Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.9 -3.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,433.0 +311.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.21 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.7 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms .43 -71.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.1 -5.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 524.5 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 496.0 +2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 128.93 -3.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.5 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 339.49 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.4%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,352.6 +12.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 52.0 basis points -5.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 basis points +3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  141.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.78 -.5%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.05 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.9% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -4.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.70 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -64.3 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.4 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.9 -2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 79.6%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 48.3%(-5.6 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 231 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(+0.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +29/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -76.4%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +195 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my in my tech/industrial/commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long