Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADI)/1.26
• (WOOF)/-.06
• (TGT)/2.06
• (TJX)/.88
• (WSM)/2.74
  

After the Close: 

• (NVDA)/5.60
• (SNOW)/.18
• (SQM)/.58
• (SNPS)/3.05
• (VFC)/.02
• (ELF)/.33
• (GES)/-.39
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to rise to 4.22M versus 4.19M in March.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,922,00 barrels versus a -2,508,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,156,570 barrels versus a -235,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -3,000,290 barrels versus a -45,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.63% versus a +1.9% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The May 1 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 20Y Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, TD Cowen Sustainability/Energy Transition Summit, Wolfe Transport/Industrials Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, (AAP) annual meeting, (CAR) annual meeting, (JLL) annual meeting, (THC) annual meeting, (SCHW) investor day, (CCI) annual meeting, (MCD) annual meeting, (AMZN) annual meeting, (PYPL) annual meeting, (MSTR) annual meeting, (ALGN) annual meeting, (SCHW) annual meeting, (WING) annual meeting, (JWN) annual meeting, (ZTS) annual meeting, B. Riley Investor Conference and the Jefferies Auto Aftermarket Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.1 -.8
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 44.2% of Issues Advancing, 52.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.34 +2.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$209.8M
  
• 130 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 63.4% (-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.8 -1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.11 -.22%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,322.9 +.01%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (Greed) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 6.3 -15.6%
  
• Vix 12.1 -.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -17.5%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.75 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.9 +.02%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.7 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) +5.3% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.91 +.18:  Growth Rate +14.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.76 +.72: Growth Rate +36.4% +.3%, P/E 31.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 +17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -40.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.2% -3.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 76.4%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Afternoon Market Internals

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/36.01
• (EXP)/2.67
• (LOW)/2.95
• (M)/.16
  

After the Close: 

• (TOL)/4.14
• (URBN)/.53
• (VSAT)/.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for May.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Kroszner speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Treasury's Yellen speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, API Wolfe Transport/Industrials Conference, B. Riley Investor Conference, (SUM) annual meeting, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference and the American Thoracic Society Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.9 -3.0
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 56.3% of Issues Advancing, 49.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +36.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$9.6M
  
• 202 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 64.3% (-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.79 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,242.7 +.49%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (Greed) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.0 -6.9%
  
• Vix 12.3 +2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.13 +37.8%