Thursday, December 05, 2024

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @TonySeruga
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @MarioNawful
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @MJTruchUltra
  • @Breaking911
  • @thefoodbabe
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • Meanwhile in Ireland. The construction of dozens of migrant camps continues - these facilities are huge & will hold thousands of fighting age military men, all against the wishes of the Irish public. Question is why. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @naomirwolf
  • The Brian Thompson (RIP) shooting story has all the hallmarks of a directed narrative. Somehow video and still images all appear magically from many locations in the custody of the NYTimes. The shooter's whereabouts before and after are mapped in nanoseconds. A cellphone is dropped in an alley! NYPD spokespeople declare a targeted shooting before any investigation, and warn that healthcare CEOs should get security. Feels like a threat to others to me.
  • @WallStreetMav
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Airline Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.56%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.44 +.06:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.73 +.17: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 2.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.29% +13.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.9% +1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 58.9%(-4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.9%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -3.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 3) Semis -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ESTC, FL, MRVL, MSTR, CCK, MCHP, AS, GMS, INTC, TD, FI, ANSS, WLY, BALL, SMLR, KFY, UBER, LYFT, ZUMZ, NCNO, SIG, S, CGON, SNPS, AEO, AVAV, ACMR, AAOI, CAL and ZJK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AEO 2) HPE 3) XLB 4) S 5) ACMR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNPS 2) AEO 3) SIG 4) AEHR 5) S
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XLY 5) VHT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.4% 3) Banks +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ORIS, SOUN, VRNT, MEI, BBW, CAPR, SEI, AAL, SYM, BTDR, BF/B, FIVE, ZBIO, MIR, GRAL, NFE, TAC, IONQ, RYAAY, HUT, APLD, RBLX, APP, GRPN, CM, PDCO, BBVA, DEO, BILL, STLA, GLNG, RIVN, IBN, TSLA, BMO, UTI, ING, PLTR and MRNA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BLUE 2) SNPS 3) XLB 4) JMIA 5) TAC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VRNT 2) FIVE 3) BF/B 4) TSLA 5) BBW
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) KRE 4) XLU 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (GCO)/.29
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is estimated to rise to 218K versus 12K in Oct.
  • The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in Oct.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Dec. is estimated to rise to 73.3 versus 71.8 in Nov.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Dec. is estimated to rise to +2.7% versus +2.6% in Nov.

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for Oct. is estimated to rise to $10.0B versus $6.002B in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, American Society of Hematology Meeting and the (CPRT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 -1.3
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 53.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .77 -55.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$9.4M
  • 126 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 62.1% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.4 +.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.3 +.14%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,874.5 +.52%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 7.9 -1.6%
  • Vix 13.5 +.1%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -8.9%