Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (KR)/.91

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.7% decline in June.
  

12:00 am EST

• 2Q Household Change in Net Worth.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $16.0B versus $17.85B in June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, German CPI report and the (KMT) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 unch.
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 35.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.5% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 86 New Lows
• 43.6%(-3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 -1.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,611.3 -.7%
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -7.5%
  
• Vix 15.1 +4.6%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.06 -13.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +23.9%
  

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Escalating China Tensions, Technical Selling, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +6.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .93%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.4 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.94 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.76 +.57%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.1 +8.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -1.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +18.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.8 +.91%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 312.95 +.51%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 354.0 -10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.0 +3.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 269.36 +2.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.3 +.66%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.97 +1.59%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.90 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points -7.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 806.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.12%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.1 euros/megawatt-hour -9.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.8 -10.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.35 -.03:  Growth Rate +8.4% unch., P/E 18.7 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% +1.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.67 +.26: Growth Rate +48.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .13 +75.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -73.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.58% -6.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.5%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 50.3%(-4.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.89
• (GIII)/.01
• (TTC)/1.24
  

After the Close: 

• (DOCU)/.66
• (RH)/2.98
• (SMTC)/.02
• (SWBI)/.09
• (ZUMZ)/-.67
• (KFY)/.91
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 234K versus 228K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1719K versus 1725K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,214,250 barrels versus a -10,584,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -427,000 versus a -214,000 barrel decline the prior week.  Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +535,500 barrels versus a +1,235,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.23% versus a -1.2% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, China Trade Data report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Gaming/Lodging Conference, (TREX) investor day, (SYNA) investor day, (FSLR) analyst day, (GH) investor day and the RBC Engineering/Construction/Infra Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -12.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 +.5
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 30.6% of Issues Advancing, 60.6% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 46.5%(+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 -6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.6 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,761.8 -.55%
• 1-Day Vix 8.6 -13.9%
  
• Vix 14.5 +3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -7.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.55 +58.6%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.5 +4.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.25 +2.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.5 +1.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 44.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +-.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and metals/mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.