Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CRMT)/-.10
• (BMO)/1.71
• (BF/B)/.49
• (CM)/1.28
• (DG)/.94
• (FKY)/1.21
• (KR)/.97
• (PDCO)/.49
• (SIG)/.32
• (TD)/1.30
  

After the Close: 

• (AGX)/1.26
• (COO)/1.00
• (DOCU)/.87
• (GWRE)/.30
• (HPE)/.56
• (LULU)/2.71
• (WOOF)/-.04
• (SWBI)/.17
• (ULTA)/4.53
• (VSCO)/-.62
• (ZUMZ)/.02 
• (ZUO)/.12
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$75.0B versus -$84.4B in Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1904K versus 1907K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, OPEC meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (TSCO) investor day, (UI) annual meeting, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference and the Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 +4.4
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 48.3% of Issues Advancing, 49.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.30 +19.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$154.2M
  
• 128 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 63.1% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.5 +.12%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,365.6 +1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.3 -12.5%
  
• Vix 13.3 unch.
  
• Total Put/Call .83 +1.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Korean Stocks Fall, Won Recovers After Yoon’s Brief Martial Law.
• Australia’s GDP Growth Disappoints as Households Hunker Down.
• Stocks Fall on Korea Political Chaos; Won Recovers.
• Oil Holds Hefty Advance on OPEC+ Deal Progress, Iran Sanctions.
• Gold Settles After Turmoil in Korea, France Stokes Haven Buying.
• Bitcoin Churns Near $96,000 as Crypto Awaits Trump’s Next Step.
• UnitedHealth Forecasts 2025 Profit In Line With Street View.
• Marvell Rallies After AI Computing Demand Bolsters Outlook.
• Why 2024 Could Be the Biggest Year for Stock Buybacks.
• These Airlines Saw the Most Delays and Complaints in 2024.
• Meta Seeks New Nuclear Reactors to Run US Data Centers.

Zerohedge: 

• Fani Full Release Ordered After Fulton DA Sat On RICO Records.
• Visualizing Ukraine's Collapsing Front Lines Amid The Steady Russian Onslaught .
• Why It's Time To Abolish The Department Of Education.
• Iran Ready To Send More Troops To Syria, But This Could Trigger Deeper Israeli Entry.
• Universities Have A 2025 Rendezvous With Reality.
• Big boom potential: Best in 100 years.
• Majority Supports Social Media Ban For Children.
• Will the real economy please reveal itself...?
• Jury Begins Deliberation In Daniel Penny Trial.
• US indices finished mixed with stocks and bonds choppy on South Korea's martial law declaration and eventual backtrack - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Newsom's Publicly-Funded War Chest: "Trump-Proofing" California Could Prove A Costly Option For Californians.
• South Korea Sparks Chaos Across Markets: Crude, Crypto, & Small Caps Wild; Won Lost.
• Stocks and Bonds chop to South Korea martial law updates ahead of Fed Chair Powell - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following The Path Of Collapsed Empires?
• Solid Start To The Holidays: 5 Highlights From Goldman's Consumer Specialist.

The Wall Stree Journal:

• South Korea President Lifts Martial Law After Parliament Rejects Move.
• The Billionaire, His Mystery Wife and College Football’s Wildest Recruiting Saga.
• His Pardon Lies Were Pure Biden.  
• Hunter Biden’s Pardon: Your Tax Dollars At Work.
• Insurers Collected Billions From Medicare for Veterans Who Cost Them Almost Nothing.
• Senate Republicans Aim to Tackle Border First, Taxes Later.
• BlackRock Strikes $12 Billion Deal for HPS.
• Googling Is for Old People. That’s a Problem for Google.
• Zelensky Signals He’s Open to Negotiating a Peace Deal.
• Are Intel’s Problems Too Big to Fix?
• China’s Central Bank Pledges Supportive Policies For Economy.
• How Nvidia Could Surge to Double Apple’s Market Value.

