Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Wednesday Watch

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.75 -2.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.18%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.76 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.8 +1.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.7 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.19%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fedspeak, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -2.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .46% -10.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.3 +1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.4 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.43 +.81%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.4 -1.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 167.0 +19.0
  • Total Put/Call .94 +10.6%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -68.1% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$18.8M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.75 +1.23%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 326.35 -.30%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 317 +11
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.64 +1.5% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 202.62 -.19%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.1 +1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.8 +1.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 125.20 +.16%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.37 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.53 basis points +.43 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 930.0 -7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.8 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.3 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .7 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(67 of 500 reporting) -2.7%+.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.93 -.01:  Growth Rate +10.2% unch., P/E 19.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.70% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.11 +.27: Growth Rate +37.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.8 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -24.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.38% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.3% -1.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 52.6%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 50.7%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -7 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +82 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -5.8% 2) REITs -1.1% 3) Retail -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IBTX, SGMT, PWR, LMT, IMNM, FWRD, LOGI, LNTH, DHI, MMM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DWAC 2) MMM 3) DHI 4) GE 5) GILD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BIVI 2) MMM 3) VRM 4) DHI 5) COIN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.7% 2) Alt Energy +1.8% 3) Social Media +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CSIQ, TKO, INBX, IRBT, CENX, FWONK, CC, NTES, UAL, TROX, BABA, BIDU, LEGN, AA, DWAC, VERA, JD, QFIN, JKS, VZ, RTX, FUTU, WOLF, BEFE, PG, EDU, NOVA, BRO, YUMC, AAOI, TEVA, ZIM, ADM, CPA, AAL, DAL, PTVE, ZGN, ZTO, FLNC and FTNT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RUM 2) TKO 3) DWAC 4) PHUN 5) MMM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SLDP 2) INBX 3) GATX 4) RTX 5) BRO

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABT)/1.19
  • (ASML)/5.16
  • (T)/.57
  • (FCX)/.23
  • (GD)/3.68
  • (KMB)/1.54
  • (MNRO)/.39
  • (EDU)/.26
  • (SAP)/1.72
  • (SF)/1.31
  • (TDY)/5.04
  • (TXT)/1.53
After the Close: 
  • (AEM)/.46
  • (CACI)/4.48
  • (CP)/1.11
  • (CLS)/.68
  • (CCI)/1.79
  • (CSX)/.44
  • (ETD)/.76
  • (IBM)/3.79
  • (KNX)/.44
  • (LRCX)/7.12
  • (LVS)/.61
  • (RJF)/2.24
  • (STX)/-.06
  • (NOW)/2.78
  • (SLG)/.90
  • (TSLA)/.73
  • (URI)/10.70 
  • (PGR)/2.43
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 47.6 versus 47.9 in Dec.
  • S&P Global US Services PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 51.5 versus 51.4 in Dec.
  • S&P Global US Composite PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.9 in Dec.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -907,800 barrels versus a -2,492,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,414,400 barrels versus a +3,083,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +578,200 barrels versus a +2,370,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.58% versus a -.3% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, TD Securities Mining Conference, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, (AYI) annual meeting, (JACK) investor day, (J) annual meeting, (KMI) investor day and the Maxim Healthcare IT Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +18.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 +.7
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 39.8% of Issues Advancing, 57.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .66 -64.9% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$1.0M
  • 74 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
  • 61.6%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.3 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 138.3 -.27%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,035.9 -.09%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (Greed) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.9 -15.3%
  • Vix 13.0 -1.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +23.5%