectiveness (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• DC Rally Urges ‘Aggressive Actions’ by Congress to End CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners.  
• Intelligence Committee Member Issues Warning of Possible Threat Targeting Americans’ DNA.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 158.0 -3.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 82.25 -2.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.80 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,084.0 +117.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.8 +1.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (NEM)/.66
• (PHG)/.28
• (BOH)/1.35
  

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.49
• (CDNS)/.97
• (CR)/1.84
• (FFIV)/2.23
• (KALU)/.78
• (LOGI)/.73
• (NXPI)/3.38
• (UHS)/2.09
• (WHR)/5.29
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to fall to -22.0 versus -17.7 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report and the 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.