CNBC:

• Bank of Korea holds emergency meeting after Yoon lifts martial law.
• Salesforce shares rise after earnings beat on revenue, fourth-quarter guidance.
• Dollar stores are struggling to win over bargain hunters — here’s why.
• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

MarketWatch.com:

• South Korea martial-law showdown: What U.S. investors need to know.
• ‘Contrarians aren’t being rewarded,’ and short sellers of U.S. stocks are giving up, says Citigroup.
• U.S. investors watch French budget mess amid memories of eurozone debt crisis.
• Salesforce’s revenue beat may serve as latest shot in the arm for software stocks.
• Top tech stocks are ‘cash machines,’ so keep buying, says the dean of valuation.

Fox News:

• House Dems mock Americans who can't afford groceries in 'tone deaf' social media post.
• 'Obama bros' lash out at Biden 'lying' and making Dems 'look stupid' with Hunter pardon.
• NYC mayor defends vet facing manslaughter charges in subway incident.
• Dem who helped AOC's rise to power says rep 'disappeared' from crime-plagued district.

Newsmax:

• Trump Team Agrees With DOJ to Begin Background Checks.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BOMBSHELL: Police Believe They Have Audio of OJ Simpson Confessing to the Murders of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman.
• JUST IN: Woke Gun-Grabbing ‘Tyrant’ Chad Chronister, Who Also Arrested a Pastor During COVID, Withdraws As Trump’s DEA Pick Following Conservative Backlash.
• AMERICA LAST: Biden Pledges Another $3 BILLION Plus Over $1 Billion of Humanitarian Support to Africa in Rambling and Slurred Speech as Americans Continue to Struggle From Hurricane Flooding (VIDEO).
• Islamic Republic’s Parliament Officially Passes Strict “Chastity and Hijab” Laws.
• RINO Sen. Susan Collins Leaves Door Open to Confirming Kash Patel as FBI Director.
• Tren De Aragua? Eight Hispanics Shot in House in Chicago Town Known for Housing Illegals, Shooter Yet to Be Apprehended – Police Source Says Possible “Act of Retaliation” After One of The Victims Allegedly Murdered Someone in Venezuela.
• National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Says “Massive Surge” of Military Equipment Headed to Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office.
• JUST IN: Majority Democrat Miami-Dade County Commission Votes to Name Street “President Donald J. Trump Avenue” After Trump’s Historic Victory.
• CNN’s Harry Enten Seems Surprised That Trust in the FBI Plunged Following J6 “The Lowest Number This Century” (Video).
• JUST IN: Wisconsin Judge Enforces Subpoena Against ActBlue in Lawsuit Over Fraudulent Use of Information for ActBlue Finance Money Laundering AKA “Smurfing”.
• US Housing Crisis Concealed by Government and Mass Media.
• Chinese Spy Lover Eric Swalwell Defends Hunter Biden Pardon.

The Epoch Times:

• South Korea Martial Law Decree Spotlights Communist Infiltration.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• In 2023 alone, illegal immigration cost taxpayers $150.7 billion. To put this in context with other costs (adjusted for inflation): -World War I: $334 billion. -Apollo Space Program: $257 billion . -Manhattan Project: $30 billion. -Panama Canal: $15.2 billion. -Hoover Dam: $1 billion. The scale of spending on illegal immigration boggles the mind!

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY SH*T! NYC Mayor Eric Adams just dared the left to "cancel" him over working with Border Czar Tom Homan and Trump. "Cancel me because I'm going to protect the people of this city." He says illegals are "committing crimes, robberies, sh*oting at police, r*ping innocent people." (video)

• @MarioNawful

• TUCKER FROM MOSCOW: "WE'RE IN A HOT WAR WITH RUSSIA AND NOBODY'S TALKING". Fresh from Moscow, Tucker Carlson drops a bombshell claim: The U.S. military recently killed Russian soldiers on Russian soil, yet most Americans don't know we're essentially at war. He says there's zero communication between Washington and Moscow—first time that's happened in decades. Claims the U.S. Embassy blocked his Zelensky interview attempts but just wrapped a chat with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov about whether Trump's return might end the conflict. Meanwhile, Tucker says we're closer to nuclear war than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. (video)

• @BasedMikeLee

• BREAKING: @EPA Advisor Admits ‘Insurance Policy’ Against Trump is Funneling Billions to Climate Organizations, “We’re Throwing Gold Bars off the Titanic”. “It was an insurance policy against Trump winning.” “Get the money out as fast as possible before they [Trump Administration] come in ... it’s like we’re on the Titanic and we’re throwing gold bars off the edge.” (video)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• EVERYTHING about ‘Covid’ was FRAUDULENT. Re-labelling ‘Flu Season’ as a ‘Pandemic’ to FORCE the WORLD to take an ‘Experimental Injection’ is a WAR CRIME. (graph)

• @EndWokeness

• BREAKING: Allexis Ferrell sentenced to 30 months for EATING A CAT in Ohio. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Joe Biden pardons Hunter Biden and no accountability for openly selling America to the highest bidders. Rep Byron Donalds on National TV saying they’ve found 20 Shell Companies for Joe Biden and Hunter Biden used for money laundering. ‌ “We’re up to over 20 shell companies”. The committee even came to the conclusion that there were no legitimate businesses the Biden’s owned tied to these shell accounts, they were used to strictly sell out America, “There is no business structure around this family, except politics.”

• @BarbaraOneillAU
  

• IMPORTANT: The food supply of every American is going to start being intentionally poisoned with mRNA genetic modifications being fraudulently called “vaccines.” They will be using mRNA vaccines in pigs and cows. (pic)

• @DC_Draino
  

• Why would Fulton County sue to hide election records?! The only reason you hide election data is b/c you’re hiding fraud and everyone knows it. Insane election corruption in Georgia and Brian Kemp just lets it happen. Disgraceful.

• @WallStreetSilv
  

• The US govt brings in about $5 trillion per year in revenue from taxes, fees and tariffs. The US govt is on pace to spend about $1.4 trillion for interest payments on the $36 trillion in debt during 2025. That will be about 28% of all govt revenue going to interest payments. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.5 -1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 +2.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.1 -.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.34 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.53 +.16: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 32.8 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +15.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 4.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 60.7%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 44.7%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.2% 2) Shipping +2.3% 3) Video Gaming +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• JANX, CRDO, ARQQ, PPTA, CNM, AOSL, MP, NBIS, ALAB, SHO, MNSO, UPST, FRO, APP, PTVE, JKS, PLTR, MXL, GPRK, PEB, FVRR, SNAP, TEVA, CENX, DAN, BTDR, CRESY, EDU, AXON, RLJ, VIST, SIMO, SKX, MSGE, TLK, OS, LOMA, TEN, FIVE, T, SMLR, MBLY, PK, INSW, DY, ATAT, MAG, DB and INSW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHRS 2) CRDO 3) MP 4) NGD 5) PL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JANX 2) CRDO 3) CTRN 4) SHO 5) CNM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLC 3) VGT 4) XLP 5) IYC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.87
• (CHWY)/.06
• (DLTR)/1.07
• (FL)/.40
• (HRL)/.42
• (THO)/.71
  

After the Close: 

• (AVAV)/.76
• (AEO)/.46
• (FIVE)/.17
• (CHPT)/-.17
• (PVH)/2.59
• (SNPS)/3.30
• (VRNT)/.43
• (GIII)/2.28
• (RH)/2.66
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 150K versus 233K in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 55.7 versus 56.0 in Oct.
• The ISM Prices Paid Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 58.1 in Oct.
• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book report release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (ANET) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Musalem speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, UBS Tech Conference and the UBS Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST